Business executives, customs brokers and trade lawyers are bracing for a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of US President Donald Trump's global tariffs, as well as a potential fight to obtain a possible US$150 billion refund from the US government for tariffs already paid by importers if he loses.
Expectation that the court will strike down tariffs imposed by Trump under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act has grown since arguments in the case in November, when both conservative and liberal justices expressed skepticism about whether the law gives him the authority to impose tariffs.
The court is expected to rule on Friday but, as usual, did not specify which case or cases will be heard.
Some companies expect that even if a court rules Trump's tariffs invalid, the Republican president will not make it easier for them to get refunds.
“It’s not in the government’s DNA to return money. And Trump wouldn't want to give the money back,” said Jim Estill, CEO of Danby Appliances, a Canadian company that sells small refrigerators, microwaves and laundry equipment through big box stores including Home Depot.
The products are made in China and other Asian countries targeted by Trump's tariffs. If Danby can get his $7 million back, Estill said he's also concerned Home Depot will want its customers to take a cut.
“It’s just going to be a dog’s breakfast,” Estill added.
The US raised about $150 billion
Trump is the first president to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs. This law has historically been used to impose sanctions on US opponents or freeze their assets.
Its IEEPA-related tariffs generated $133.5 billion in fees between February 4 and December 14, 2025, the latest date for U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data. The current total is estimated by Reuters to be closer to US$150 billion, based on continued average daily collection rates from late September to mid-December.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that the Supreme Court will support Trump.
And U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer said the Treasury Department and CBP would need to sort out reimbursement rights and expressed confidence that any lost revenue could be replaced by new tariffs imposed by Trump under different legal authorities.
Trump imposed IEEPA-related tariffs in two ways. Last April, he announced “reciprocal” tariffs on goods imported from most U.S. trading partners based on his declared national emergency over the U.S. trade deficit. In February and March, he imposed tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, calling trafficking in the painkiller fentanyl and illegal drugs a national emergency.
Companies are hungry for refunds, but not optimistic
According to Joseph Spraragen, a New York customs lawyer with the firm of Grunfeld, Desiderio, Lebowitz, Silverman & Klestadt, any clawback process will depend largely on whether the Supreme Court provides clawback guidelines or instead remands the case to a lower court, most likely the Court of International Trade.
Importers typically have 314 days to correct their imports before they are “liquidated” and no refunds are allowed. This deadline expired for imports from China, which were hit with tariffs in February 2025.
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Some companies, including warehouse club operator Costco, have filed preemptive lawsuits against CBP to preserve their rights to potential recovery. Costco, in its court filing, called the action necessary because even if the Supreme Court rules the tariffs are illegal, importers who paid IEEPA-related duties “are not guaranteed to recover the illegally collected duties” without legal recourse.
Similar lawsuits have been filed by tuna canner Bumble Bee Foods, cosmetics maker Revlon, Ray-Ban eyewear maker EssilorLuxottica, Kawasaki Motors and Yokohama Tire.
Jay Foreman, CEO of Basic Fun!, which sells Tonka trucks, Care Bears and K'Nex construction toys, said he was skeptical the company would see even a fraction of the $6 million in fees it paid before the Christmas sales rush. Foreman said he expects the Trump administration to “obfuscate or delay” reimbursement payments even if it is ordered to do so.
Pete Mento, director of trade consulting at consultancy Baker Tilly, said his best advice is for companies to keep careful records and act quickly. Mento said he believes companies will have to prove they paid IEEPA-based rates before they can receive a refund.
“People who file their claims early and do them correctly will reap the benefits the fastest,” Mento said. “And knowing how the processes work in Washington, it could be years before you see that money.”
A technical change announced by CBP on January 2 that will move all tariff refunds to electronic distribution as of February 6 offers hope for an orderly process.
While the move fell short of importers' hopes for a fully automated refund process, “it does in some ways signal that Customs is fully prepared to move forward with refunds if the Supreme Court does decide to do so,” said Angela Lewis, global head of customs at freight forwarding and logistics company Flexport.
A CBP spokesman did not respond to questions about how the agency would respond to a ruling against Trump's tariffs if it ultimately happens.
