The slogans are compelling: “No forever wars” and “America first.”
President Donald Trump promised both in his 2024 campaign, and they remain core tenets of the MAGA base that helped elect him and continues to empower him.
But his dramatic Jan. 3 invasion of Venezuela and capture of President Nicolas Maduro, who went on trial Monday in New York on narco-terrorism charges, takes those promises into new territory.
Why did we write this
Donald Trump campaigned on the slogans “No Forever Wars” and “America First,” and these principles remain core tenets for many in his MAGA base. His administration's intervention in Venezuela could test those promises.
Will Trump's supporters stand by him as he debates U.S. intervention in the South American country over alleged international drug trafficking, anti-democratic practices – and a desire to reclaim oil reserves he says were stolen years ago from major American companies?
The answer could influence the November midterm elections, in which Democrats have an excellent chance to regain control of at least the House of Representatives and stop Trump's dominance in Washington. Much will depend on how long and costly the US involvement in Venezuela turns out to be. Is the president serious about “running” Venezuela, as he said after Maduro's arrest, or will the United States simply tighten the existing oil blockade, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued over the weekend? In any case, the administration acted without congressional approval, so Mr. Trump will “own” the outcome.
Polls show Americans are divided on Trump's handling of Venezuela, with 39% of Americans approving and 46% disapproving, according to Jan. 4 data. YouGov poll. Another Washington Post poll showed a 40% to 42% split.
How those numbers change over time will largely depend on what Mr. Trump does. The few congressional Republicans who have so far raised concerns have been predictable: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, whose last day in Congress was Jan. 5; Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, who is not running for re-election; and Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who faces a Trump-backed primary opponent this year.
However, analysts do not believe Trump's support in Venezuela will decline anytime soon.
“The calculation that Donald Trump makes is: 'I can do what I want. Who's going to stop me?” And so far, the answer is no one,” says Chris Edelson, a political scientist at American University in Washington, noting that the situation could change.
A few months ago, Trump had already expanded the definition of the slogan “America First” when he told the Atlantic that it means whatever he wants it to mean.
But the president's ability to keep enough of the public – or at least his core supporters – to himself can only go so far. In last November's midterm elections, Democrats won key races, perhaps a hint of the challenge the GOP faces in this year's midterm elections when Trump is not on the ballot.
If the affordability problems that fueled Democratic gains last year persist, leading to GOP losses this November, Mr. Trump's ability to pass major legislation in the final two years of his presidency could be severely limited.
This is where the slogans “America First” and “No Forever Wars” can make a difference.
“Americans have long been skeptical about building democracy,” Carlene Bowman, a polling expert at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote in an email.
If Mr. Trump is perceived as too focused on Venezuela—or Ukraine, or Iran, or Israel—disillusionment with his MAGA base could hurt him in November, even if it just means lower voter participation. His vague statements that the US would “run” Venezuela until there was a transition of power brought back memories of decades of US military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Another element of the battle for public opinion comes from the world of podcasts, such loud voices as Trump ally Steve Bannon. Mr. Bannon, who has more isolationist views than the president, wondered on his “War Room” podcast whether the Venezuela operation was “a reminder of our fiasco in Iraq under [President George W.] Bush.”
Among Democrats, the reaction has been largely negative – although most are starting by noting that Mr Maduro is a bad actor who was not properly elected and welcoming the fact that the Venezuelan people are rid of him. Democratic lawmakers are condemning the fact that Mr. Trump did not get congressional consent before launching what they say is an invasion of Venezuela. most likely violated international law. Many Democrats said the move could justify similar actions China or Russia.
One prominent Florida Democrat with significant support from Venezuelan exiles made clear in a statement that she was in no way defending Mr. Maduro. But she also conveyed a message that Republicans would likely be suspicious of: a call for nation-building.
“The capture of Venezuela's brutal, illegitimate ruler Nicolas Maduro, who oppressed the people of Venezuela, is welcome news to my friends and neighbors who fled his brutal, lawless and disastrous rule,” said Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, co-chair of the House Democratic Leadership and Policy Committee and former chair of the Democratic National Committee. “However, cutting off the head of a snake is of no use if it simply regrows. Venezuelans deserve the promise of democracy and the rule of law, not a state of endless violence and growing disorder.”
Staff writer Victoria Hoffmann reported from Boston.
