This article was written by F. Brinley Bruton, a reporter based in Bogota, Colombia, and a reporter based in Caracas, whose identity is being withheld for security reasons.
CARACAS, Venezuela — Political reality is asserting itself in Venezuela as the regime once led by ousted President Nicolas Maduro strengthens its power in the country.
Many Venezuelans who opposed Maduro's rule were overjoyed. when US special forces captured him over the weekend, believing that this would be quickly followed by a transition to the form of a new government. But for some, those hopes have dimmed in recent days.
No political prisoners appear to have been released, and the government is cracking down on any new expressions of dissent. arrest people who they say were celebrating Capture of Maduro by the US military. The country's security and intelligence apparatus is at work, with masked paramilitary “colectivos” – armed civilians supporting the government – roaming the streets on motorcycles, and plainclothes military intelligence agents driving vans with official insignia and setting up roadblocks. The entire senior leadership remains unchanged, with the notable exception of Maduro himself.
No change of government. was highlighted by a recent secret intelligence assessment It has determined that senior members of the Maduro regime, including former Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who was sworn in as interim president on Monday, are best suited to lead Venezuela's government and maintain stability.
This assessment took into account Resignation of President Donald Trump Sources told NBC News that Maria Corina Machado, the exiled opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner, has been named the best person to take over the country.
These events were a blow to the gut for Michelle, a resident of Caracas.
“For years I have been wishing for my country's government to change and I thought that when that day came I would be very happy. But I am not,” said the 34-year-old architect, who returned to Venezuela last year. “We will have to pay somehow: either with oil, or with our own dignity and sovereignty.”
Michelle and others NBC News spoke to in Venezuela asked not to be identified for fear of government retaliation.
“A dangerous precedent is being set between the United States and Latin America,” Michelle said. “We understand that we are just another piece on the board in a struggle between powers for which the future of the Venezuelan people does not matter compared to the importance of valuable resources that are worth more than life itself.”
Trump has repeatedly spoken of his desire for Venezuela, which has the world's largest oil reserves, to open its market to American companies. On Tuesday He said Venezuela will “transfer” up to 50 million barrels of oil in the US, adding that oil revenues will be used to benefit both Americans and Venezuelans.
However, pessimism about recent events in Venezuela is not shared by all opposition supporters, including former political prisoner Luis Mata.
“It's like eating pizza – slice by slice. We have to trust the process.” a political activist and human rights activist living in exile told NBC News. The fate of the 800 to 900 political prisoners who remain imprisoned following the July 28, 2024 presidential election is unclear.
Mata, 26, was one of thousands of volunteers who guarded vote tallies during the 2024 vote. Maduro's government reversed what independent election observers, rights groups and foreign governments called a resounding victory for the opposition.
A few days after the election, Mata was detained by police as he tried to leave the city where he lived after learning that the government was looking for people to protect the votes. He was charged with seven crimes and spent four months in Tokoron prison. He is now outside Venezuela.
“Many people say the United States wants to grab the oil, but the United States is a trading ally. The United States supports freedom in Venezuela,” he said.
“For me, change is closer than ever. Nicholas has left the country and will never set foot in Venezuela again,” added Mata, who asked NBC News not to reveal his whereabouts for security reasons. “Freedom is about to come.”
Regardless of whether “freedom” is going to spread across Venezuela, the old regime is determined to ensure continuity. In a clear symbol, Delcy Rodriguez was sworn in as president and the country's leadership marched shoulder to shoulder in front of the National Assembly on Monday.
In a photograph released outside the presidential palace, Rodriguez is flanked on one side by her brother and National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez. To her right is Diosdado Cabello, who, as Minister of the Interior, Justice and Peace, oversees the police, counterintelligence forces and colectivos that instill fear among many Venezuelans. Also around her can be seen Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino in full military uniform and a smiling Nicolás Maduro Guerra, the son of the ousted leader.
This image contradicts Trump's repeated claims that the US is “in charge” in Venezuela.
“They are going after anyone who potentially supported the U.S. mission to take over Maduro,” James Story, the last U.S. ambassador to Venezuela, said at an event organized by the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank.
“They're going to arrest them, and they've already arrested some people. If they're doing that, then we're not running the country,” said Storey, who served as ambassador from 2018 to 2023.
Marlenis, a domestic worker from Caracas, doesn't seem too concerned about Trump's plans for Venezuela. She says that after 25 years of a system that made her poorer every day, Venezuelans have nothing to lose by trying something different.
“What else can we lose?” – she said while waiting for the bus home after work. “If things go bad, people are already used to bad things.”
