An economically turbulent year continues to put pressure on the gaming industry, with major platform holders setting a minimum retail price of $70 for AAA games.
Meanwhile, rising development costs, rising hardware prices and economic uncertainty are fueling concerns about further price inflation in 2026.
To better understand the year ahead, we asked top analysts whether they expect prices to rise (or, more optimistically, fall) and what the long-term implications of the pricing precedents set by major platform holders such as Nintendo will be.
Kantan games founder Dr Serkan Toto would not be surprised if prices continued to rise, describing it as “a new normal in which equipment prices no longer fall over time, but remain stable for a few years at best.”
As for why this is likely to happen, Video Game Insights' Vic Bassey cites rising AAA development costs, tariff uncertainty, and rising hardware costs as the predominant factors.
Looking specifically at the AAA segment, Alinea Analytics' Rhys Elliott suggests that in recent years the industry has “firmly established a new psychological minimum of $70 for premium releases” – a benchmark set by major platform holders Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo.
Piers Harding-Rolls of Ampere Analysis agrees that a strong precedent has been set, but he doesn't think prices will rise further.
“Do I expect base game sales to rise again in 2026? No, I don’t think so,” he says. “But there is already room in the market for AAA games to move to $80 if necessary.”
However, Harding-Rolls highlights the rise of in-app purchases (IAPs) and in-game monetization, and the impact both will have on the industry in the new year.
“As this is where most of the spending in the overall gaming market is generated, further inflation could occur in this part of the monetization structure. Overall, I think it's easier to change the price of an IAP package, and raising prices on a cheap package is easier to do without disrupting player sentiment.”
Nintendo's influence
Nintendo decision to sell its flagship game Mario Kart World for Switch 2 for $80 has captured the headlines and minds of consumers this year. But how will this impact the industry as a whole in 2025?
Analysts agree that while the platform owner's decision may have caused a stir among consumers, it was not unexpected given the turbulent market conditions.
“Nintendo used inflation, tariffs and the general economic situation to force changes in their pricing policy, and they succeeded,” says Toto. “The consumer response of a few percent of their consumer base to [social media] certainly noticed by Nintendo, but does not change their overall position.”
Bassey called Nintendo's decision a “wise strategic move” that capitalized on the “frantic anticipation for Switch 2.” He notes that the price increase has not had a negative impact on the game's performance, with sales of Mario Kart World surpassing those of its predecessor Mario Kart 8 in the first four months of release.
“This indicates that Nintendo's own offerings, and especially the Mario Kart series, have a very loyal player base, and with this level of engagement, Nintendo can afford to raise prices. In fact, we can expect price increases for the next iterations of both the Mario and Legend of Zelda series.”
More developers could follow in Nintendo's footsteps
Elliott predicts that the “biggest and most valuable AAA franchises” will follow Nintendo's lead next year through 2028 to benefit from next-gen consoles.
“Sony, Nintendo and Xbox used the post-generation upgrade period to justify price increases,” he notes. “Once a few major blockbusters set the $80 price point, it will quickly become the new desirable level for high-end, non-real-time games from third-party publishers looking to maximize the return on huge development investments. But again, things will vary.”
One such blockbuster is Grand Theft Auto 6, which is scheduled for release in November 2026. after numerous delays. Some experts have predicted that the highly anticipated game could cost $100.but how likely is it to happen?
“Sony, Nintendo and Xbox used the post-generation upgrade period to justify price increases”
Rhys Elliott, Alinea Analytics
Toto and Harding-Rolls predict that the standard version of the game will cost between $70 and $80, while deluxe editions and digital bundles could easily push the price to over $100.
Bassey, meanwhile, believes that “if there was a game that would break the $100 threshold,” it would be GTA 6.
“However, this will require Take-Two Interactive and any other publishers to weigh the pros and cons of what impact this will have on their long-term buyer funnel,” he says. “Given the level of excitement surrounding the game, it would make sense for Take-Two to pursue a price increase, although reaching $100 may be too high a threshold.”
Elliott adds that Rockstar's “long-term cash cow” is GTA Online, not the base game.
“Limiting the overall target audience at launch with an aggressively high base price will hinder the important migration of players from GTA 5 to GTA 6 and slow down the growth of the GTA Online user base,” he says.
AA studios and indie studios will keep the lower price
Elliott emphasizes that while rising prices for AAA projects “create an opportunity for AA and indie studios to raise their own prices,” it is in those studios' interests to maintain “a lower price as the best competitive strategy.”
“The core value of affordable pricing is differentiation, allowing AA games like Clair Obscur: Expedition 33, Dying Light The Beast, Arc Raiders and Split Fiction to attract consumers looking for a high-quality experience without the significant financial commitment required by $70 or $80 blockbusters. This approach leverages the power of volume, which has proven extremely profitable for the indie segment.”
Harding-Rolls agrees and also highlights the range of premium prices offered to consumers, regardless of studio level.
“From indie games under $10 to mid-range AA games in the $40 to $50 range, gamers have access to a huge selection of very good premium games; discounts, which for second-tier AAA games often occur several weeks after launch and which have a significant impact on average sales prices; and the inclusion of games in subscription services, giving gamers a lower price for access to premium games.”
Could game prices fall in 2026?
Toto doesn't see a future in which game prices come down.
“We live in a world where Nintendo in the US has increased the price of an eight-year-old console, the original Switch, from $300 to $340,” he notes. “A simple pair of Switch Joy-Cons has gone from an already astronomical $80 to $90. “I don’t foresee a scenario in which prices could come down at all anytime soon.”
Elliott says the only thing that could lead to a significant and sustained drop in AAA prices is “a major shift in the underlying economics of development and consumer behavior.”
“The most influential factor would be a severe global recession or prolonged cost of living crisis, which would sharply reduce consumer disposable income and lead to a contraction in the market.”
Harding-Rolls believes that the success of games like Clair Obscur may prompt some publishers to experiment with pricing. “Competition in the premium gaming market is very tough. In addition to the discounts already mentioned, which are widespread, the success of some breakthrough games in the $40 to $50 price range may encourage more publishers to consider lower prices on some games.”
“If customers resist price increases, publishers may have to reconsider raising prices as a viable strategy.”
Vic Bassey, Video Game Insights
However, looking at the broader economic landscape, Bassey believes a reversal of current trends is unlikely. “We’re not seeing gas, grocery or movie ticket prices go down, so that’s not going to happen for games.”
According to Bassey, for game prices to start coming down, a “more stable economic environment” is needed to keep studios from regularly raising prices, as well as from reducing production costs. Tackling rising production costs is something that has been on executives' minds throughout 2025, whether or not it will be achieved. acceleration of developmentreducing team size or rely more on AI.
“However, the biggest impact on industry price declines will likely come from consumers,” Bassey concludes. “If customers react negatively and actively resist price increases, publishers may be forced to reconsider price increases as a viable strategy.”
