Yesterday I read a group email from Capitol Hill essentially predicting the extinction of the Democratic Party following what is supposed to be a Supreme Court decision striking down what remains of the Voting Rights Act. A less apocalyptic but still terrifying version of this argument appeared in evening article posted by Nate Cohn in The Times. Before we get into the issue of party affiliation and vote counting, let's first discuss what this means, essentially ending political representation for African Americans in the states of the old Confederacy. Most, if not all, majority-minority districts disappear and Republican state legislatures are free to draw districts that distribute/dilute African American voters into safe Republican districts. Cohn says it's likely that Democrats could permanently lose (as much as permanently can) 12 House seats. This is in addition to the enforcement restrictions happening in a number of states across the country. The overall scenario is that the House becomes an even bigger electoral challenge than the Senate, and can be won, but only in a generational wave style election.
Is this plausible? This is true?
