With his dramatic weekend actions in Venezuela, President Donald Trump has begun to realize his vision for Latin America and the Western Hemisphere predicted in his recently announced National Security Strategy.
In that document, released last month, the Trump administration said the United States would “affirm and enforce the Trump Corollary of the Monroe Doctrine,” a 21st-century addition to the 19th-century vision of hemispheric relations.
The consequence is a more aggressive posture toward perceived national security threats in the region and a willingness to take military and other coercive action to advance U.S. interests.
Why did we write this
What was behind the arrest of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela? The Trump administration's hemispheric strategy is reminiscent of Roosevelt's 1904 conclusion to the Monroe Doctrine, which asserted the right of the United States to intervene in Latin American affairs in cases of “chronic wrongdoing.”
Saturday's actions – the kidnapping of President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas to face federal drug trafficking charges in the US, as well as the deadly bombings of military installations and some civilian buildings across the country – were written in every sense of the “Trump investigation.”
So are the president's repeated references to Venezuela's oil wealth and claims that U.S. oil companies will return to restart the country's oil production and repay what he says the U.S. owes.
For the administration, the Trump Corollary is a reversal and update of Monroe's policies. Roosevelt Inquest of 1904which asserts the right of the United States to intervene in Latin American affairs in cases of “chronic wrongdoing.”
However, according to some analysts, the events of recent weeks have less to do with drugs and oil (although these factors are important) and more to do with the restoration of American power.
“Over the last month, with the passage of the new National Security Strategy and the approval of the Trump Corollary (boat strikes and other military actions in the Caribbean, and now Saturday's actions inside Venezuela), it has become clear that this is all about power and the Trump administration's reaffirmation of what 'might be right,'” says Britta Crandall, a political scientist specializing in Latin American studies at Davidson College in North Carolina.
“The impetus behind this escalation and new vision for the region is a worldview defined much less in terms of strategic alliances built over decades,” she adds, “and more through the use of force in pursuit of U.S. national interests.”
The world will have its first opportunity to collectively respond to the US move when the UN Security Council meets for an emergency meeting on Monday. Also on Monday, Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores are expected to appear in federal court in Manhattan in New York.
Mr. Trump and other administration officials have adopted the position they warned Mr. Maduro of declaring U.S. hegemony in the region.
“The Monroe Doctrine is a big deal, but we have gone way beyond it,” Mr. Trump said in remarks to the press on Saturday. “American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never again be questioned.”
Assertions that “America's interests will come first” in the hemisphere in the future were emphasized by administration officials on Sunday news programs.
Addressing Venezuela's oil wealth and U.S. plans to take control of it to influence Venezuelan politics, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on ABC News' This Week: “We hope… this will bring positive results for the people of Venezuela.” But, he added, “at the end of the day, the most important thing is [it would be] in the national interest of the United States.”
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said on Fox News Sunday that the United States will insist on leadership in Venezuela that is “a partner who understands that we are going to protect America.” She said the US “will not allow you to continue to undermine American influence and our need for a free country… to cooperate.”
Saturday's military intervention sent shockwaves through Latin America and across the hemisphere.
“This action underscores that the United States is very clearly looking to the south for resources and some key minerals,” says Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “The US will seek the same 'forced submission' from the region, and especially from smaller countries, that it imposed with tariffs.”
On a national level, Cuba (and its communist regime) may be the first to feel the real impact of intervention in Venezuela, some analysts say, suggesting that financially lucrative agreements between the two countries, including government-to-government payments, are unlikely to last.
“When you consider the number of Cubans working in Venezuela, who have been an important source of hard currency for the island, it is likely that this will hit hard and fast,” Dr Freeman says.
Over the past decade, Cuba has gradually reduced its dependence on Venezuelan oil as production has declined. But the hit to revenues could further deteriorate Cuba's already strained services, especially power generation.
“If there are power outages in the capital,” Havana says, Dr. Freeman says, “it could lead to huge demonstrations and political instability.”
Others say Venezuela's neighbor Colombia, led by leftist Trump opponent President Gustavo Petro, may also have something to worry about.
“Leaders in the Western Hemisphere today see the world differently and understand that the norms by which we lived have been broken and changed,” Dr. Crandall says. “But I think Peter should be at the top of the list of who is concerned,” especially after Mr. Trump warned him on Saturday to watch himself, she said.
Speaking at his Mar-a-Lago resort, Trump repeated unsubstantiated claims that Peter “has factories where he makes cocaine.” He also cited the fact that Colombian cocaine is supplied to US markets.
Beyond the hemisphere, analysts say the two key world leaders to watch for response to the Venezuela intervention will be China's Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Major powers, especially China and Russia, are likely to learn two very different lessons about the United States from all of this,” says Michael Desch, a professor of international relations at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana.
“The first lesson is that America's big stick is back, and so they will have to take into account America's perception of external attackers in the region,” he says. “But the alternative is that they see the U.S. taking a spheres of influence approach to its immediate regions,” he adds, “and they use that as an opportunity to apply something similar” in their own spheres.
“Does this set the stage for the Xi-roe doctrine that China applies to Taiwan and other countries in the region?” – he jokes. Or, as others have suggested, is Mr Maduro's arrest prompting Mr Putin to consider attacking Kyiv to kidnap Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky?
For many foreign policy analysts, Mr. Trump's surprise announcement on Saturday that the United States will “run” Venezuela raises questions about whether Mr. Trump, who came to power by avoiding “forever wars,” is tempted to try his hand at nation-building.
After the setbacks and failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, might Mr. Trump be tempted to demonstrate his mastery of nation building 3.0?
Mr. Rubio on Sunday appeared to abandon his boss's vow to “govern” Venezuela. But the benefit for Mr. Trump, if he does choose this path, is that Venezuela has a strong base of political and economic institutions to build on despite the deteriorating situation under Mr. Maduro and his mentor and predecessor Hugo Chavez.
“Venezuela is not Afghanistan,” says Dr. Crandall.
Others have suggested that Mr Trump is likely to lose interest in “running” Venezuela, especially as he realizes the country's dazzlingly huge oil reserves won't be tapped to generate billions in revenue anytime soon.
Dr. Desch, citing the president's “track record” in Gaza and elsewhere, says: “I suspect it won't be long before the president declares victory in Venezuela and moves on to something else.”
