Why does Pierre Poilievre think next time will be different? – National

People who know Pierre Poilevre say that what you see is what you get, that Pierre is Pierre, and he is not going to change now.

Back in the 2022 Conservative election campaign, this was presented as a positive feature. Unlike Erin O'Toole, the recently ousted Conservative faction, Poilievre would not say something to party voters and then moderate or change his position to appeal to the wider public.

But while sticking to your principles can be admirable, it doesn't make winning an election any easier, especially if Canadian voters have already rejected you once.

And while these principles may not change, the context is constantly changing. Poilievre led then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in opinion polls earlier this year, only to lose his double-digit lead in the polls and in the election to Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Poilievre has shown no evidence he intends to change tactics to attract more voters, recently telling reporters he doesn't feel the need to reflect on his leadership style after losing one Liberal MP and another to unexpected retirement. But while there are obvious dangers in using the same scheme that led to the election defeat, there are also dangers for Poilievre in changing the situation.

Recent research published by the Consortium for Electoral Democracy suggests that Poilievre motivates his party's electorate more than a “moderate” Conservative leader.

“A more moderate, grassroots alternative to (Pouilievre) … we can't guarantee that they will get the same share of the vote that even Poilievre got,” Abacus Data CEO David Coletto said in an interview.

“If I liked Mark Carney, and now I have a Conservative leader who looks like Mark Carney, why would I choose the lesser version?”

The fact remains that the Conservative approach in 2025 was not enough against a tired Liberal Party with an untested leader. What makes them think that this will be enough in the next election?

Part of the problem Poilievre finds himself in as the Conservative base prepares to gather in Calgary this January is that while members of his own party adore him, voters outside the tent are decidedly less enthusiastic. And even if he had been inclined to change his approach or tone to appeal to a wider audience (and there was little evidence of this), Poilievre risked his own cooling towards him by the rank and file.

Conservative insiders told Global News that after the disappointing defeat in the April election, Poilevre's office was focused solely on the January party convention – and its leadership review vote. Poilievre needs strong support from the party's grassroots to become the first Conservative leader since Stephen Harper to get a second chance.

But while Poilievre is focused on the party's rank and file, there are signs he is losing ground among the wider electorate.

A recent opinion poll showed that Poilievre's popularity among the wider electorate is declining, even though Conservative Party voters remain firmly behind his leadership.

On Tuesday, the Angus Reid Institute released data showing 60 per cent of Canadians have an unfavorable view of Poilievre, while just 34 per cent have a positive view of him – a net score of negative 26, the worst score he has received since becoming the leader in 2022.

More respondents intend to vote for the Conservatives (38 percent) than for Poilievre, suggesting the Conservative leader could hurt his party's chances of winning the next election.

Abacus Data poll results provided to Global News indicate where Poilievre may be losing support.

In November 2024 — near the lowest point for the Liberals under Trudeau — Abacus found that Poilievre was most popular among voters in the Conservative heartland of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but also had a net positive impression in Ontario (+7 per cent), among men (+8 per cent) and in all age groups except voters aged 60 and over.

Poilievre enjoyed greater net support among higher-income respondents, while lower-income Canadians had an unfavorable view of the Conservative leader.

A year later, those benefits appear to have been erased. According to the November 2025 Abacus poll, Poilievre is now viewed unfavorably in Ontario (-4 per cent), unfavorably in all age groups except 30-45, and has a neutral rating among men.

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The only income group that had a positive impression of Poilievre were those earning more than $100,000 annually (+2 percent).

What hasn't changed over the past year is Poilievre's support among Tory voters, whose net popularity stands at 70 percent, according to Abacus. People who voted for other parties didn't like Poilievre in 2024 – now they Really I don't like him.

“There's a lot of enthusiasm for Poilievre among conservatives, but almost everyone else is saying, 'I really, really don't like this guy.' Poilievre no longer has a middle ground,” Coletto said.

Well, sure, a Poilievre supporter might say, but who cares if liberals don't like him? That's fair, but the Conservatives won 41 percent of the popular vote in 2025, the party's best showing in its modern history.

It was not enough against Carney's resurgent Liberal Party and the moribund NDP, which won just seven seats.

The popularity of a Liberal prime minister won't last forever, and the New Democrats could find new life with a new leader – and against a Liberal Party less interested in sending progressive messages. But conservatives who bank on these two factors are essentially leaving their political destiny to forces beyond their own control.

This approach – Poilievre is essentially playing the same game again and hoping that circumstances will be somehow better – at least has the advantage of giving the Conservative Party, give or take, two MPs. Because trying to expand the tent also comes with risks.

In a paper on policy options, scholars Laura Stevenson, Michael McGregor and Alvaro Pereira Filho, using public opinion data collected in May and June 2024, found that respondents were less likely to vote Conservative under former leadership contenders Leslyn Lewis or Jean Charest.

In other words, even if the Conservatives' high mark in the 2025 election was not enough to form a government, they might not have succeeded even without Poilievre and his abrasive political style.

“His support ceiling is pretty much where it is now,” Coletto said.

“If that thinking doesn't change, then essentially the Conservative strategy is that we're going to hold that 40 percent together no matter what, we're not going to let it flow to the right or the center, and then we hope that 40 percent will be enough to win the election.”