On the one hand, it's hard to knock a team that clearly needs big help to anchor a guy who leads all pitchers in innings since 2021 (378.1 IP) with an excellent ERA (2.71) and the ability to get out of trouble with an elite ball rate (56.3%). Rodgers is also coming off a stellar season (1.98 ERA, 2.65 ERA, 1.3 fWAR) and was highly rated around the league at the trade deadline. giving a strong three-player package from the New York Mets.
At the same time, it's hard to ignore the fact that Rodgers is about to enter his age-35 season and just ranked in the top percentile in average fastball velocity (83.5 mph) and whiff rate (15.9 percent). Losing in these areas theoretically doesn't matter as long as you get strikeouts, but speed and misses with the bat are often what pitchers are paid for. Public projections for Rodgers' contract came in well below the contract the Blue Jays gave him.
These projections are low in the context of what Rodgers has accomplished, but they take into account the right-hander's status as a soft-throwing submariner as opposed to a traditional late-game fireball weapon. This seems reasonable given that pitchers like Rodgers have less proof of concept than high-performing bullpen arms with more traditional skill sets.
Based on the Blue Jays' investment in Rodgers, it appears they view his unorthodox play as an added value rather than a cause for concern. While many pitchers are said to give opponents a “different look,” Rodgers stands out among all the greats when it comes to arm angle.
It's easy to spot in the bottom right corner of the diagram below:
Trey Yesavage earned a lot of attention last season with his 64-degree arm angle, but there are five other pitchers with an angle of at least 60. Meanwhile, no MLB pitcher was within 35 degrees of Rodgers.
Being different from his peers certainly helps the new Blue Jays hitter succeed, but it also makes him difficult to predict. Does his distinct style mean he'll age better because he's not as dependent on speed, or does his unusual behavior put his arm at risk? Will the league understand him more the longer his career goes on, or will his distance from his peers mean he'll always be an effective change of pace?
While a trip back in time would provide an opportunity to delve into the careers of players with such notable names as Three Fingers Brown, Dizzy Trout, Chief Hogsett and Hod Leazenby, it's unlikely that seeing those players age in such a different era would say anything about Rodgers' trajectory.
Our remaining 24 submariners are divided into four large categories:
Burned out long before reaching 35 years old.
Bob Long, Steve Olin, Brad, Lesson Kim, Mike Venafro, Wunsch Rescomed, Eddie Oropesa, Prince, Ben Rowan, Eric Yardley
These pitchers have had varying degrees of success, but they haven't advanced anywhere near what Rodgers has already done, giving them minimal utility compared to comparable players.
I'm not over 35, but it might be instructive
Mark Eichorn, Chad Bradford, Adam Cimber
Rodgers was already effective at age 34, something none of the three have achieved, but each serves as a reminder of why some teams may be wary of Submariners. All three of them were extremely successful for a time before falling off sharply in their 30s.
Eichhorn was one of the best pitchers in Blue Jays history and was ranked fifth among all bullpen weapons in fWAR from 1986 to 1994 (14.5). After losing a season at age 34 due to injury, he returned at age 35 without much success (5.06 ERA) and made several comeback attempts but was unable to return to the MLB.
Among 60 relievers who pitched more than 400 innings between 2000 and 2008, Bradford had a 3.11 ERA. took 10th place. He dealt with multiple injuries in his age-34 season, spending more time in the minors than in the majors and then not recording a professional inning since 2010.
Blue Jays fans saw Cimber give the team great opportunities in 2021 and 2022 before the wheels fell off in 2023. Between the ages of 27 and 31, he pitched 278.2 innings of 3.20 ERA ball before that number rose to 7.20 in the final 45 frames of his career, split between 2023 and 2024.
This small cohort consists of living examples of the sudden decline that some teams may have feared in Rodgers' case. When a player achieves success in unusual ways, it's easy to make that success seem fragile. Clearly, that's not how the Blue Jays feel about Rodgers, and one of the categories below goes some way to supporting that idea.
The history of more than 35 years has not yet been written
Hobie Milner, Ryan Thompson, Justin Lawrence, Chase Lee, Tim Hill
Hill pitched in 2025 at age 35, but we don't yet know how this group of current pitchers will fare in their 30s.
The best analogues of Rogers
Kent Tekulve, Dan Quisenberry, Terry Leach, Steve Reed, Mike Myers, Brad Ziegler
It's a relatively small group, but these guys were successful submariners well into their 30s. It's notable that only a quarter of the group made it this far, but relievers overall are inconsistent and some of the current players could flesh out this group in the coming years, so the fact that this group only makes up a quarter of the total isn't as bleak as it first appears.
Tekulve, Quisenberry, Leach, Reed, Myers and Ziegler together formed an effective group until they were about 30 years old and aged gracefully.
Of the six, only one had a trajectory that the Blue Jays could be wary of with Rodgers, as Quisenberry had a 2.52 ERA through age 34 (with five top-five Cy Young finishes) and a 4.19 mark over the last three seasons.
The last similar indicator is one of the most encouraging. Ziegler accumulated 72 saves with a 3.09 ERA after his 35th birthday, often serving as the Arizona Diamondbacks' starting closer.
Making any blanket statements about this type of pitcher based on six players would be irresponsible, but the bet the Blue Jays are making that Rodgers will perform well as he ages is based on some precedent. His confidence in a deception move that will stick around for years to come, as well as the fact that he has already achieved enormous success at minimal speed, provides the logical basis for his contract, but the Submariners' history was likely also considered.
Rodgers has another ace up his sleeve that undoubtedly contributed to the Blue Jays taking the plunge with him: Unlike most of his submariner compatriots, he is equally effective whether he has a platoon advantage or not.
In most cases, pitchers in his class excel against one-armed hitters and struggle when they don't have a platoon advantage, which helps explain why they are used as relievers. Rogers doesn't have that problem. The chart below shows submariners who have debuted since 2002, when FanGraphs began displaying reliable platoon data, and how they fared with and without a platoon advantage:
Lee, a recent starter for the Blue Jays, has incredible numbers that are probably best explained by his limited MLB experience (37.1 IP), but beyond that, Rodgers stands neck and neck with Thompson.
As time goes on he becomes more and more brutal against lefties and they don't seem to have an answer for it.
This characteristic makes Rodgers situationally versatile and well-prepared for a demanding job, while many of his peers played something of a specialist. It's not as unique as his arm angle, but it makes him special even within the small group of pitchers he belongs to.
Any big investment in a pitcher is risky, and going all-in on Rodgers wasn't an obvious masterstroke on the Blue Jays' part. He doesn't confuse hitters like most of the power players in his new tax bracket, and his age is important.
For any legitimate concerns, it's easy to see what Toronto sees in him. His production is consistently outstanding, his arm angle is difficult to control, he doesn't have the one weakness most typical of his type of pitcher, and there is some evidence that this type is aging well. Whether this will be a $37 million package or not is up for debate, but it is compelling.
