MLB held its fourth annual draft lottery at the winter meetings in Orlando on Tuesday. Chicago White Sox received first overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft.
It's still very early in the draft process, but this is the perfect time to do a quick mini-draft with five picks to see how things might play out in July. Four out of five players last winter's issue They were ranked among the top 11 players on draft day in this exercise, so it's fair to think we have a reasonable idea of ​​how the top players will perform, even though a lot could change over the next seven months.
Here are my early predictions for the first five picks in the 2026 MLB Draft, made after consulting with industry sources and my own scouts.
1. Chicago White Sox: Roch Cholowski, SS, UCLA
Cholowski was a big name in the 2023 draft. 32nd place in the ranking on my latest board as an outstanding defender with solid tools, but questions over his overall offensive potential and great asking price. His bonus amount was not reached and he was reliable as a freshman at UCLA and took a huge leap forward as a sophomore, hitting 23 home runs last season.
He is still an outstanding defender, but now his (above average) hitting and (plus) power tools have improved, allowing evaluators to go back over the last decade and find the best characteristics of previous drafts, such as Dansby Swanson or Troy Tulowitzki. Cholowski has a pretty solid lead at the top of the list at this point, but it's not insurmountable due to the solid group of mid-to-upside talent in this class.
The lottery couldn't have gone better for the White Sox after a 102-loss season to land their best pick of the year when there is a clear preseason favorite for the pick. Chase MeiiToth And Colson Montgomery are solid options for shortstops in the major leagues with Caleb Bohnemer and Billy Carlson as top-100 types in the minor minor leagues, but Cholowski will give the White Sox a big problem: too many good players at the most important position on the field.
2. Tampa Bay Rays: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian (TX) HS, Texas commits
Emerson was touted for years as the top prospect in the 2026 class and held that title throughout the summer exhibition season and fall workouts. He is a 6-foot-2 left-handed hitting shortstop whose ability is above average or plus in almost everything on the field. He may not be a plus at anything right now, but he's still only 17 years old, so that could develop.
Given his years of experience as an elite player and among the most coveted group of players in the draft, he is a recognized talent in this area of ​​drafting, even for teams that don't typically take high school players first. The Rays are not a team that makes prep stops in the top two rounds of each of the last three drafts; Tampa Bay also likes left-handed hitters. Emerson is the rare prospect who is a safer pick than the vast majority of college players but also has more upside.
3. Minnesota Twins: Justin LeBron, SS, Alabama
LeBron was selected in a loaded 2023 prep class along with prep teammate Antonio Jimenez, who was a third-round pick of the Mets out of UCF in 2025. LeBron's hitting and athleticism skyrocketed when he got to Tuscaloosa, and the 6-foot-2 shortstop is now an excellent runner, thrower and defender with above-average raw power. His pitch selection is fine, the only question being his ability to hit the ball due to a below-average swing rate last season, helped somewhat by a heavy, energetic approach. If LeBron can find the sweet spot between his reach, contact and power, he could challenge Cholowski as the top pick.
The Twins aren't afraid to make small mistakes if they provide big upside in recent drafts, as has been the case with Billy Amick, Brandon Winokur and Quentin Young the last three years, but also like to take college shortstops like Kalen Culpepper, Marek Houston and Kyle DeBarge. LeBron feels confident given his tools and positional profile, but also untapped upside due to his contact/power balance being a little off at the moment.
4. San Francisco Giants: Drew Burress, CF, Georgia Tech
Burress was my 2023 draft pick. 40th place in the ranking overall on my board (among the highest rankings among media and teams) but ultimately proved unsuitable for teams that also had him in that range. He's only 5ft 8in so he wasn't expected to have much power at the time, but he had more power than you'd think given his size, as well as a long track record of batting at the average level, as well as speed and defense in the middle of the field.
Burress exploded at Georgia Tech, especially when it came to power – he hit 25 homers as a freshman, then 19 as a sophomore – fueled by what is now above-average raw power. He grades above average or plus in all five tools, but his approach/swing is more power-oriented than in high school, so balancing his abilities at the plate in pro ball could be the key to reaching his ceiling. The Giants have drafted top three college position players each of the last two years and will likely be looking at the best available player from that same demographic in 2026.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: AJ Gracia, VA.
Gracia had almost no national scouting profile, starting out of high school in New Jersey as a two-way player in 2023 before heading to Duke. He immediately showed scouts that he should be considered a true professional prospect coming out of high school, hitting .305 with 14 homers as a freshman and then increasing his walks, fewer strikeouts and 15 homers as a sophomore. Gracia transferred to Virginia after the season, following much of the Duke coaching staff.
He's currently a 6'3″ junior center/right fielder who is above average in just about everything in the batter's box, especially his ability to lift/pull the ball in games, although his swing can sometimes go too far uphill.
The Pirates appear to have turned the corner with Connor Griffin and Bubba Chandler accession Paul Skens & Co., although they are also looking to invest money in free agency, so I can see them leaning towards a group of college position players, which is a strength in this class.
