U.S. military buildup near Venezuela sparks speculation of intervention : NPR

BOGOTA, Colombia — A U.S. military buildup in the southern Caribbean near Venezuela is raising expectations of an armed strike against the country but also raising fears it could create a quagmire in South America.

Tensions are rising as the Trump administration masses warships and thousands of troops in the Caribbean. On Monday it designated the Venezuelan government led by President Nicolas Maduro a foreign terrorist organization. And by saying Tuesday he was open to talks with Maduro, President Trump also hinted that the authoritarian leader's days were numbered.

But the American military intervention, which is strongly supported by many Venezuelans, including an opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machadowould be unpopular at home and extremely risky.

“This cozy idea that somehow Maduro will fall and the next day Maria Corina Machado will walk into the presidential palace and everyone will live happily ever after is a fantasy,” he said. Phil Gunsonwhich is based in Caracas as part of the International Crisis Group. “That won't happen.”

Since his first term, President Trump has pushed to overthrow Maduro, who has destroyed Venezuela's democracy and plunged the country into economic misery, forcing some 8 million Venezuelans to flee the country. Trump has long called on the Venezuelan military to overthrow Maduro, and in 2019 recognized him as an opposition lawmaker. Juan Guaido as the legitimate president of the country.

But Maduro is clinging to power, prompting Trump to consider military options during his second term.

The most extreme would be a full-scale US invasion, modeled on the American takeover of the tiny Isthmus of Panama in 1989, which involved 27,000 US troops and led to the arrest of that country's dictator Manuel Noriega.

But even as Trump sent the largest U.S. naval fleet to the Caribbean since the Cuban Missile Crisis, experts say the 15,000 U.S. troops aboard those warships will not be enough to take control of Venezuela. This South American country is larger than Texas and home to rugged mountains and the Amazon jungle.

If the US assembled a stronger invasion force, it could quickly subdue the Venezuelan army. Indeed, many of its low-paid rank-and-file soldiers may switch sides. But there will be significant pushback from non-traditional forces, says Jeremy McDermott, co-director Insight Crimewhich analyzes organized crime in Latin America.

“Any serious ground invasion of Venezuela would be extremely difficult,” McDermott said. “You put your boots on the ground almost everywhere in Venezuela, especially in Caracas and along the border areas, and you will face armed resistance.”

That resistance, he said, would include pro-Maduro militias known as colectivos, as well as at least 1,000 battle-hardened Colombian guerrillas who are based inside Venezuela, sympathize with Maduro and would act as pro-government paramilitary forces in the event of a US invasion. In addition, Maduro's government distributes weapons to civilians and trains them in shooting.

“This is a people's war to defend our country,” one military instructor told Venezuelan state television.

Still, most Venezuelans despise Maduro and voted against him in last year's presidential election, which many, including the U.S. government, believed was stolen by his regime. One Venezuelan analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity for his safety, said he had seen public opinion polls, not yet made public, that show a majority of Venezuelans would support U.S. military action to oust Maduro.

“There is no other way,” said Zaire Mandaray, a former Venezuelan state prosecutor now living in exile in Florida.

Last week, opposition leader Machado published “Freedom Manifesto” for a post-Maduro future, calling for the restoration of human rights, free markets, free speech, clean elections and the return of Venezuelan exiles. She declared: “We stand on the threshold of a new era.”

Meanwhile, anti-government influencers in Venezuela are promoting AI-generated videos fantasizing about US intervention. One shows Maduro in an orange prison jumpsuit while in the custody of U.S. officials, with a comment that reads: “All Venezuelans want this to be our Christmas present.”

This is in stark contrast to the new CBS News and YouGov poll in which 70% of Americans opposed US military action in Venezuela. In the same poll, only 13% considered Venezuela a “serious threat” to the United States.

As a result, even a limited strike against Maduro, such as a catch-and-kill operation similar to the one against Osama bin Laden, responsible for the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, appears doubtful, says Venezuelan opposition congressman Henrique Capriles. Unlike Bin Laden, “Do Americans Really Care About Maduro?” – said Capriles. “Not at all.”

Trump may be betting that his military buildup will create a pressure cooker in Caracas that will provoke a palace coup by military officers. But this is unlikely, since Maduro has surrounded himself with loyalists and Cuban bodyguards.

Vladimir Villegas, a radio broadcaster in Caracas, says the impact of the US pressure campaign so far has been to create greater cohesion within the Maduro regime and to increase harassment and repression of political opposition.

Even if Maduro is overthrown, there is no guarantee that the new leader will create a stable, democratic government, Capriles says. He notes that Maduro controls all branches of government, while members of his United Socialist Party occupy almost all city halls and government buildings across the country.

Moreover, following the US-backed overthrow of Maduro, there will be increased demands for US assistance in reconstruction, but Trump is not known to be a fan of nation-building.

“And what about the day after” the coup? says Capriles. “Is the US willing to spend $100 billion to help stabilize Venezuela?”

Officially, what is called Operation Southern Lance is an anti-drug mission in which U.S. forces blow up suspected drug ships in the Caribbean. But Venezuelan political scientist Benigno Alarcón says that with such a massive military build-up, this is not so much.

“I don't think they can call this operation a success if all they do is sink 10 boats and kill 80 drug dealers,” he says.

InsightCrime's McDermott calls the standoff “a giant game of chicken.”

“Maduro knows that if he can hold out, President Trump will not be able to keep 11% or more of the US fleet off the coast of Venezuela indefinitely,” he says. “So until Maduro blinks, time is on his side.”