Vice President J.D. Vance visited my hometown of Allentown, Pennsylvania (he actually went to the Allentown suburb of Alburtis) to speak to a crowd of about 500 voters, including yours truly. Aspects of this event have already some of my colleagues reported RedStatters.
Essentially, the event May be summed up by this (excellent) headline of an article describing it in a Pennsylvania newspaper: “In Allentown, Vance says the economy is improving and blames Biden for the difficulties.”
Vice President J.D. Vance painted a rosy picture of the American economy during a visit to the suburbs southwest of Allentown, blaming the previous administration for high drug, food and housing prices. “If you look at every affordability crisis we talk about today in the United States of America, it's because we inherited a nightmare economy from Joe Biden,” Vance said at a podium behind a banner reading “LOWER PRICES, MORE EARNINGS.”
My (Allentown) GOP Congressman Ryan McKenzie (PA-07) was in attendance; US Secretary of Labor Laurie Chavez-Deremer; and Stacy Garrity, the two-term Pennsylvania state treasurer who is a likely challenger to Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro.
The three discussed what the Trump administration, Congress and Pennsylvania state officials are doing to address the affordability crisis.
Notably, I ran into Scott Presler, aka “Perseverance,” who was registering GOP voters during the Trump era.
Also:
- Vice President Vance's speech can be found Here.
- Secretary of State Chavez-Deremer's speech can be found here. Here.
- Congressman Ryan McKenzie's speech can be found here. Here.
- Some photos from the event can be found Here.
- And a White House press release detailing the GOP's economic efforts to address affordability issues – many of which were touched upon in those speeches – can be found. Here.
“Affordability” – which includes the more worrying word “inflation” – has become the catchphrase on everyone's lips these days. Lots of polls show the public now blames the Republican Party for high inflation.
In the previous column I marked that Republican Tom Bevan, co-founder of RealClearPolitics, believes that inflation is “the whole ball game“for 2026. This view is bipartisan. Doug Schoen, a prominent Democratic consultant but otherwise knowledgeable and credible commentator, believes these statistics are also critical.
SEE ALSO: Leavitt blasts legacy media for poor reporting on Biden's economic destruction
So let's look at the current inflation rate, how it compares to the inflation rate in previous political times and how the previous House of Representatives elections went, shall we?
At the initial stage it is important note that “Fed policymakers generally believe that an inflation rate of 2 percent (or slightly lower) is acceptable for a stable economy that is good for both consumers and businesses,” although “most central banks and governments closely monitor the annual inflation rate to ensure that it is at a balanced and moderate level, around 2 to 3 percent.”
Thus, an inflation rate above 3 percent should be somewhat dangerous for society and, by extension, for policymakers. Current inflation rate in the US is 3 percent.
Here is list of annual inflation rates from 1929 to 2024. I limit my attention to the modern period from 1970 to the present day. In particular, the 1970s and 1980s were times of high inflation. Here, thanks to Wikipedia (which in this case can be trusted), are changes in the House of Representatives in recent years.
And what do we see?
Not what I expected. Inflation by itself does not have a significant impact on House elections. In 1974, the Democrats won a big victory partly because of this, but also because of the Watergate scandal and the tensions surrounding the just ended Vietnam War.
Democrats also won big in 1982, although they had the advantage in redistricting helped immeasurablyThere were many other economic problems, including high unemployment, and these arose after the terrible recession cycle of 1980, which led to a boom in 1982.
But in 1978 and 2022, Democrats lost only a small number of seats due to high inflation, which perhaps there was This is the result of an effective campaign by Democrats during those years to soften the GOP's attacks on inflation.
Besides, the current inflation cycle isn't all that bad. The year to date is 3 percent. In 2024 the figure was 2.9 percent and in 2023 it was 3.4 percent. Of course, 2021 and 2022 have been terrible years. But if the rate continues to hover around 3.0 percent in 2026, it will be unprecedented for “in-party” Republicans to be punished by voters based on high inflation four years ago.
That's why it's so good that the vice president spent much of his time in Pennsylvania blaming the Biden administration for its inflation problems. First, it's true because in Biden's first two years he had a Democratic Congress willing to help him spend money like a drunken sailor, which caused high levels of inflation. Even propaganda currently nominated Democrats shows that Biden is to blame.
On the other hand, the Trump team is doing what I think this needs to be doneto blame the barely a year old Biden administration for the country's economic woes. In 2012, Barack Obama was still blaming George W. Bush for the US economy not living up to its potential, and that was a full four years ago.
During his State of the Union address Wednesday night, President Trump also talked about the economy, jobs, illegal immigration and how his administration is having to clean up the mess left behind by the Biden-Harris administration, RedState reported. reported.
Editor's note: President Trump is leading America into a Gilded Age, and Democrats are desperate to stop him.
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