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U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to impose tariffs on fertilizer imports into Canada could hurt Saskatchewan's potash industry if demand for a mineral critical to fertilizer production falls, according to a University of Saskatchewan professor.
“This will likely lead to layoffs at the mines, and there will simply be a glut of potash in Saskatchewan, forcing companies to reduce their production capacity,” said Stuart Smith, a professor of agricultural and resource economics at the University of Southern California.
“Saskatchewan potash companies will be very concerned about this.”
Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian fertilizer imports into the United States during a meeting at the White House on Monday when asked how he plans to increase domestic fertilizer production.
“A lot of this comes from Canada. And so if we have to, we will end up putting very tough tariffs on it because that's what you want to support here,” Trump said.
He did not provide further details on how those tariffs would work.
“You have imposed very tough tariffs,” he said. “Very soon you will be making your own fertilizer.”
Saskatchewan produces about a third of the world's potash, sending much of it south to the United States, where it is used as a key component in fertilizers.
According to the Saskatchewan Mining Association (SMA), this fertilizer is then used on crops to increase yields, help retain moisture and prevent disease.
“Fertilizers are an important factor, disruption of this trade risks lower application rates and lower yields, which will have implications for global food security,” the SMA said in an emailed statement.
The organization acted on behalf of the province's major potash mines, including K+S Potash Canada, The Mosaic Company and Nutrien.
According to the SMA, Saskatchewan's main competitors in potash production are Belarus and Russia, “which together produce about 37.5% of global potash production.”
Prime Minister Scott Moe said he recently met with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and neither wanted tariffs on fertilizer imports that would raise input costs for U.S. farmers.
“They will have to buy it somewhere else, namely in Russia.”
That will mean Saskatchewan companies will have to look to other markets to replace the United States, Moe said.
“When the president says things like he did yesterday, we tend to take them seriously,” Moe said.
“I think with regards to these statements, we'll just take a breath and move on, but this is a difficult and not very certain conversation.”
According to the Canadian government, 46 percent of potash exported from Canada in 2023 was destined for the United States.
Industry spokesman Fertilizer Canada released a statement to CBC saying the United States doesn't have enough potassium to meet domestic demand, despite Trump's efforts to boost domestic fertilizer production through tariffs.
“Potassium, for example, is a mined mineral dependent on natural deposits, and the U.S. does not have sufficient reserves to meet domestic demand,” Fertilizer Canada said in an email.
“To protect the competitiveness of North American farmers, access to a reliable supply of duty-free fertilizer is essential.”
Saskatchewan NDP Leader Carla Beck said Trump's remarks are further evidence that Canada cannot rely on the United States as a trading partner.
“Scott Moe seems to think that playing cowards or being polite will get us where we need to go. I see no evidence of this.”
