Trump’s Maduro raid could set precedent for authoritarian powers across globe

With the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, Donald Trump has demonstrated more than ever his faith in the power of his will, backed by the brute force of US military power. On his orders, the United States put Maduro behind bars and will now “rule” Venezuela.

The US President made this announcement at a remarkable press conference, of great significance for US foreign policy around the world, at his club and residence in Florida, Mar-a-Lago. Trump said the US will govern Venezuela “until we can achieve a safe, proper and reasonable transition.”

He said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who told him: “We will do whatever you need… She, I think, was very kind, but she really has no choice.”

Trump was stingy with details. He said that “we're not afraid of boots on the ground if we have to [them]”.

But does he believe he can govern Venezuela remotely? Will this demonstration that he will back words with military action, lavishly praised at Mar-a-Lago by both Marco Rubio and US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, be enough to change Venezuela and intimidate Latin American leaders into compliance?

It sounded like he believed something similar.

Obviously, this will not be easy or smooth.

A respected think tank, the International Crisis Group, warned in October that Maduro's fall could lead to violence and instability in Venezuela.

That same month, The New York Times reported that defense and diplomatic officials in the first Trump administration were mulling what might happen if Maduro fell. Their conclusion was the prospect of violent chaos as armed factions fought for power.

The removal and imprisonment of Nicolás Maduro is a remarkable assertion of American military power.

The US assembled a huge armada and achieved its goal without losing a single American.

Maduro ignored the will of the Venezuelan people in celebrating his own election defeat, and his departure will no doubt be welcomed by many of the country's citizens.

But the consequences of US actions will reverberate far beyond Venezuela's borders.

The mood at the Mar-a-Lago press conference was one of triumph as they celebrated what was undoubtedly a textbook operation carried out by highly professional American forces.

A military operation is only the first stage.

America's record of regime change by force over the past 30 years is disastrous.

Political follow-up is what makes or breaks the process.

Iraq plunged into bloody disaster after the 2003 US invasion. In Afghanistan, two decades and billions of dollars worth of nation-building efforts were unraveled within days of the 2021 U.S. troop withdrawal.

None of these countries were in America's backyard.

However, the ghosts of past interventions in Latin America—and the threat of future interventions—could hardly be more promising.

Trump tried out a new moniker, the “Donro Doctrine,” after a declaration made by President James Monroe in 1823 warning other powers not to interfere with America's sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere.

“The Monroe Doctrine is a big deal, but we have largely replaced it,” Trump said at Mar-a-Lago. “Under our new national security strategy, American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be challenged again.”

He said Colombian President Gustavo Petro had to “watch his ass.”

He later told Fox News that “something needs to be done about Mexico.”

Cuba is certainly also on the US agenda, led by Rubio, whose parents are Cuban-American.

The United States has a long history of armed intervention in Latin America.

I was in Haiti in 1994 when President Bill Clinton sent 25,000 troops and two aircraft carriers to bring about regime change. Then the Haitian regime collapsed without firing a shot. The 30 years since then not only did not promise a better future, but also became a period of almost continuous suffering for the people of Haiti. Haiti is now a failed state dominated by armed gangs.

Donald Trump talked about making Venezuela great again, but not about democracy. He rejected the idea that the country should be led by Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.

“I think she will have a very hard time being a leader, she has no support… She has no respect.”

He did not mention Edmundo Gonzalez, whom many Venezuelans consider the rightful winner of the 2024 elections.

Instead, the US, at least for now, is backing Maduro's Vice President Delcy Rodriguez.

While there must have been some kind of internal collusion that gave the US military the inside information it needed to remove Maduro, the regime created by his predecessor Hugo Chavez appears to have been unscathed.

It is unlikely that Venezuela's armed forces, despite any humiliation their generals may feel at their failure to resist a US attack, will go along with US plans.

Military and civilian supporters of the regime have enriched themselves through networks of corruption that they will not want to lose.

Civilian militias have been armed by the regime, and there are other armed groups in Venezuela.

These include criminal networks as well as Colombian guerrillas who supported the Maduro regime in exchange for asylum.

The US invasion of Venezuela brings into stark relief some of the sources of Trump's worldview.

He does not hide the fact that he covets the mineral wealth of other countries.

He has already tried to profit from Ukraine's natural resources in exchange for military aid.

Trump has made no secret of his desire to control Venezuela's vast mineral reserves and his belief that US oil companies were robbed when the oil industry was nationalized.

“We are going to extract an enormous amount of wealth from the ground, and that wealth will go to the people of Venezuela and people from outside of Venezuela who used to live in Venezuela, as well as to the United States of America in the form of reparations.”

This will heighten fears in Greenland and Denmark that he will look north as well as south.

The US has not given up on its desire to absorb Greenland due to its strategic position in the Arctic, as well as natural resources that are becoming increasingly available as its ice melts due to global warming.

Maduro's operation also dealt another major blow to the idea that the best way to govern the world is to follow an agreed set of rules laid out in international law.

That idea was dismantled before Donald Trump took office, but he has demonstrated repeatedly both in the U.S. and abroad that he believes he can ignore laws he doesn't like.

European allies who are desperate not to anger him, including Prime Minister Keir Starmer, are at pains to say they support the idea of ​​international law without condemning the fact that Maduro's operation is a flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter.

The US excuse that its military was simply facilitating the execution of an arrest warrant for a drug lord masquerading as Venezuela's president is unconvincing, especially given Trump's claims that the US will now control the country and its oil industry.

Hours before Maduro and his wife were arrested, he met with Chinese diplomats at his palace in Caracas.

China condemned the US actions. The statement said that “US hegemonic actions seriously violate international law and the sovereignty of Venezuela and threaten peace and security in Latin America and the Caribbean.”

The US must “stop violating the sovereignty and security of other countries.”

Even so, China may become a precedent set by US actions.

He views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has said returning it to Beijing's control is a national priority.

In Washington, the Democratic vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Senator Mark Warner, certainly fears this. He issued a statement saying Chinese and other leaders would be watching closely.

“If the United States claims the right to use military force to invade and capture foreign leaders it accuses of criminal behavior, what stops China from claiming the same power over Taiwan's leadership? What stops [Russian President] Vladimir Putin will not demand a similar justification for the kidnapping of the President of Ukraine? Once that line is crossed, the rules that keep global chaos in check will begin to crumble, and authoritarian regimes will be the first to take advantage.”

Donald Trump seems to believe that he makes the rules, and what applies to the US under his command does not mean that others can expect the same privileges.

But that’s not how the world of power works.

Its actions in early 2026 point to another 12 months of global turbulence.