What we know about leaked US draft plan to end Russia’s Ukraine war

The draft US-Russian peace plan has been widely leaked online, and we now know that it proposes transferring those areas of the industrial eastern Donbass region that are still under Ukrainian control to Ukrainian control. actually control over Russia by Vladimir Putin.

The latest versions of the text also call for Ukraine to reduce the size of its armed forces to 600 thousand people.

But what else is known about this text and who will benefit most from it?

There are 28 key points, and some of them, at first glance, may be acceptable for Ukraine. Others seem vague and imprecise.

Ukraine's sovereignty would be “confirmed” and it would be “a complete and comprehensive non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine and Europe”with durable or reliable “security guarantees” for Kyiv and the demand for early elections in 100 days.

If Russia invaded Ukraine “a tough, coordinated military response” is proposed along with the restoration of sanctions and termination of the deal.

Although elections in Ukraine are impossible due to martial law, they could theoretically be held if a peace agreement is signed.

But when it comes to security guarantees, there are no details about who will provide them or how reliable they might be. This falls far short of NATO's Article 5-style commitment to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on everyone. If signed, Kyiv would like something more than a vague promise.

Among the most controversial proposals are Ukraine handing over its own unoccupied territory and reducing the size of its armed forces.

“Ukrainian troops will withdraw the part of the Donetsk region that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian troops will not enter this demilitarized zone.”

The cession of territories where at least a quarter of a million Ukrainians live – the Donetsk “belt of fortresses” of the cities of Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkovka – will be unacceptable to the majority of Ukrainians. Russia spent more than a year trying to capture the city of Pokrovsk – Ukraine is unlikely to give up such important strategic nodes without a fight.

“The size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be limited to 600 thousand personnel.”

Last January, the Ukrainian army was estimated to have 880,000 active-duty troops, up from 250,000 at the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

While 600,000 may seem like a potentially acceptable number in peacetime, such a limit would infringe on Ukraine's sovereignty. It may also be too big a figure for Russia to accept.

“Our red lines are clear and unshakable,” said Ukraine’s representative Kristina Gaevishyn to the UN Security Council. “There will never be any formal or other recognition of Ukrainian territory temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation as Russian. Ukraine will not accept any restrictions on its right to self-defense or on the size or capabilities of our armed forces.”

The project also proposes that “Crimea, Lugansk and Donetsk will be recognized de facto as Russian, including by the United States.”.

In other words, Ukraine and other countries would not have to legally recognize Russian control. This could allow Kyiv to accept such wording, since it would not contradict the Ukrainian constitution, which states that its borders are “indivisible and inviolable.”

In other regions, in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporozhye, the front lines will be frozen and Russia will give up the territories it has occupied in other parts of Ukraine.

The project offers important commitments regarding the strategic future of Ukraine:

“Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its charter a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted to NATO in the future.”

“Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term privileged access to the European market while this issue is being considered.”

There is little chance of Ukraine joining NATO any time soon, and Russia has softened its position on Ukraine's candidacy for EU membership in recent months. Apparently, the document offers Kyiv access to EU markets, while ignoring the point of view of 27 European countries.

Joining both the EU and NATO is part of Ukraine's constitution, and Kristina Gaevishyn's other red line at the UN on Thursday was: “We will also not tolerate any attacks on our sovereignty, including our sovereign right to choose the alliances we want to join.”

Other draft proposals are that NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine and that European fighter jets would be stationed in Poland. Kyiv will also have to commit to becoming “nuclear-free state”.

This appears to throw off plans for a Western coalition of the willing, led by Britain and France, to help oversee any future deal.

Several points speak of Russia's return from isolation with the help of “Russia will have to be reintegrated into the world economy” and invited back to the G8 group of powers.

That seems a long way off at the moment, as Putin is under an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. Russia was expelled from the G7 after it seized and then annexed Crimea in 2014, and six years later Trump tried to bring Putin back into the fold.

While Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan resisted a full-scale invasion, it is now even less likely to happen.

The bill proposes investing $100 billion in frozen Russian assets. “in US efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine”with the US receiving 50% of the profits, and Europe adding $100 billion in reconstruction investment.

This is reminiscent of the US mining deal with Ukraine earlier this year, which paid America a fee for its participation and also leaves the European Union with nothing but huge bills.

The amounts mentioned there may also be insufficient: earlier this year, the total cost of reconstruction in Ukraine was estimated at $524 billion (€506 billion).

Some 200 billion euros of frozen assets in Russia are mostly held by Euroclear in Belgium, and the European Union is currently working on a plan to use this money to finance Kyiv financially and militarily.

The remaining frozen assets will go to “American-Russian Investment Mechanism”according to the project, so Russia would get some of its money back, but again, this would benefit the US financially.

Some commentators noted that the plan does not require restrictions on the Ukrainian military or its military industry, although it does include a provision stating that if Ukraine fires a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg, the security guarantee will be void.

But this does not impose restrictions on the long-range weapons that Ukraine is developing, such as the Flamingo and Long Neptune missiles.

We know the US is keen to move quickly on an “aggressive timetable” with this project, and Ukraine reportedly has until Thanksgiving at the end of next week to agree to it.

Equally, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who helped draft it, called it “a list of potential ideas to end this war”, and German Foreign Minister Johann Wadeful made it clear that he did not view the 28 points as a final plan, having spoken with the other key US official involved, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff.

In some respects, the draft document appears to be a work in progress, and some of the details that were published on US websites on Thursday are no longer clear.

The European Union said Friday morning it had not yet officially seen the plan, and Russia's Foreign Ministry said the same.

It is known that Russian special representative Kirill Dmitriev spent three whole days with Vitkov discussing this plan, putting forward proposals for concluding a deal that suits Moscow. Russia's reaction has been cautious so far, but Putin said it may become the “basis” of a peaceful settlement.

Handing over Ukrainian territory to Russia, even in the demilitarized zone, is the biggest sign of tilt toward Russia, but freezing the front line in the south could prove difficult for the Kremlin, which annexed Kherson and Zaporozhye in its constitution.

One of the proposals is to lift sanctions. “to be agreed upon step by step and on a case by case basis” – which Moscow will likely consider too slow.

However, the plan for “full amnesty” for all parties will be received well in Moscow and very poorly in Kyiv and European capitals.

Commentators have noted that while Putin does appear to have significant concessions to make, some of the demands on NATO may be too vague for the Kremlin's taste.

Russia has also consistently demanded that the peace plan address what it considers the “root causes” of the war. One of these root causes is the halt in NATO expansion in Eastern Europe, which is what the project appears to be about.

Some of the other 28 points of the draft also refer to Russia's claims of discrimination against the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine, without explicitly supporting them.

One point is clear but impartial: “Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education.”

Another apparent attempt at impartiality concerns the proposal to distribute electricity generated by the Russian-occupied Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, Europe's largest. “equally between Russia and Ukraine”.