At a meeting with Ukrainian officials in Kyiv last week, US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll gave a grim assessment.
Driscoll informed his colleagues that their troops were facing difficult situation on the battlefield and will suffer certain defeat at the hands of Russian forces, two sources familiar with the situation told NBC News.
The Russians were increasing the size and pace of their air attacks, the sources said, and had the ability to fight indefinitely, Driscoll told them. The situation for Ukraine will only get worse over time, he continued, and it is better to negotiate a peace settlement now than to find itself in an even weaker position in the future.
And there was more bad news. The U.S. delegation also said the U.S. defense industry could not continue to supply Ukraine with the weapons and air defense systems needed to protect the country's infrastructure and population, the sources said.
Driscoll's message came after he presented a U.S.-backed peace plan that Kyiv officials viewed as a capitulation to Moscow, two sources said.
“The message was basically, you're losing,” one source said. said, “And you need to accept the deal.”
Driscoll's meeting with the Ukrainians was part of an effort by some Trump administration officials to pressure the Ukrainians to accept the new law. US-backed peace proposal without delay, even as he accepted Russia's maximalist demands and demanded painful concessions from the Kyiv government, many current and former Western officials said.
Ukraine politely refused to sign the peace plan as presented, and the proposal was seriously reconsidered after discussions between Driscoll and Ukrainian officials last week.
The meeting was just the latest example of long-standing disagreement within the Trump administration over how to end the war in Ukraine. The split highlights a looming potential political rivalry between two former senators and potential presidential candidates vying for the presidency in 2028: Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
One camp, including Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and other officials, views Ukraine as the main obstacle to peace and advocates using U.S. leverage to force Kyiv to make major compromises, according to many current and former officials.
The other camp, represented by Rubio and other officials, views Russia as the culprit for an unprovoked invasion of its neighbor and says Moscow will only yield if it pays for its aggression with sanctions and other pressure.
His deputies vie for his attention along with Republican lawmakers and European leadersPresident Donald Trump turned back And more on how to solve conflict.
“It has been clear for some time that there is a rift, but we have never seen it in action as publicly as we have in the last few days,” said a former senior US diplomat with experience in Eastern Europe.
The White House sought comment Tuesday, citing a social media post in which Trump said the original peace plan had been “refined, with additional input from both sides, and only a few points of disagreement remaining.”
“I look forward to meeting with President Zelensky and President Putin soon, but ONLY when the agreement to end this war is FINAL or in its final stages,” Trump added in his message.
A State Department spokesman said: “President Trump's entire team, including Secretary Rubio, Special Envoy Witkoff, Secretary Driscoll and many others, is working in sync, as they have for 10 months, to end a senseless and destructive war.”
The Ukrainian Embassy in Washington did not respond to requests for comment.
Serious doubts
Furious diplomacy began last week after a purported 28-point US peace plan was leaked to the media.
The plan was the result of talks in Miami between Russian President Vladimir Putin's envoy Kirill Dmitriev and his American counterpart Vitkov, according to two sources familiar with the meeting.
White House officials told reporters it was an American proposal, although the document reflects repeated Russian demands to force Ukraine to cede territory it controls, reduce its military forces and reject any entry into the NATO alliance. Some elements of the plan contradicted previously stated positions of the Trump administration, including language that implied that U.S. military forces would be prohibited from entering Poland.
This was stated by Republican and Democratic senators. Rubio told them it was a plan developed by the Russians. But Rubio later said their version was false, and he and the White House later insisted it was a US proposal with “contribution” from Russia and Ukraine.
The White House took the unusual step of choosing Driscoll, the Army secretary, to brief the Ukrainians on the proposal rather than a senior diplomat. Driscoll, a former classmate of Vance's at Yale Law School, was en route to Ukraine on a previously scheduled visit to discuss drone technology, NBC News previously reported.
Stunned by the terms of the peace proposal, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed serious doubts but stopped short of vetoing the plan, saying his government was ready to hold diplomatic talks.
Rubio spoke cautiously about the plan after it was leaked: publication on X that the world “will require both sides to agree to difficult but necessary concessions” and that the United States will “continue to develop a list of potential ideas to end this war.”
Trump meanwhile increased pressure on Ukrainetelling reporters that Zelensky's choice was to accept the peace deal or “continue to fight with his little heart.”
Rubio flew to Geneva over the weekend, and after talks with the Ukrainians and appeals from European diplomats, the provisions most problematic for Ukraine were removed or revised, according to multiple Western officials and sources familiar with the matter.
Instead of the take-it-or-leave-it tone that White House officials have previously used regarding the peace plan, Rubio portrayed discussions as fluid and said the plan was moving quickly. “It's a living, breathing document. It changes every day as you type it.” he told reporters in Geneva.
By Tuesday, Ukrainians were on a positive note, expressing optimism about the 19-point plan currently being discussed.
“Our delegations have reached a common understanding on the main terms of the agreement that was discussed in Geneva,” said Rustem Umerov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine. wrote on social networks. And he raised the question of Zelensky's possible visit to Washington to conclude a deal.
Driscoll traveled to Abu Dhabi, where held negotiations with the Russian delegation Monday and Tuesday, officials said.
As the peace plan was revised from its original form, it resembled previous proposals that Russia had rejected.
Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, who “welcomed” the initial draft proposed last week, suggested on Tuesday that the Kremlin might reject what is now on the table. Lavrov referred to discussions between Trump and Putin at an August summit in Anchorage, Alaska, saying the latest draft proposal appeared to contradict the understanding reached during those talks.
“Some forces want to jeopardize Donald Trump's efforts and change the peace plan,” Lavrov said, adding: “If the 'spirit' of Anchorage is eliminated from this plan, then it will be a completely different story.”
As in previous U.S. diplomatic efforts, one faction in the administration tried to champion a proposal that favored Russia while other officials rejected it, with support from European governments and senior Republicans in Congress, according to Western officials, former U.S. diplomats and experts.
“If the division continues, it will be very difficult to pursue a coherent policy,” said William Taylor, a former ambassador to Ukraine who now works at the Atlantic Council think tank.
