Since the first World Series in 1903, 171 starters have pitched more than 50 innings in a playoff series, but only four have posted a rotation ERA below the 2025 Dodgers' mark of 1.40. Three of those rotations took place between 1911 and 1920, so the 1983 Baltimore Orioles (1.31 ERA) are the only modern team to top what Los Angeles has accomplished thus far.
You may not be surprised to learn that the Orioles went 7–2 in the playoffs and won the World Series.
Understanding the scope of this problem requires a closer look at each Los Angeles starter who will throw for the Blue Jays:
Playoff stats: Three starts with 12 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 0 HR/9, 0.86 ERA and 1.09 FIP in 21 innings.
What made him so difficult to hit in October? Snell saw a slight increase in velocity at the height of his stellar October, but the biggest adjustment he made was a pitch mix change that saw his fastball velocity drop in favor of more changes.
This is a noticeable change considering the changeup is considered Snell's best pitching of the regular season. His Statcast value (+8) was much higher than the rest of the lefty's repertoire combined (+1).
The slant on the pitch led to a lot of missed strikes, but it also helped Snell make safe contact. His launch angle was minus-7 in the regular season and even worse at minus-11 in the playoffs, helping Snell achieve a 69.2% ground ball success rate in October.
Snell's strikeout rate in the playoffs is impressive, but his contact management is even better. None of the 39 balls hit against him were barreled, and his average exit velocity (81.9 mph) is the best of the postseason among pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched. In second place—perhaps surprisingly for Blue Jays fans who watched Game 7 of the ALCS—is Eduard Bazardo with a significantly higher velocity of 84.3 mph.
His hits per nine runs this postseason (2.57) are the lowest ever by a starter in the playoffs, and his WHIP (0.52) is second only to Mike Scott in 1986 (0.50). He faced 72 hitters in October and 55 of them either struck out or grounded the ball.
Are there any possible vulnerabilities? Snell has looked nearly invincible in recent weeks, and his dominance continued into September. Over his final three regular-season starts, he allowed just one run in 19 innings.
With that in mind, it's hard to pinpoint a clear weakness, but Snell is a pitcher who often works outside the strike zone and has been known to have trouble getting walks.
Cashing out hitters who reach the free pass won't be easy, but remaining patient could create opportunities – or at least increase Snell's pitches enough to force him to retire early.
While pure hitting isn't the two-time Cy Young winner's strong suit, he does prioritize getting ahead in the count and having hitters spread the zone, much like Kevin Gausman. The average first-pitch strike rate in MLB typically hovers around 60 percent, and Snell has topped 64 in three of the last four seasons, meaning that in certain spots, Blue Jays hitters can have success hunting down first pitches in the zone.
Patience and first-pitch aggression may be at odds, but there may be a time and place to prioritize each in your quest to hit the hot lefty.
Which Blue Jays hitters have the best chance of success?: Davis Schneider's elite discipline could come in handy against Snell, and the Blue Jays' two best hitters (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer) are capable of either attacking first pitches or working on the run.
Playoff stats: Three starts with 8.24 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9, 1.83 ERA and 3.39 FIP in 21 innings.
What made him so difficult to hit in October? Yamamoto constantly deceived his hitters during the playoffs, which can be seen in the poor decisions they made against him.
Whenever you make your opponent passive in the zone and aggressive outside the zone, you are in good shape.
One of the reasons it's so difficult to make decisions against Yamamoto right now is because he's done a masterful job of dealing with the gray areas just outside the striking zone. Here's a heat map of his outside zone passes in the playoffs:
Almost everything is competitive as Yamamoto works the bottom zone and corner, and he combines that top-notch command with some nasty stuff.
In the playoffs, Yamamoto's fastball averages 96.1 mph, and his secondary arsenal has two strikeout pitches, including a splitter that topped 90 pitches in the regular season and a curveball with a 6.8-inch more drop than his peers – MLB's Biggest Blowout among newcomers working full-time.
This pitch has been particularly challenging for hitters lately. They are batting .081 against him since the start of September with 15 strikeouts. Yamamoto increased its use accordingly. His shooting percentage in the playoffs (24.7%) is higher than in any other three-game stretch of the regular season.
The combination of increased speed, superior command, a proven whiff-generating splitter, and a nasty curveball is giving Yamamoto a headache right now—and he has three more pitches that we didn't even mention in this review (cutter, sinker, and slider), all of which are credible.
Are there any possible vulnerabilities? Of all the Dodgers' starters, Yamamoto looked the most productive in October, even with a masterful one-run game in Game 2 of the NLCS.
He's the only one in the group who had an objectively bad game, allowing three earned runs in just four innings for the Philadelphia Phillies and leaving too many pitches in the middle of the plate.
