The New England Patriots are tied for the best record in the NFL. And yet, this week they are not even welcome at home.
A bookmaker's power rating does not always correspond to public opinion or a team's performance. The Buffalo Bills are unlikely to win the AFC East, but they are still the favorite to win the AFC. The Bills have the lowest odds to win the conference at +375. That faith in the bills is reflected in the spread of items this week.
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The Bills, who lost to the Patriots at home in Week 5 and are two games behind New England in the standings, are 1-point favorites. that BetMGM against the Patriots on Sunday. This is an interesting line.
The Patriots are slightly disadvantaged by having the easiest schedule in the NFL this season, but winning 10 games in a row is difficult, no matter the opponent. And the Patriots have good road wins at Buffalo and Tampa Bay. The Bills have Josh Allen, but they aren't very good. They have big losses to the Falcons and Dolphins. They were in danger of losing to the Bengals at home last week until Christian Benford got the magic pick-6 and turned the game around. You can pick holes in New England's season if you want, but you can do the same with the Bills. On top of that, the Patriots were well rested after their bye week.
It's possible that Josh Allen will play the superhero role and keep the Bills' AFC East title chances alive (the Patriots clinched the division title with a win on Sunday), but we'll show the Patriots some respect and make them a +1 pick. It looks like this Pats team will have a hard time gaining the respect it deserves.
Drake May and the New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills in the teams' first meeting this season. (Photo by Katherine Riley/Getty Images)
(Catherine Riley via Getty Images)
Here are the rest of the NFL Week 15 picks with odds. from BetMGM:
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Buccaneers (-4.5) over Falcons
It's hard to support any team. The Bucs are coming off a terrible loss to the Saints and their offense is in shambles. Baker Mayfield, in particular, is experiencing a downturn. His rating over the last four games is 65.2. On the other hand, the Falcons have lost seven of eight, with their last two games being a loss to the lowly Jets and a 28-point loss to the Seahawks. But we need to choose one of them.
Bengals (+2.5) over Ravens
On Thanksgiving Day in Baltimore, the Bengals beat the Ravens 32-14. Not much has changed since then. The Ravens show week after week that they are not very good. So why are they preferred here? In theory, the Ravens could have suddenly become the all-star team they were this season, but we've been waiting months for this to happen and it hasn't happened.
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Giants (-2.5) over commanders
Last week, it looked like the Commanders had one more good run left this season, and it came two weeks ago when the Broncos lost in overtime. The performance against the Vikings last week was astonishingly bad. They may have already packed their luggage for their trip to Cancun. The Giants weren't very good either, but they were rested after the bye.
Browns (+7.5) over Bears
Several teams will be in the forecast positions this week. It's not that common in the NFL, but how will the Bears face the Browns if they know the Packers are coming to town six days later? The Browns have a good defense, and until the last few weeks, the theme of the Bears' season has been a lot of close wins, mostly against bad teams.
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Chargers (+4.5) over Chiefs
The only reason to believe in Managers scoring that many points is an argument that they are in must-win mode. But they've been in must-win mode for weeks now. It didn't matter. The Chiefs aren't as bad as their 6-7 record (they No. 6 in Dvoahaters), but this line seems a couple of points too high. Would it be so surprising to see the Chargers pull out a win?
Eagles (-11) over Raiders
Eagles look broken and the Raiders are Worst NFL Team. How fun. Geno Smith is unlikely to start this week for the Raiders, which might actually be a good thing. However, I can't beat the Raiders. If there was ever a good place for the Eagles, this is it. If they are struggling here, then they really have problems.
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Jaguars (-12.5) over Jets
Brady Cook could start for the Jets because Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor are injured. Cook is an undrafted rookie who scored 11 touchdowns in 12 games last season for Missouri. He'll be running an offense that won't be good no matter who plays quarterback. Anything seems possible in this strange NFL season, but it's bad timing for the Jets.
Cardinals (+9.5) over Texans
The problem with the Cardinals is that it's hard to see how they score points against the best defense in the NFL. But that doesn't mean the Texans' offense is a production bonanza either. We took the Cardinals last week based on how many of their turnovers were close. It didn't work last week. Let's try again.
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Broncos (+2.5) over Packers
The Broncos are certainly not without their flaws, but a 2.5-point home underdog? This is amazing. Both teams are 11-2 this week as home underdogs, which says a lot about the wide-open nature of the NFL this season. Another factor in Denver's support: The Packers play in Chicago in Week 16, which is essentially the NFC North title game. It shouldn't surprise anyone if they follow this game.
Lions (+5.5) over Rams
This is an even more extreme prediction. The Rams will play in Seattle four days after that game in a matchup that could determine the NFC West and the NFC's No. 1 seed. The Rams are a veteran team with a great coach, but how could they not think about this game? Plus, the Lions have extra rest after Thursday night's game, which is usually an advantage. Even if the Rams play well, the Lions have a good enough offense to always be in the game for backdoor coverage. Be careful if you're coming here with the Rams.
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Panthers (-2.5) over Saints
The Panthers have had a truly strange season, with plenty of quality wins and some miserable losses. One of those losses came to the Saints, and it wasn't nearly as close as New Orleans completely outplayed Carolina in a 17-7 game. How could we know which Panther team would show up? We'll look to whoever competes for the division title at the end of the season.
Titans (+12.5) vs. 49ers
The Titans have actually covered the spread in four of their last five games. They're not a very good team, but they still play hard. The 49ers need to blow up the Titans. But that's not how the NFL usually works.
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Colts (+13.5) over Seahawks
The Colts have eight wins, and not just because of Daniel Jones. They've been a pretty good team this season, despite their recent slump. Yes, it's scary to have to depend on 44-year-old Philip Rivers or someone who's playing quarterback against one of the best defensive players in the NFL. It can get ugly. But as is often said in this industry, double-digit underdogs usually look hopeless and then somehow cover them.
Cowboys (-6) over Vikings
Evidence that networks would need a court order to move a Cowboys game out of prime time. It's time to see if Vikings quarterback JJ McCarthy is turning. He looked good last week, but it came against a very poor Commander defense. If he can hit the road and have another positive game against a Cowboys defense that has gotten better since the Quinnen Williams trade, perhaps the narrative around him will start to change. But let's see how this happens first.
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Steelers (-3.5) over Dolphins
This is a surprisingly interesting game. The Dolphins started 1-6 but rallied to remain undefeated in the playoff race at 6-7. The Steelers may have terrible games, but they lead the AFC North at 7-6. This is a test for the Dolphins' hot streak, considering they've mostly beaten bad teams with Tua Tagovailoa getting very little results.
Last week: 6-8
Season to date: 106-98-6
