Will quantum be bigger than AI?

There's an old saying among tech journalists like me: You can either explain quantum mechanics accurately or in a way that people understand, but you can't do both.

That's because quantum mechanics, a strange and somewhat theoretical branch of physics, is a fiendishly difficult concept to grasp.

It involves tiny particles that behave in strange ways. And this strange activity opened up the potential of a whole new world of scientific superpower.

Its staggering complexity is likely one of the factors why quantum technology has proven to be less significant than the current rock star of technology: artificial intelligence (AI).

This is despite a steady stream of recent major quantum events. advertisements from tech giants such as Microsoft and Google and others.

Generally speaking, we tend to think of quantum more often in the form of hardware, such as sensors and computers, whereas AI is more software-based—it requires hardware to operate.

Put them together, and one day we may have a new form of technology that will be more powerful than anything we've ever created… although the word “may” plays an important role in this particular forecast, warns Brian Hopkins, vice president and principal analyst for emerging technologies at research firm Forresters.

“The potential is there, but the decision hasn’t been made yet,” he says.

“The initial experiments are promising, but they all indicate that we need much more powerful quantum computers and further innovative research to effectively apply quantum effects to AI.”

In terms of cost, both are profitable. By 2025, the value of the quantum sector could reach $97 billion (£74 billion). According to research group McKinsey.

Meanwhile, the cost of AI is projected to be in the trillions. But they both live in the shadow of hype and bursting bubbles.

“I used to think quantum computing was the most hyped technology until the AI ​​craze happened,” jokes Mr. Hopkins.

In mid-October, analysts warned that some key quantum stocks could drop to 62%, while murmurs about an artificial intelligence bubble grow louder.

Quantum and AI have another thing in common: errors. While we're now largely familiar with the “hallucinations” of generative AI tools, quantum technology suffers from a different kind of bug.

This is because the state in which the particles have to work is very fragile. The slightest change in the environment, including light and noise, can disrupt them.

Maintaining such an environment is difficult. This week, Elon Musk suggested at X that quantum computing would work best on “permanently shadowed lunar craters”.

Quantum computers are nothing like traditional machines. There is no design project, but at the moment they are very large.

They exist in laboratories, and the most common format seems to include a jellyfish-like shape.

They require extremely low temperatures and lasers. This is not something you are likely to have at home, let alone carry in your pocket.

They're also a little shiny—researchers have discovered that using synthetic diamonds to create qubits, which are the building blocks of quantum computers, allows them to operate at temperatures much closer to room temperature.

Luxury jewelry maker De Beers has a subsidiary, Element 6, which claims to have produced the world's first general-purpose quantum-quality diamond in 2020. And she worked with Amazon Web Services to optimize artificial diamonds for future quantum machine networks.

All of these machines are now in their infancy, with supposedly around 200 of them around the world (though China hasn't revealed how many it has) – but that hasn't stopped quantum experts from making bold claims about their potential.

“We as consumers will feel the impact of quantum computing in almost every aspect of our lives,” said Rajib Hazra, chief executive of Quantinuum, a company recently valued at $10 billion. He spoke to the BBC Tech Life podcast.

“In my opinion, the field of quantum computing, when you look at applications, is as big, if not bigger, than AI.”

Professor Sir Peter Knight is one of the UK's leading quantum experts. “The work to calculate the age of the universe, even on the most powerful supercomputer, can probably be done in seconds,” he told Dr Jim Al-Khalili on BBC Radio 4's The Life Scientific.

So what are these giant, life-changing things that machines will be able to do when they're ready?

As with artificial intelligence, there is a lot of quantum research being done to improve healthcare.

Quantum computers will one day be able to effortlessly recycle endless combinations of molecules to create new drugs and cures, a process that currently takes years and years with classical computers.

To give you an idea of ​​that scale: In December 2024, Google unveiled a new quantum chip called Willow, which the company claims can solve a problem in five minutes that would currently require the world's fastest supercomputers. 10 septillion years – or 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years to complete.

Hazra says this could pave the way for personalized treatment, where instead of a standard prescription, you receive a specific medicine that is specifically designed for your individual body and is most likely to work for you.

And this applies to broader chemical processes, such as new ways to make fertilizer more efficiently, which could potentially be a huge boost for the world's farmers.

Quantum sensors, which use the principles of quantum mechanics to measure things incredibly accurately, already exist and are used in atomic clocks.

In 2019, scientists at the University of Nottingham placed them in a prototype device the size of a bicycle helmet and used them in a new system to non-intrusively scan the brains of children with conditions such as epilepsy.

“The foundations of human cognition are laid in the first decades of life, but the way we study them has always been limited by limitations in brain scanning technology,” researcher Ryan Hill said at the time.

“A particular challenge has always been movement and the fact that large traditional stationary scanners have always required patients to remain completely still.

“Not only does this not provide an accurate picture of brain function in the natural environment, but it also places severe restrictions on who can be scanned, with children presenting the greatest challenge.”

Last year, scientists at Imperial College London tested an alternative to GPS satellite navigation, called the “quantum compass”, on the city's underground subway network.

GPS doesn't work underground, but it works. The idea is that it can more accurately track and locate objects anywhere in the world, both above and below ground, unlike GPS signals which can be blocked, jammed and affected by weather.

“The UK economy relies on £1 billion per day of GPS for location, navigation and time – often referred to as a defense requirement – ​​but all of our financial transactions require a timestamp for authentication,” says Dr Michael Cuthbert, director of the UK's National Center for Quantum Computing.

“Using quantum clocks, gyroscopes and magnetometers allows us to ensure our vital navigation systems are resistant to interference and tampering.”

National Grid is investing in quantum research to see if it can help with so-called “load shedding” – how to maximize the output of thousands of generators from different energy sources as demand rises and falls in real time, preventing blackouts.

And Airbus has partnered with British quantum firm IonQ to test quantum algorithms designed to load cargo onto planes more efficiently. An airplane can use thousands of kilograms of extra fuel if its center of gravity shifts only a small amount.

So far so good – but we need to talk about secrets too.

It is widely accepted that current forms of encryption – the ways we store both personal data and official secrets – will one day be destroyed by quantum technology, which will be able to process every possible combination in record time until the data is decrypted.

It is known that nations are already stealing encrypted data from each other with the goal of one day being able to decrypt it.

“It's called 'harvesting' now and deciphering it later,” says Professor Alan Woodward, a cybersecurity expert at the University of Surrey.

“The theory of how to break current forms of public key encryption awaits the arrival of a truly workable quantum computer,” he adds.

“The threat is so high that it is suggested that everyone needs to implement quantum-resistant encryption right now.”

The moment at which such a computer exists is sometimes called the Q-day. Estimates for when this might happen vary, but Forrester's Brian Hopkins says it could be soon—around 2030.

Companies like Apple and secure messaging platform Signal have already implemented what they consider post-quantum encryption keys, but they cannot be applied retrospectively to current traditionally encrypted data.

And this is already a problem. In October, Daniel Shiu, former head of cryptographic engineering at GCHQ, Britain's intelligence, security and cybersecurity agency, told the Sunday Times that “it is likely that the data of almost all UK citizens will be compromised” by state-sponsored cyberattacks carried out by China – with the data stored long enough to be decrypted and studied.