31st Critics' Choice Award Winners reflected how much of the industry sees the Oscar race and in many ways upended it.
With the Golden Globes arriving next Sunday night and voting on Oscar nominations beginning the following day on Monday morning, the CCA ceremony served as one of the final and significant pieces of data collection before Academy members begin filling out ballots. In this context, the best film directed and adapted from Paul Thomas Anderson's screenplay, One Battle After Another, sends an unmistakable message to others: this is a film worth conquering. Historically, this combination has been Oscar catnip—a director-driven vision combined with broad cross-industry support.
In the era of preferential voting, breadth usually trumps intensity, and One Battle After Another now looks like the title most capable of surviving each round of redistribution.
And yet, the reamer also comes with a built-in star. Critics don't vote for Oscar. This has long been my #1 rule when predicting awards, and it still applies today. But when a film satisfies critics while delivering cutting-edge storytelling that appeals to Academy voters of all demographics, it becomes extremely difficult to dislodge. Expect One Battle After Another to gain real momentum as the Oscar nominations approach, especially in the craft categories, and if it can maintain some traction with its acting rivals, including Chase Infinity, and perhaps add an extra piece of recognition for Regina Hall.
The central question now is whether One Battle After Another can complete Paul Thomas Anderson's trifecta without Also winning in the acting or craft category. Historically, this path is rare. The last two films to win best picture without at least some acting or crafting were The Greatest Show on Earth (1952) and Spotlight (2015). WITH Diversity Projecting One Battle After Another to near the top tier of all-time nomination totals, a scenario in which it so easily converts to Oscar night may seem counterintuitive for a film currently perceived as inevitable. A more plausible result might be reminiscent of The Shape of Water (2017), in which picture and director win paired with selective below-the-line support.
However, this race is far from over. Warner Bros. led all studios as a whole, largely thanks to “Sinners“, which topped all films with four wins: Original Screenplay for Ryan Coogler, Best Young Actor for Miles Caton, Best Cast and Ensemble and Best Score by Ludwig Göransson. This package suggests more than passion – it hints at a possible coalition. If The Sinners can carry that momentum through the Golden Globes and turn it into support from SAG, the Writers Guild and other major guilds, it could be the latest spoiler season.
Academy voters have repeatedly shown a willingness to reward bold originality coupled with technical achievement, and “Sinners” is starting to look like this year's version of that formula. The original screenplay win is particularly noteworthy. This is a category where the Academy often disagrees with critics, often favoring dialogue-based work over structural innovation. Coogler's win shows that the film has broken through in a way that puts it squarely on the Oscar ballot, especially among screenwriters who consistently outperform their respective positions in the Best Picture race.
Jacob Elordiwinner of the award for Best Supporting Actor for the film Frankenstein.
Getty Images – Critics' Choice
Netflix's Frankenstein also took home four prizes, highlighted by a surprise best supporting actor win for Jacob Elordi as the Creature in Guillermo del Toro's gothic epic. So far, Elordi has only been up for two critics' awards this season, from the New York Film Critics Online and the Oklahoma Film Critics Circle, raising two pressing questions. Has he just become eligible for a nomination after weeks of being considered marginal behind Benicio Del Toro, Sean Penn, Stellan Skarsgård and Paul Mescal? Or were we witnessing Aaron Taylor-Johnson's Critics Choice version of the effect, referencing his Golden Globe win for Nocturnal Animals that ultimately didn't lead to an Oscar nomination?
The main difference here makes sense. Frankenstein is much more firmly embedded in the best dialogue in pictures than Nocturnal Animals ever was. And most importantly, no winner of the Critics' Choice Award for Best Supporting Actor has ever missed out on an Oscar nomination. On that basis alone, Elordi now looks safe in the lineup (at least with a SAG nomination expected next week). Whether he will become a serious threat to win is a separate conversation that depends on success at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs. If this happens, the race will quickly rebuild.
The current races in other countries remain unstable. Jessie Buckley's win for her role as Agnes Shakespeare in Chloe Zhao's grief-soaked drama Hamnet came with the most emotionally resonant speech of the night, and offers voters a clear and targeted way to reward a film that may not be the best picture in the picture, given that Buckley was the film's only win. Her two closest rivals, Renate Reinswe and Rose Byrne, will have some serious catching up to do in the future if they are to beat Buckley.
Timothée Chalamet's best actor win for “Marty Supreme” further cemented his status as a front-runner heading into the Globes, where a genre-focused organization could further bolster his lead.
But that's never What simple. At 30, Chalamet will become the second youngest Best Actor Oscar winner in history, and is now the youngest ever to win a Critics' Choice Award. Remember, this is the same Academy that made Leonardo DiCaprio wait until he was 41 to decide to throw him a bone for getting into a dead carcass in The Revenant (2015). This race has been tight all season, with Chalamet trading critics for Michael B. Jordan in The Sinners, while Ethan Hawke remains a strong factor for Blue Moon stars and DiCaprio in the Best Picture frontrunner. The CCA's history offers some cautionary tales: Critics' Choice Award winners Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom), Christian Bale (Vice) and Michael Keaton (Birdman) are among those who lost their Oscars despite their performances in the film being considered a “no-brainer.”
Amy Madigan won for supporting actress in Guns. expected by many expertsBut questions remain about whether the Oscars are willing to reward a genre performance (especially one this bad)—and especially if she's the film's sole nominee. If Guns doesn't receive any additional nominations, such as acting or original screenplay, history may be unkind to these performers. Penelope Cruz's win for Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008) is the latest example of winning a single nomination in the supporting actress category, and it necessitated a rare category switch by Kate Winslet from supporting to lead in The Reader, which beat out all its predecessors. Before that, it's worth remembering Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny (1992), who was a surprise nominee that day (and an even more shocking winner on Oscar night). These are exceptions, not the norm.
Judging by all these somewhat vague estimates, there is still room for another contender (or two) to emerge. And with Oscar voting beginning Monday morning, the next week could mean more than any ceremony before.
