Trump’s toppling of Maduro is fraught with risk

The US may want to see many of its opponents removed from power. They usually don't send in the military or physically remove them.

Venezuela's abrupt awakening has taken two forms.

Its residents were suddenly awakened by the sounds of a deafening crash: the sounds of the capital of Caracas coming under attack as a result of US strikes on military infrastructure.

Its government has now woken up to any illusions that US military intervention or regime change were only a distant threat.

US President Donald Trump announced that Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro had been captured and expelled from the country.

This was a man who wielded enormous power: his government controlled the electoral system, the judiciary, the army, and also commanded the loyalty of powerful militia groups.

By late Saturday, he was photographed wearing a gray tracksuit, his hands bound and blindfolded, as he was being transported to a US prison. It was an extraordinary fall in power.

The US has long accused Maduro of leading a criminal organization involved in human trafficking, but he categorically denies this. It designated the Cartel de los Soles, a name the U.S. uses to describe a group of elites in Venezuela that it says organizes illegal activities such as drug trafficking and illegal mining, as a foreign terrorist group.

Maduro now faces trial in the United States on weapons and drug charges.

For years, Maduro's government has been accused of human rights abuses.

In 2020, UN investigators said the country's government had committed “egregious violations” amounting to crimes against humanity, such as extrajudicial killings, torture, violence and disappearances, and that Maduro and other senior officials were involved.

Human rights organizations have documented hundreds of political prisoners in the country, including those detained after anti-government protests.

These are the reasons why many in and outside the country wanted him to go, despite the fact that he still has a few loyal followers left. But that doesn't make Saturday's events simple.

The United States has not conducted such direct military intervention in Latin America since it invaded Panama in 1989 to overthrow then-military ruler Manuel Noriega.

Then, as now, Washington saw it as part of a broader crackdown on drugs and crime.

This latest operation, striking directly at a sovereign capital, represents a dramatic escalation of US involvement in the region.

Maduro's forced removal would be hailed as a major victory by some of the most hawkish figures in the US administration, many of whom argue that only direct intervention can remove Maduro from power.

Washington did not recognize him as the country's president after the 2024 elections. The opposition released electronic voting results after the vote, which it said proved Maduro did not win the election.

International election observers found the result neither free nor fair. Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was banned from running in it.

But for the Venezuelan government, the intervention confirms what it has long said: Washington's ultimate goal is regime change.

Venezuela has also accused the US of wanting to “steal” its oil reserves, the world's largest, and other resources – a charge it said was borne out after the US seized at least two oil tankers off the coast.

The strikes and seizure came after months of US military escalation in the region.

The US has sent its largest military presence to the region in decades, including warplanes, thousands of troops, helicopters and the world's largest warship. They carried out dozens of strikes on suspected small drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, killing at least 110 people.

Any remaining doubts that these operations were also, at least in part, aimed at regime change have now been dispelled by today's actions.

It remains deeply unclear what will happen next within Venezuela itself. Trump said the US would now “run” Venezuela, but did not specify what he meant.

Will the US try to force new elections? Will it try to overthrow other senior members of the government or military and force them to face justice in the US?

Trump said he is not afraid to “put his boots on the ground” and hinted that larger strikes could be carried out if deemed necessary.

Even more surprising, he also said that opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado did not have the “support and respect” in Venezuela to come to power. She often praised Trump and the two were allies. Many expected him to support her in any transition of power.

Instead, he hinted that he might work with Maduro's deputy Delcy Rodriguez instead, saying she is essentially “ready to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again.”

Ms Rodriguez was part of the Maduro regime. Trump appears to suggest they are interested in working with her on an agreed-upon transition.

Could this mean leaving power in exchange for not suffering the same fate as Maduro? Or accept power but enter into an alliance with the US, including, for example, greater access to its vast oil reserves? And if so, how will other Maduro allies, who have long accused the US of imperialist tendencies, and the Venezuelan opposition, which hates the Maduro regime, react to this?

Ms Machado said opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez in the 2024 elections should “take over” the presidency and declared the action a day of “freedom” for Venezuela. Some Venezuelans at home and abroad celebrated the event, believing it could mark the end of authoritarian rule and pave the way for a much freer country.

However, not all opposition supporters agree with this. Some may be fierce critics of Maduro, but also deeply skeptical of US intervention in the country – not least because the US supports coups and regime change, some of which have themselves led to dictatorships and human rights abuses.

Others warn it won't be easy given the government's grip on power in the country.

It controls the judiciary, the Supreme Court, the military and cooperates with heavily armed paramilitary forces known as colectivos.

Some fear U.S. intervention could trigger brutal fragmentation and protracted power struggles.

For Maduro's closest allies, Saturday's events raise pressing questions and concerns about their own future.

Many may be reluctant to give up the fight or allow the transition unless they feel they themselves can gain some protection or reassurance from persecution.

As for Trump, his administration has become increasingly muscular in the region with a bailout of Argentina, tariffs on Brazil to try to influence the trial of Trump ally and former President Jair Bolsonaro, and now military intervention in Venezuela.

He benefits from having more allies in the region now, as recent elections in Ecuador, Argentina and Chile have shifted the continent to the right. But while Maduro has few allies in the region, some regional powers such as Brazil and Colombia do not support US military intervention.

And some in Trump's own MAGA base in the US are also unhappy with his growing interventionism after promising to put “America First”.