UK did ‘too little, too late’, leading to thousands more deaths

The UK's response to Covid was “too little, too late” and led to thousands more deaths in the first wave, a study into government decision-making has found.

The report also states that the lockdown could have been avoided if voluntary steps such as social distancing and isolation of people with symptoms as well as family members had been taken earlier on March 16, 2020.

By the time ministers acted it was too late and a lockdown was inevitable, the report said, then a week's delay in its introduction led to 23,000 extra deaths in England in the first wave than would otherwise have been seen.

The report criticized the governments of all four countries and described a “chaotic culture” in Downing Street.

Inquiry chair Baroness Hallett said that while the government was given an unenviable choice under extreme pressure, “all four governments failed to appreciate the scale of the threat or the urgency of the response it demanded at the start of 2020.”

She said ministers were relying in part on “misleading assurances” that the UK was ready.

Government scientists underestimated how quickly the virus was spreading and in the early days advised against introducing restrictions until the virus was near its peak to help build herd immunity, Lady Hallett added.

The nearly 800-page report (the second of 10 planned by the investigation) also outlined a number of other shortcomings:

• He said it was “unforgivable” that the same mistakes of spring 2020 were repeated in the autumn as a second wave began to mount and Prime Minister Boris Johnson repeatedly changed his mind on the need to tighten restrictions, meaning England's second lockdown was only introduced in November when control was lost.
• Violation of rules by politicians and their advisers – Dominic Cummings' trip to Durham and Barnard Castle in March 2020 is listed. – undermined public confidence in decision-making and significantly increased the risk that people will not comply with measures.
• The report described a “toxic and chaotic” culture underpinning the government during its response to the pandemic, which it said had affected the quality of advice and decision-making.
• All four countries were criticized for their planning and decision-making, which the report said was hampered by a lack of trust between Boris Johnson and first ministers.
• The Eat Out to Help Out scheme, proposed by Chancellor Rishi Sunak and agreed by Johnson to support hospitality venues in August 2020, was “designed in the absence of any scientific advice” and has “undermined public health messaging”.
• The impact on vulnerable groups – older people, disabled people and some ethnic minorities – was not adequately taken into account when deciding how to respond to the virus, even though the harm to them was foreseeable.
• Children have been neglected because ministers have not adequately considered the impact of school closures.

The report says lockdowns, while helping to save lives, are leaving lasting scars on society, stopping normal childhoods, delaying treatment for non-Covid illnesses and widening inequalities.

Modeling that shows 23,000 deaths could have been saved if the lockdown had been introduced a week earlier than 23 March 2020 and implemented in 2021. This figure would equate to 48% fewer deaths in the first wave up to July 1, 2020.

But the report does not say that the overall death toll from the pandemic – 227,000 in the UK by the time it ends in 2023 – would have fallen.

This is very difficult to say because it depends on many other factors that could reduce or increase the number of deaths as the pandemic progresses.

However, the inquiry praised the government for its “remarkable” rollout of the vaccination program and the way it emerged from lockdown at the start of 2021, giving vulnerable people time to get their jab. The report describes it as a turning point for the UK.

The report makes a number of different recommendations, including:

• It is better to consider the impact of decisions on those most at risk – both from the disease and the steps taken to respond to it.
• Increased participation in the advisory group of Sage scientists, including representatives from devolved governments, along with the creation of other expert groups to advise on economic and social impacts.
• Reform and clarify decision-making structures during emergencies within each country.
• Improving communication between the four countries during an emergency

Deborah Doyle, from Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice, said it was “horrible to think of the lives that could have been saved” under different leadership.

“We now know that many members of our family would be alive today if it were not for the leadership of Boris Johnson and his colleagues.

“Throughout the pandemic, Boris Johnson has put his political reputation before public safety. He pandered to his critics when Britain needed decisive action.”

Johnson has not yet responded to the findings.

But Cummings, who was Boris Johnson's chief adviser at the start of the pandemic, accused the investigation of a combination of “covering up and rewriting history”.

In a social media post, he said he was offered the opportunity to respond to the investigation's findings before the report was released, but declined, calling it “insider corruption.”

He said experts “advised us to do almost nothing” and “didn't recommend any major restrictions” as the country reached “natural herd immunity” by September.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the government would “carefully consider” the findings and recommendations.

He said improvements had been made in how the Government would respond to a major crisis, but added: “It is clear that local authorities and our public services, including the NHS, are under enormous pressure and in many cases have not fully recovered from the pandemic.”

“The costs of the pandemic continue to weigh heavily on the public purse.”

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey called on Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch to apologize on behalf of her party, saying the news that the lockdown could have been avoided was “devastating”.

“This tragedy must never happen again,” he added.

Additional reporting by Kachella Smith