Trump’s Venezuela oil push puts Canada on notice, weakens China, experts say

The Trump administration's plans to revive Venezuela's oil market give the United States an advantage over Canada and help weaken China, energy experts say.

Conservative politicians, including the leader of Canada's Conservative Opposition Party, are calling on Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to approve construction of a new Pacific Coast Pipeline to help the country's oil exports to foreign markets, amid concerns that United States involvement in Venezuela's market will significantly impact the competitiveness of Canadian oil. Canadian lawmakers are concerned that increased oil exports from Venezuela to the United States, Canada's largest oil buyer, will drive oil out of Canada, forcing the country to lower prices to remain competitive.

Meanwhile, experts add that US intervention in the Venezuelan oil market will also contribute to the weakening of China.

“This would be bad for all oil states, and Canada is essentially an oil state,” Steve Milloy of the Energy and Environmental Law Institute, a former fossil fuel industry lobbyist, told Fox News Digital.

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A “petrostate” is a term used to describe a country whose government and economy rely heavily on revenues from oil and natural gas exports.

“Canada, like all the oil states – Iran, all of OPEC, all these people – will be at our mercy,” Milloy added.

Canadian Conservative opposition party leader Pierre Poilievre said in a letter to Carney on Tuesday that the country needs to “move millions of barrels a day to overseas markets” to reduce Canada's “dependence” on the U.S. oil market. “Returning Venezuela to American markets means time is running out,” Poilievre Carney said in his letter, arguing that “our sovereignty depends” on protecting Canadian oil markets from the influence of the United States amid its plans to enter Venezuela and reassess its oil.

“The latest events surrounding the Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro “Stress the importance of accelerating pipeline construction to diversify our oil export markets, including a new Indigenous-owned bitumen pipeline to the northwest coast of British Columbia to reach Asian markets,” Alberta Premier Danielle Smith also said Monday.

But Carney said Canadian oil would remain “competitive,” citing “clearly low risk” and “low costs” thanks to the country's stable management, Reuters reported on Tuesday. “This makes Canadian oil competitive in the medium to long term,” Carney said. “We welcome the prospect of greater prosperity for Venezuela, but we also see the competitiveness of Canadian oil.”

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However, Milloy argues that if Canada is “forced to sell cheaper oil,” it will significantly impact the country's ability to generate revenue. But as Milloy also noted, “it's too early to tell what will happen” because the impact of the United States intervention on the Venezuelan oil market will take time to take shape.

“There’s still a lot to be decided,” Milloy said.

In addition to Canada, Milloy suggested to the President Donald Trump The decision to enter Venezuela and seize its oil market also helps the United States exert influence over China.

“Another important factor is that a lot of Venezuelan oil was going to China,” he said. “China is basically oil-poor, and that's why China is trying to electrify everything. They have a lot of nuclear power there, they use as much solar and wind power as they can because they are poor in oil, they don't have natural gas, and they need to insulate themselves when they do something stupid like invade Taiwan,” Milloy said. “If they depend on oil and gas, the world market will simply close. There will be an embargo and they will screw up. So they're trying to electrify everything as much as possible—trucks, cars, just everything. And this is just more leverage with China… They were buying oil from Venezuela, probably at a discounted price, and that will soon end. “Trump said he will sell oil to China, but it won't be at a discounted price.”

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This opinion was also supported by the President of the US Oil and Gas Association, Tim Stewart.

“In the long term, this will result in 40% of all global production coming under the US security umbrella – that's from Alberta to Argentina. And this will completely reset the global geopolitical world in terms of the US ability to project its interests around the world. We can do things internationally without having to deal with an immediate spike in oil prices,” Stewart told Fox News.

“Venezuela is a model of the Belt and Road Initiative.” The numbers I've seen now for Venezuela are about US$20 billion for China in the last few years alone, and that's largely backed by crude oil supplies,” Stewart continued. “It says to China, 'I'm sorry, but your failure to plan with good borrowing partners is not our financial liability.' It also sends a message to China: “Hey, get out of our hemisphere.” … [China] currently consumes about 80% of Venezuela's oil, so this will have a big impact on them.”