BELEM, Brazil. After agreement Following UN climate talks in the Amazon that fell short of many countries' expectations, experts have found some positives along with good reasons for concern in the fight against global warming.
The Associated Press asked 17 experts – diplomats, analysts, human rights activists and academics – a simple question: What happens next after the negotiations known as COP30 in the city of Belem?
“We leave here with a clear signal, a very, very clear signal, that we have entered an era of implementation,” said UN climate executive secretary Simon Still. “As we move forward, it's about action. It's about rolling up your sleeves.”
Others view key failure I don't deliver the road map phase out coal, oil and gas – the main causes of warming. The Road Map received public support from the President of Brazil and more than 80 countries, but had strong opponents.
“This was supposed to be the moment. A cop in the Amazon, a president calling for a roadmap to transition to fossil fuels, science screaming for action. But the world blinked again,” said Panamanian climate negotiator Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez. “The next year will be more difficult for communities and ecosystems. The impacts will worsen because emissions are not slowing down.”
Still pointed to seven different points in the Belen agreements that could encourage action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and less fossil fuels. The COP Presidency has set out a 117-item “agenda for action”, mainly for businesses to turn their promises into real actions.
This agenda includes a pledge of $1 trillion to improve energy networks and infrastructure; increasing biofuel production; plans for industrial decarbonization in developing countries; US$5.5 billion for a fund that pays countries to preserve their forests; and other promises of funding, including from the private sector, for projects in areas such as agriculture and adaptation. Among the most ambitious efforts is an effort to raise $1 trillion for renewable electricity grids and energy storage.
One specific action Still and several others highlighted was a new “global implementation accelerator,” a voluntary and collaborative system designed to help countries that want to do more than they previously proposed in their climate change plans. The emphasis is on getting money where it is needed.
“If the Ambition Accelerator can help with this, it will have a huge impact on the outlook for global warming,” said Bill Hare, CEO of climate science and policy institute Climate Analytics.
As the Belém talks failed to reach consensus, the COP30 presidents pledged to develop two new road maps: one for the transition away from fossil fuels and the other for ending deforestation. But these roadmaps will not have the force agreed upon at UN negotiations.
COP30 President André Correa do Lago said his office would carefully study both areas and use science and economics to develop these plans. He said they would be tailored to the needs of different countries.
Do Lago also promised that his office, together with Colombia and the Netherlands, will organize a special conference on phasing out fossil fuels, scheduled for April next year.
“If they have real timelines, accountability and funding, they have the potential to shape global action and keep governments in check,” said Mariana Paoli of the anti-poverty group Christian Aid. “They don’t have power on their own, but they can create the structure around which real change can be built.”
COPs need consensus, experts say, and that often means the weakest deals because they have to please everyone.
“In future negotiations, it will be extremely important to control the oil states,” said New Climate Institute founder Niklas Hone. “They realized that this process could be dangerous for them and worked harder than ever to block any progress.”
“The outcome of COP30 reminds us once again that action dependent on global consensus will never be enough to solve the climate crisis at scale,” said Catherine Hayhoe, chief scientist at The Nature Conservancy.
However, Paoli said these conferences are not powerless. She said they are “slow and imperfect, but they still move the world forward – sometimes in unexpected ways.”
“Next year we are likely to see a continued escalation in climate impacts alongside incremental progress in tackling climate change,” said Mohamed Adow, director of PowerShift Africa. “The expansion of renewable energy will continue, as will new investment in fossil fuels in many parts of the world.”
Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research, said all forms of extreme weather and climate events will increase, hitting the most vulnerable people the hardest and threatening the survival of coral reefs and the very Amazon where the talks took place.
“These are unacceptable results of the problem being solved,” Rockström said.
With the US Federal Government exit from the fight against climate change Under President Donald Trump, states, cities and businesses are cutting emissions in ways that will allow the U.S. to meet its climate goal, said former U.S. climate envoy Trigg Talley, now a spokesman for All In America.
“COPs are just one part of a broader climate action agenda,” said David Waskow, international climate director at the World Resources Institute. “We need to use every lever at our disposal to limit global warming.”
“The giant boulder of climate action is already rolling down in the right direction,” Hayhoe said. “There are already millions of hands working on it. And as each of us adds a hand, it goes a little faster.”
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