Why Hurricane Melissa is one of the strongest Atlantic storms ever

Jamaica has been directly affected by what may happen the strongest hurricane in history to hit the Atlantic Oceanproduction forecast rain up to a meter (40 inches) over its mountains – and there is little doubt that global warming made Hurricane Melissa as strong as possible.

The warm waters that contributed to its intensification were 500 to 700 times more likely to be the result of climate change, scientists said. initial estimates by Daniel Guilford and his colleagues at Climate Central, US non-profit organization.

“The '500 to 700 times more likely' number is large,” Guilford says. “It really shows how unlikely the extremely high temperatures we are seeing around Melissa would be without human-caused climate change.”

Tropical cyclones such as Melissa powered by warm water. The warmer the sea surface, the more water vapor is produced when storms move over it. As moist, warm air rises, water vapor begins to condense, releasing latent heat. This heats the air and causes it to rise higher, causing more condensation and so on. It is the source of energy that powers tropical cyclones.

In the central Caribbean, where Melissa quickly intensified before the Category 5 hurricane, sea surface temperatures were 1.4°C (2.5°F) warmer than normal for October. These abnormal temperatures also extend to unusual depths, so these waters contain enormous amounts of additional thermal energy.

This means that as Melissa churns up the sea and brings deeper water to the surface, sea surface temperatures remain high. On the contrary, where there is only a shallow layer of warm water, colder waters are brought to the surfacecutting off the storm's power supply.

“The perfect storm has occurred that has led to Hurricane Melissa's colossal strength: warm ocean that has helped it intensify rapidly over the past few days, but it is also moving slowly, meaning more rain could fall as it moves over land.” Leanne Archer at the University of Bristol, UK, the statement said. “Most of these conditions have been exacerbated by additional heating in our oceans and atmosphere due to climate change.”

The combination of high winds and heavy rain could cause catastrophic damage in Jamaica. Three people already died is preparing for the storm, which is expected to make landfall around 11:00 or 12:00 local time.

“This is one of the worst-case scenarios.” Hannah Cloke at the University of Reading, UK, the statement said. “The entire country will be deeply and indelibly scarred by this monster storm. It will be a long and grueling recovery for those affected.”

Studies of previous disasters have shown that such events can slow economic growth for decades thereafter. Economists have suggested that a quick recovery or even additional growth spurred by recovery efforts is possible, but these ideas I was basically wrong.