NEW YORK – Deals touted as some of the best of the holiday season are expected to keep people across the United States glued to their computers and smartphones as the post-Thanksgiving shopping marathon ends on Cyber Monday.
It's no secret that buying things online has now become an integral part of the daily lives of many people. And year after year, these purchases grow during the pre-holiday gift rush. Experts expect consumers to increase record spending on Cyber Monday this year despite broader economic uncertainty.
Adobe Analytics estimates U.S. shoppers will spend $14.2 billion online on Monday, or 6.3% more than in 2024. Spending is expected to peak between 8:00 pm and 10:00 pm local time, when Adobe expects $16 million to flow through online shopping carts every minute nationwide.
US consumers have already spent $11.8 billion online on Black Friday, $6.4 billion on Thanksgiving and another $11.8 billion over the weekend, exceeding Adobe's forecasts. Purchases made during Cyber Week—the five main shopping days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday—provide a clear indicator of how much shoppers are willing to spend for the holidays.
“Cyber Week is off to a good start,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights. “Discounts will remain elevated through Cyber Monday, which we expect to remain the biggest online shopping day of the season and year.”
According to Adobe's latest estimates, deals on electronics and clothing will peak on Monday with discounts of 30% and 26% from average prices. But other categories will still be heavily discounted, including toys, which Adobe expects to see a 27% price cut.
Meanwhile, software company Salesforce, which tracks digital spending at a range of retailers including grocers, estimates Cyber Monday online sales will be $13.4 billion in the U.S. and $53.7 billion globally.
While the amount of money flowing into online shopping carts is expected to reach new heights on Monday, rising retail prices could also contribute to any record sales figures. Consumers may buy fewer goods. Experts say tight budgets have many shopping with greater precision than in past years – for example, focusing on a few “big” purchases and spreading what they buy over several days of promotions in hopes of getting the most bang for their buck.
Businesses and households are anxiously watching the financial impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs on foreign imports. Workers in both the public and private sectors are also grappling with concerns over job security amid corporate layoffs and the fallout from the 43-day government shutdown.
During the November-December holiday season overall, U.S. shoppers will spend more than $1 trillion for the first time this year, the National Retail Federation estimates. But the pace of growth is slowing, with growth expected to be between 3.7% and 4.2% year over year, down from 4.3% during last year's holiday season.
At the same time, credit card debt and delinquencies on other short-term loans are rising. More and more shoppers are turning to “buy now, pay later” plans that allow them to defer payments on holiday decor, gifts and other items.
Buy now, pay later credits will drive $20.2 billion in online spending this holiday season, up 11% from last year, according to Adobe. The firm predicts that buy now, pay later loans will cross a new $1 billion mark on Cyber Monday, with the vast majority of them coming from purchases made on mobile devices.
Overall, mobile devices have become the dominant shopping platform that consumers turn to while on vacation. Adobe expects smartphones, wearables and other portable electronics to account for 58% of online spending this season.
Five years ago, most online purchases were made using desktop computers.
AI-powered shopping services are also expected to play a role in what consumers choose to buy. Salesforce estimates that on Black Friday, AI assistants and digital agents contributed $14.2 billion of the total $79 billion spent online worldwide.
Hot sellers this holiday season will include gaming consoles like the Nintendo Switch 2 and fashion toys like Labubu Dolls, Adobe says. The analyst firm expects the latest versions of popular consumer electronics, including the iPhone 17, Google Pixel 10 and Samsung Galaxy S25, to also be in high demand.
For many, Cyber Monday is considered the “last call” to take advantage of the biggest discounts in the days after Thanksgiving. But over the years its reach has increased.
Cyber Monday is two decades old, dating back to when the National Retail Federation first coined the term in 2005. Today, sales continue to rise throughout the week, thanks to the hype the industry has created to spur consumer spending.
