Is Venezuela “the most dangerous threat on the world stage”? According to American spy Jack Ryan, this is quite possible.
Ryan, of course, isn't real. He is the creation of writer Tom Clancy and the hero of his best-selling books, several film adaptations and the television series of the same name, which aired on Amazon Prime for four seasons.
But following US military attacks on the Venezuelan capital over the weekend and the capture of the President Nicholas Maduro, millions of people on social media are sharing the six-year-old findings of a fictitious CIA analyst about the South American oil state and the “threat” it poses.
An Video from Instagram titled “Venezuela Explained,” which includes a short excerpt from the episode, has been viewed nearly 40 million times in the past two days, although it has also been copied and widely shared on other social media accounts.
The scene is from the first episode Jack Ryansecond season in 2019 – portrays the famous spy played by John Krasinski (aka Jim from Office), telling an audience of university students why a faltering Venezuela could pose a greater threat to US security than Russia, China or North Korea.
The script for Ryan's lecture is loosely based on what was happening in Venezuela at the time. But now people are wondering if this predicted the current real-life situation.
Even one of the show's creators admits this.
“The goal of that season was not prophecy, but verisimilitude,” Carlton Cuse told Deadline. interview published on Sunday.
During Nicolas Maduro's first court appearance in Manhattan on charges including narco-terrorism, conspiracy and drug trafficking, he told a judge he had been kidnapped. Andrew Chang answers one of the biggest questions in the wake of the Trump administration's takeover of Venezuela's president: Was it a lawful arrest or a kidnapping? Images courtesy of The Canadian Press, Reuters and Getty Images.
Viral prophecy?
During his lecture, Ryan says that Venezuela “arguably has the largest oil and mineral resources on the planet” but is also “facing one of the greatest humanitarian crises in modern history.”
He points to a fictional leader Nicolas Reyes (played by Jordi Molla), whom Ryan describes as having “halved the national economy” and quadrupled the poverty rate in the six years since he came to power on a “wave of nationalist pride”.
Reyes appears to be a hybrid of Maduro and his predecessor, the late Hugo Chavez, the charismatic socialist leader who was popularly elected in 1998 and led Venezuela until his death from cancer in 2013.
Maduro has used much more of an iron fist, turning Venezuela into a rogue state and driving the economy into such ruin that Almost eight million people have left Venezuela According to the UN refugee agency, between 2014 and the end of 2025.
Ryan goes on to say that Venezuela has become a “failed state” that can easily be exploited by adversaries.
“Unstable governments are nothing less than the greatest opportunities,” he declares. Thus, Russia and China can never become the most serious threat “until countries like Venezuela stop leaving the door open.”
Ryan's lecture does not imply that the US should intervene in Venezuela – as just happened in real life – but rather configures a season-long storyline in which he investigates a suspected arms shipment into the Venezuelan jungle and uncovers a conspiracy involving the mining of a rare metal.
Canada's former UN ambassador Bob Rae says Canada has “absolutely no room for complacency” in response to the US intervention in Venezuela and says he believes Russia and China are privately celebrating that it will weaken the US case against its own aggression. Ray also says that the US claim to own the Western Hemisphere makes no sense: “This emperor has no clothes.”
Stranger than fiction
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the US will govern Venezuela meanwhile – comment from Secretary of State Marco Rubio tried to call back — and also take control of the country’s oil sector, which was nationalized under Chavez and Maduro.
This will not escape the attention of those who share and comment on the excerpt from Jack Ryan and his description of Venezuela's wealth of oil and mineral resources, which is largely accurate.
Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves, ahead of Saudi Arabia, Iran and Canada, which produces similar heavy bitumen oil, as well most significant gold reserves in Latin America and is a producer of other important minerals.
Chile's former ambassador to China, Jorge Heine, told CBC News on Sunday that he believes “the oil issue is central” to what's been happening in recent days.
Heine says this is evidenced by Trump's changing justifications for the spectacular raid on Caracas.
Trump said the US needs to take action to stop the flow of drugs from Venezuela, but turned his attention to discussing rebuilding the country's oil sector after Maduro's takeover.
Maduro has long accused Washington of wanting to take control of Venezuela's oil reserves.
Also central to virality Jack Ryan The clip represents the idea of US control over countries of strategic interest.
In this scene, Ryan explains that US adversaries like Russia and China have the opportunity to gain a foothold in the region when a country like Venezuela becomes a “failed state.”
In fact, Venezuela had moved closer to Russia and China many years ago, as the country became increasingly isolated from Western powers.
Bob Rae, Canada's former UN ambassador, says Russia and China are now “privately just rubbing their hands” over the fact that the US carried out the invasion, as it would weaken any resistance to their aggression against other territories such as Ukraine and Taiwan respectively.
“If one regional power says, 'Well, here's my doctrine and here's what we're going to do,' what stops other regional powers from saying the same thing?” Rae told CBC's David Cochrane Power and politicson Monday.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said Tuesday that the removal of Venezuela's “illegitimate, corrupt and repressive” leader is welcome news that creates an opportunity for a transition to democracy, before noting that he believes Canada's “low-risk” oil sector will remain competitive.
Unimaginable result
Maduro's fate has not yet been determined, unlike that of his fictional counterpart in Jack Ryan. (Spoiler alert: it won't end well for Reyes.)
While show co-creator Cuse is aware that it feels like fiction before reality, he says the story began seven years ago out of “a desire to tell a fictional story about the forces at work rather than imagining the outcome.”
“Our job was to make the situation believable. We approached Venezuela as a country where democratic ideals, economic reality and geopolitical interests have been in conflict for a long time – and where the choice is never easy,” he said.
But Cuse believes it's important for people to discuss the current situation.
“Any time the United States uses force abroad, this is a moment worth reflecting on,” Cuse said.
“The consequences are borne disproportionately by the people who have very little control over events. I can only hope that the situation moves towards stability and peace for the people living [in Venezuela]”
On a day when the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro turned the country into an uncertain territory, US President Donald Trump voiced threats against more countries, including Greenland and Colombia.
