Why Democrats and Republicans are watching Tennessee’s special election for Congress : NPR

Congress early elections The Tennessee election is the latest battleground for Democrats and Republicans seeking to craft a winning message ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Historically, Tennessee's 7th Congressional District is a fairly conservative district that has given President Trump approximately 60% voting last November. Former Rep. Mark Greene, who resigned in July, won by the same margin.

But in more recent history, Democrats have surpassed their 2024 numbers in this year's special elections by on average 13% and have won a string of resounding victories in races up and down the ballot in the past month.

That dynamic means the race between Republican former state Department of General Services Commissioner Matt Van Epps and Democratic Rep. Aftin Behn has captured national attention in the final weeks of the campaign.

In the final stretch, the race is flooded with outside money.

According to the latest Federal Election Commission DataOutside groups spent more than $6.5 million on the race, including more than $1.6 million from the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. super PAC. Two-thirds of the Super PAC's total spending came in the final two weeks of the race as early voting intensified.

Sparse public polling in special elections, typically with lower turnout, combined with a less reliable picture of who will make up the electorate, has also increased pressure on both parties to squeeze out every vote in what could be a tight race.

Emerson College Poll released last week found Van Epps to have a slight lead over Ben, but within the margin of error among voters surveyed. Polls released in October by Democratic-leaning firms showed Van Epps with an 8-point lead, roughly in line with the Democratic average in this year's special elections.

Campaigns focus on cost of living

In the final sprint of the race, scores of surrogates stopped the campaign trail and came out virtually to support the candidates. Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin attended campaign events for Ben last month, and former Vice President Al Gore and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez led a Zoom rally Monday night.

House Speaker Mike Johnson held a rally in support of Van Epps on Monday morning, where Trump called on speakerphone and declared that “the whole world is watching Tennessee right now.”

Both sides are making service affordability a major issue in the race, especially on airlines. Van Epps echoed Trump's support but focused on the economy in his closing message.

In one Van Epps advertisement denounced “career politicians” and promised to “lower prices, create good-paying jobs and lower health care costs for working families.”

Ben's final ad promised that she would “shake up Washington” by “making health care more affordable, lowering the cost of living and protecting workers and small businesses from job-killing tariffs.”

During a Monday evening rally call for Van Epps, Trump dismissed the issue of affordability as a factor cited by Democrats to distract attention from what he said are his administration's many accomplishments.

“They love to talk about affordability,” Trump said at a Monday night televised rally in support of Van Epps. “To them it’s just a scam, it’s just a word.”