The Navy's most advanced aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, and its warship battle group are en route to the Caribbean in a stunning escalation of U.S. military power in the region.
The Trump administration has said his arrival in the coming days will help curb drug trafficking. Likewise, the report claims, the US will strike about 14 ships in the Caribbean and Pacific, killing at least 57 people and raising legal questions about the fate of military personnel ordered to carry out what some say are extrajudicial killings.
The administration said the strikes were justified because the country was in armed conflict with drug cartels.
Why did we write this
The growing US military presence near Venezuela has raised questions about whether the goal is a crackdown on drug trafficking or regime change. Trying to overthrow President Nicolas Maduro would be fraught with risks, with or without U.S. troops on the ground.
Others see the noise of regime change as a goal to overthrow Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whom the White House calls an illegitimate leader.
In fact, aircraft carriers are not particularly suited to counter-drug warfare. But they are very skilled at conducting airstrikes and acting as a staging area for troops, vehicles and cargo heading to hostile shores.
Mr Maduro may have gotten the point: Venezuelan troops have begun large-scale defense exercises. Mr. Maduro also announced the mobilization of 4.5 million militias, although experts doubt Mr. Maduro has a civilian military force of that scale.
The question is whether, as the White House suggests, this will involve US military strikes or whether it is simply flexing muscles to force Mr Maduro to resign.
Since the United States began exerting military pressure on Venezuela, a Russian transport plane linked to the country's military and the former Wagner Group, a Russian state-funded private military company, has landed in the country.
Mr Maduro is also increasing repression at home even as the economy there continues to deteriorate, with inflation expected to approach 270% by the end of 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund.
A hairdresser from Caracas, who wished to remain anonymous for fear of persecution, watched as her two sons fled the country, leaving her there alone. She closed her beauty salon because her clients “don't have the money. Everything is very expensive, so people have other priorities” than coloring their hair, she says.
Still, she attends Catholic Mass and hopes her country can come “closer than ever” to democratic change.
Regime change problems
There has been speculation about whether the Trump administration is seeking negotiation or confrontation in its military stance toward Venezuela.
Many analysts began to lean toward the latter view after the White House rejected Mr. Maduro's offer of “some pretty significant concessions to the United States in terms of handing over parts of its oil industry,” said Ben Friedman, policy director at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank. “The Trump administration told them to go camping.”
Since then, US troops have been seen training off the coast of Trinidad and Tobago, a sister state located near Venezuela. The guided missile destroyer USS Gravely also made a port visit.
U.S. Special Operations forces were also seen in the area, including the Army's Night Stalkers, the normally secretive 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment. These forces helped lead the US invasion of Panama in 1989.
The arrival of Gerald R. Ford will add another 5,000 sailors to the American military force currently consisting of 10,000 American troops, about half of whom are on warships. The other half is in Puerto Rico.
However, regime change is no easy task: a successful invasion of Venezuela would require a force of at least 50,000 troops, and some estimates as many as 200,000.
Most analysts believe that a US ground war scenario remains unlikely and would in any case be very different from the 1989 invasion of Panama.
“It won't be quick and easy. It will be long-term,” says Rebecca Bill Chavez, president of the Inter-American Dialogue. “And in the USA there is no appetite for death [American] troops on Venezuelan soil.”
The size and terrain of Venezuela, which includes urban centers such as Caracas as well as vast swathes of tropical forest, make fighting a ground war particularly challenging. Troops will also have to contend with numerous armed groups whose fate is closely tied to that of Mr. Maduro, including illegal mining groups and “all sorts of organizations involved in illicit trade,” Dr. Chavez said.
Airstrikes more likely
Analysts say US airstrikes are a more likely scenario than a ground invasion. The Gerald R. Ford is equipped with carrier-based F/A-18 Super Hornets and Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of 1,000 miles or more. US offensive strikes will likely be aimed at crippling Venezuelan command and control centers and crippling the country's key air bases.
The threat of airstrikes itself may be intended to encourage a military coup led by officers wishing to prevent US military intervention.
However, there are also glitches in this regard.
Any mass protests against the Maduro regime are unlikely, says a human rights lawyer in Caracas, who did not give his name so as to speak freely. “We know [government] the response would be completely cruel and disproportionate.”
And Mr. Maduro has proven that he “knows how to use carrots and sticks to keep his military leaders in check,” Dr. Chavez says.
In 2016, Maduro's government appointed military generals to oversee the country's food production and distribution. Instead of resolving the crisis, many have profited from selling overpriced imported food on the black market. Thanks to Mr. Maduro, Dr. Chavez says, military officers have “such control over the economy that they have a very vested interest in its survival.”
Venezuelan opposition leaders are also likely to oppose any deal with the Trump administration that would give Maduro or his military leaders concessions in exchange for them giving up power.
At the same time, a Venezuelan government that emerged from U.S. military intervention will carry its own risks, including the perception that it will be beholden to the United States, says Chomin Las Heras Leyzaola, a researcher at the Venezuelan Observatory at Universidad del Rosario in Bogota, Colombia.
Instead, he adds, regime change in Venezuela will depend on the ability of the opposition to remain united and offer a credible alternative.
There is also the issue of control. In the past, strikes “based on some theory that you can give opposition groups an opportunity to seize power” have historically given the United States “very little control over what happens,” notes Defense Priorities' Mr. Friedman.
“We've seen this in countless other cases,” he adds. A striking example is the US intervention in Libya.
The turmoil in Venezuela could also accelerate the flow of refugees into neighboring countries, Mr. Friedman adds, and “sooner or later into the United States.”
Pressure campaign tactics
For now, B-52 and B-1 bombers continue to circle the coast of Venezuela in what US Southern Command, which oversees Pentagon operations in Latin America, called on social media a “bomber attack demonstration.”
The fact that these flight paths are visible through open-source tracking reinforces the message of the White House pressure campaign. The same goes for the White House's $50 million reward for information leading to Mr. Maduro's arrest.
Some of President Donald Trump's closest supporters have suggested Maduro flee the country.
“I would go to Russia or China right now,” advised Republican Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, speaking on CBS's “60 Minutes” on Sunday. “His days are numbered. Something is going to happen.”
There could also be US military strikes to disrupt drug trafficking in Latin America, Dr Chavez says. Recent strikes on shipping in the Pacific could signal to Mexico, Colombia and other countries in the region that the United States is willing to use military force to stop illegal drug flows into the United States.
The upcoming National Defense Strategy is intended to emphasize the security of the Western Hemisphere and the United States, suggesting, some analysts say, that the current deployment will become the new normal, similar to the revamped Monroe Doctrine, which asserts a U.S. sphere of influence in Latin America.
Mr. Friedman says President Trump has proven “a singular desire not just to use force, but to stop using force at any moment.”
“The highly likely scenario is that the US will launch some sort of limited strikes on Venezuela,” he adds, “and then just walk away.”
