USC vs. TCU prediction, odds, time, spread, line: 2025 Alamo Bowl picks from proven model

The Big Ten and Big 12 will meet in the 2025 Alamo Bowl when the No. 16 USC Trojans take on the TCU Horned Frogs in the final game of the college football tournament schedule on Tuesday. USC was 9-3 and in the CFP until a loss to Oregon on Nov. 22 ended any realistic chance. TCU went 8–4 and finished the regular season on a two-game winning streak. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava is playing but will be without his top three targets as receivers Ja'Coby Lane and Makai Lemon and tight end Lake McRee opted out. TCU's most notable absence is cornerback Josh Hoover, who is heading to the transfer portal.

Kickoff at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas will take place at 9:00 pm ET. The Trojans are 4.5-point favorites in the latest USC vs. TCU odds, and the over/under is 56.5. Before choosing between TCU and USC, Check out the college football predictions with SportsLine's projection model.

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and is 31-19 in college football's best betting rankings since the start of the 2024 season.

Now the model has set its sights on TCU vs USC. You can visit SportsLine now to see the selection. Here's the FBS college football chances and trends for USC versus TCU:

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How to choose between USC and TCU

After simulating this matchup 10,000 times, SportsLine's model looks like this: went over the total (56.5 points). The total has dropped since opening to 58.5, impacted by absences such as Hoover and Lemon.

USC, however, should still be able to move the ball with Maiava leading the offense. Freshman receiver Tanuk Hines should be able to step up and be a top target while USC's running game remains in good shape with King Miller leading the way.

The Horned Frogs have a capable backup guard in Ken Seals who can step in. Seals hasn't played much this year but has attempted more than 700 career passes dating back to his time at Vanderbilt from 2020-23. TCU receiver Eric McAlister, an NFL prospect, committed to play, giving TCU another spark on offense. The SportsLine model projects a combined total of 65 as the over hits more than 60% of the time.

The model also says that one side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time. You can see the model selection at SportsLine..

So who will win TCU vs. USC and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread to jump on, all based on an advanced model that's simulated this play 10,000 times.and find out.