However, he is also the only starter to pitch a full regular season, and during this campaign he posted a 2.49 ERA and 5 fWAR in 173 innings. Everything he does has a great proof of concept.
Yamamoto doesn't split platoons, his command and control is solid, all of his pitches had at least a +2 Statcast during the regular season, and he can finish hitters in a variety of ways.
The best way to get to a right-hander is to wait for his fastball. This is his most frequently used pitch, and while his speed has been good in the playoffs, he doesn't have many other special attributes. Yamamoto's heater has about average movement and limited rotation, and his 52nd percentile extension doesn't give him much of an impact. Stuff+ rates the pitch a 91 well below his career average, although his recent improvement in speed and good placement are undoubtedly helping his effectiveness at the moment.
His fastball rate against lefties (38.5%) is higher than righties (33%) and he may have a better chance of doing damage, but facing Yamamoto is not an enviable task for either.
Which Blue Jays hitters have the best chance of success?: None of Toronto's left-handed hitters are true fastball hunters, but between the regular season and the playoffs, the group was at least respectable against a combination of splitters and curves that could help them handle Yamamoto's pitching.
Playoff stats: Two starts with 14.25 K/9, 3 BB/9, 0 HR/9, 2.25 ERA and 1.22 FIP in 12 innings.
What made him so difficult to hit in October? After slowly building over the summer, the sensation of two-way communication had finally reached its full strength. Both of his playoff starts lasted six innings—a length he reached only once during the regular season—and his velocity is on an upward trajectory.
This graph understates growth because his July velocity readings are based on three short games spanning four full innings. The speed at which he now operates as a traditional starter is truly elite. Only two starters topped Ohtani's current speed of 98.9 mph during the regular season: Hunter Greene (99.5 mph) and Jacob Misiorowski (99.3 mph).
Along with that top-notch run, Ohtani has six minor pitches, four of which produced whiff rates of at least 40 percent between the regular season and playoffs. His deadliest weapon in the postseason has been his splitter, which has already earned him seven strikeouts. In October, opponents struck him 10 times and went on air nine times.
The dominance of this offering was evident recently as it was the field he used the least during the regular season (5.6%).
Ohtani layered increased speed and a resurgent splitter (a pitch he used quite often early in his career) on top of a repertoire that was already quite effective in the regular season.
Are there any possible vulnerabilities? Ohtani's combination of brute strength and varied arsenal leaves him with no obvious weaknesses.
In a small sample during the regular season, right-handed hitters did significantly more damage (.398 SLG) than left-handers (.205 SLG), but it's hard to argue that right-handers will have an easy time against him.
One aspect of Ohtani's style that is perhaps both good and bad news for Blue Jays hitters is that he is constantly in the zone.
Walks are difficult to find, but pitches in vulnerable areas are possible, including misses inside the zone. According to Pitching+Ohtani's Career Location+ is 93 below average. His 99 in the regular season was a little better, but he's not a pitcher who lives in the corners.
His career meatball percentage (9.1 percent) is above the MLB average (7.3 percent). Opportunities to do some damage should arise. Using them against your elite players is still a challenge.
Which Blue Jays hitters have the best chance of success? Aggressive right-handed hitters may be in the best position to succeed, reminiscent of Ernie Clement.
Bo Bichette is another name to keep in mind if he's in the lineup. Not only does he fit the description of a right-hander hitting zone pitches, but his 1.321 OPS against fastballs over 97 mph this season was ranks first among Blue Jays hitters.
Playoff stats: Two starts (and one relief appearance) with a 12.15 K/9, 5.40 BB/9, 0 HR/9, 0.68ERA and 2.44 FIP in 13.1 innings.
What made him so difficult to hit in October? Damaging Glasnow has never been easy thanks to his impressive fastball (made even more fearsome by his 100th percentile extension) and multiple breaking balls at varying velocities.
He's using his sinker more than he has in years after putting it on the shelf between 2018 and 2023, making him a little more unpredictable, and his four-seam velo (96.6 mph) is up at full power since September, generating a ridiculous amount of whiff.
Glasnow's slider and curveball are both dangerous offerings with strong vertical movement, but hitting the big right-hander actually requires battling the heat.
Are there any possible vulnerabilities? A summary of Glasnow's pitch on Baseball Savant sums up the story:
Glasnow's percentile rankings are well above average in almost every category, with the exception of throwing outside the zone, in which hitters are underperforming, resulting in a lot of walks.
The Blue Jays will likely have some opportunities with men on base against the big right-hander, but converting those chances into runs won't be easy.
Which Blue Jays hitters have the best chance of success? The Blue Jays batters best equipped to face Glasgow are the ones who like to hit the hard spots and can be patient.
The hitters who best fit this description are Guerrero and Springer, both of whom have had notable success against righties in the past.
