It's Election Day again, and over the next 24 hours, cable, broadcast and streaming channels will be analyzing to the nth extent what the numbers in several races mean, not only for the jurisdictions they cover, but also for next year's midterm elections and even the 2028 presidential race.
As Donald Trump's approval ratings fall, Democrats are looking for signs of voter rejection while Republicans are betting that the electorate will continue to reject the party that has lost power.
Several off-year races are local in nature, but their coverage will reflect the national implications of the results of the first significant wave of electoral contests since Trump returned to power.
Trump attended a televised rally Monday night to support GOP candidates in New Jersey and Virginia, but was absent from the actual campaign. His participation may boost GOP turnout, but it will also energize Democrats, especially in elections where the challenge is to generate enthusiasm. “Trump would do as much or more to boost turnout on the other side,” NewsNation's Chris Stirewalt said in a recent interview with an expiration date.
Over the weekend, Barack Obama led rallies in support of New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial candidate Miki Sherrill and Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger. The former president has attracted attention mainly for his attacks on his successor.
Meanwhile, in the race for mayor of New York Zogran Mamdani is already a political celebrity, bolstered by his ubiquitous media presence and a slew of negative reporting on Fox News and other right-wing media outlets. On Monday, Trump spoke out in support of Mamdani's rival. Andrew CuomoDemocrat-turned-Independent.
“I would rather see a Democrat who has a record of success and WIN than a Communist with no experience and a record of COMPLETE AND TOTAL FAILURE,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
In California Gavin NewsomeRussia's presidential ambitions could get a boost if its redistricting initiative. Proposition 50passes. This move will temporarily dismantle the work of the state's good government redistricting commission, instead creating new gerrymandered districts drawn to favor Democrats. It's a response to Trump's efforts to force states like Texas to redraw congressional maps to help the GOP in next year's midterm elections.
In campaign ads and appearances, Newsom has portrayed the Yes 50 vote as a way to send a message to Trump. At his final rally Monday, Newsom referenced Trump's ICE raids on communities and National Guard troops on the streets. “To those who have been bullied, to those who have been humiliated, to those who feel powerless, to those who care not only about themselves but about each other, about our community, our city, our state, our nation and, for that matter, what we represent to the rest of the world, that is what Proposition 50 represents,” he said.
Here are the key races to watch on Tuesday.
Mayor of New York: Mamdani's attempt to lead America's largest city has generated more interest in the race than any other mayoral cycle in the recent past. The 34-year-old democratic socialist's victory in the primary was a stunning victory, shaking up a race that was widely seen as Cuomo's loser. Mamdani has also provided fodder for the right, whether it be through city grocery stores or his past comments about the police.
With an emphasis on accessibility, Mamdani campaigned in media outlets everywhere from local television to podcasts to Fox News, and victory would justify his approach compared with the cautious strategies that have dominated many other Democratic campaigns. He also touched on pop culture in his advertising, launching Bachelor-thematic and Survivor-thematic videos during the performances themselves. His entertainment sponsors include Mark Ruffalo, Gavin Palone and Eve Ensler.
Cuomo, now running as an independent, tried to capitalize on voters other than Mamdani, even if it meant leaning to the right and making accusations of Islamophobia. In proposing more police and housing expansion, Cuomo stressed that he would be “ready on day one,” countering Mamdani's lack of administrative experience.
Before the Democratic primary, Cuomo lined up a long list of establishment donors, including from the entertainment industry, including Richard Plepler, Gary Ginsberg, and the likes of Jeffrey Sachs and Anthony Scaramucci.
Republican Curtis Sliwa refused to drop out of the race to boost Cuomo's chances. And yet some figures are on the right, such as Elon Musk and Trump. On Monday, the president wrote on Truth Social: “A vote for Curtis Sliwa (who looks so much better without the beret!) is a vote for Mamdani. Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You should vote for him and hope he does a fantastic job. He can do it, Mamdani can't!”
Andrew Cuomo speaking at an Italian American organization in Staten Island last week.
Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Governor of New Jersey: Republicans' best hope for defeat appears to be in the Garden State, where Democrat Mikie Sherrill faces Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state legislator who came close to defeating incumbent Phil Murphy four years ago. The polls have been tight, although the Cook Political Report still calls her a “lean” Democrat.
Sherrill received donations from industry figures including Jeff Beukes and last-minute support from Stephen Colbert, as well as other donors including Melinda Gates and Reed Hoffman. A Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor elected to the House in 2018, Sherrill has a strong resume that should position her well, but Ciattarelli has focused the blame on the state's Democratic majority, including key issues like affordability, in a year that would otherwise favor the party's loss of power nationally.
Jack Ciattarelli speaks during a campaign event Monday in Neptune City, New Jersey.
Photo by Kena Betancourt/Getty Images
Governor of Virginia: Democrat Abigail Spanberger led the polls over Republican Wince Earl-Sears throughout the campaign, in part because the state tends to reward the party that lost power in the District of Columbia in the gubernatorial election and also because deep cuts in the federal workforce have had a huge impact on the state.
Spanberger's ads tried to link Earl-Sears to Trump and job cuts. Taking a cue from Trump's strategy, Earl-Sears tried to hit Spanberger for her support of transgender rights.
Spanberger received significant contributions from Katherine Murdoch, Bill Kristol and The Bulwark's Hoffman, and Earl-Sears secured the support of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
One of those who has remained on the sidelines is Trump, prompting speculation that he does not want to support a campaign leading to defeat. At a televised rally on Monday, he mentioned Ciattarelli's name, but not Earl-Sears, according to NBC News.
California Proposition 50: Perhaps no national political figure stands to benefit more from Tuesday's election than Newsom, who led the effort to put Proposition 50 on the ballot.
Newsom and the state's Democrats initially appeared to have an uphill battle, given the tendency of “no” supporters to have an advantage in low-turnout elections. Moreover, it appeared that the opposing side would benefit from Charles Munger Jr.'s investment in the campaign of more than $30 million. Moreover, the Number 50 campaign ran an ad featuring a video of former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger defending independent redistricting commissions while denouncing attempts to abolish them.
But in recent weeks, polls have shown the Yes campaign taking a stronger lead as Newsom has tapped figures such as former President Barack Obama and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and framed the campaign as a way to vote out Donald Trump. Per Cal Matters, Newsom's campaign even told supporters they could stop donating because they had collected what they needed. Meanwhile, McCarthy's goal of raising $100 million to fight Proposition 50 appears to have failed.
Among the biggest industry donors to the Yes 50 program were Netflix Chairman Reed Hastings, who donated $2 million; Tom Rothman, who donated $500,000; and Jane Fonda's Climate PAC, which donated $10,000. Other donors include Jackson Browne, Chelsea Handler, Tom Ortenberg, Danny DeVito, Les Charles and John Landgraf.
