Donald Trump is set to embark on a tour of Asia that many hope will ease trade tensions with countries in the region and repair frayed ties with China. Trump will begin his trip on Sunday with a meeting of Southeast Asian countries in Malaysia before flying to Japan to meet new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi early next week.
But the most important stop on his itinerary will come at the end of the month, when he is expected to discuss trade, and possibly Taiwan, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in South Korea.
Will he meet Xi Jinping?
Trump meeting with Xi Jinping expected on Thursday next week, White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt said. But what they may be talking about is generating more speculation than any other issue on the agenda for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, and Leavitt did not provide further details Thursday night. With much at stake, both men are under pressure to calm trade tensions that risk damaging the world's two largest economies.
Trump recently proposed reducing tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States, but insisted that Beijing also had to make concessions, including resuming purchases of American soybeans and limiting the flow of ingredients used to make opioids. fentanyl – which caused an overdose epidemic in America – and the lifting of export restrictions to the US rare earth mineralswhich are necessary for the production of high-tech products such as smartphones.
Failure to ease trade tensions could further harm U.S. industries already facing the consequences of Trump's tariffs. The US president was optimistic ahead of his meeting with Xi Jinping, telling reporters this week: “I think we will end up with a fantastic deal with China… it will be fantastic for the world.” However, timing is of the essence: the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, which has not yet been confirmed by Beijing, will take place just as an additional 100% tariff on Chinese exports to the US is set to take effect.
The leaders are also expected to discuss Taiwanamid concerns that Trump could withdraw Washington's support for the democratic, self-governing island under pressure from Xi Jinping. Beijing has reportedly asked the White House to declare that it opposes Taiwanese independence – a move that would please China, which views Taiwan as a renegade province that should be reunified with the mainland.
Will there be tariff agreements for Southeast Asia?
Trump's presence at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur comes at a critical time for the regional bloc, whose 10 members together exported $312 billion worth of goods to the United States last year, up from $142 billion in 2017. The US is the region's largest export destination and depends on ASEAN economies to keep its manufacturing supply chain moving.
Trump's response to the growing trade deficit with Southeast Asian countries was to introduce “reciprocal” tariffs 10% to 40%, prompting ASEAN leaders to issue a joint statement expressing concerns about “America First” protectionism, saying Trump's measures “pose significant risks to the multilateral trading system and the stability of global supply chains.”
Trump, who has not attended an ASEAN summit since 2017, will meet the bloc's leaders on Sunday, when discussions are expected to focus on Vietnam and Thailand, the two biggest sources of the US trade deficit.
The end of another “war”?
Trump's stop in Malaysia may be motivated less by trade than by a desire to put himself at the center of any deal aimed at stopping dispute over undemarcated points along the 817 km (508 mi) land border between Thailand and Cambodia.
Malaysia facilitated a fragile ceasefire after five days of clashes in July left dozens dead and some 300,000 forced from their homes, but the cause of the tension remains unclear. Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hassan recently told reporters that Trump is “eager” to see a peace deal signed during the summit – a breakthrough that the US president will undoubtedly use to bolster his reputation as an international peacemaker.
Will he meet Kim Jong-un (again)?
With Donald Trump you can never say never. At this stage, a meeting looks unlikely, although the prospect of an end to the war in Ukraine is quickly receding and Trump could be persuaded to turn his attention to his “friend” Kim and the intractable problem of North Korea's nuclear program.
CNN, citing anonymous sources, reported over the weekend that U.S. officials had discussed arranging a meeting during his visit to Asia, and Trump said in August that he would like to meet with his North Korean counterpart “in the appropriate future.”
But his three previous attempts to persuade Kim to curb his nuclear ambitions – at two summits in 2018 and 2019 and during a quickly arranged visit to the US demilitarized zone the division of North and South Korea later that year ended in failure. Since then, Kim has overseen continued improvements to North Korea's ballistic missile program, sending more than 10,000 troops to it. fight shoulder to shoulder with Russian troops in the war in Ukraine and joined a loose anti-Western alliance with Beijing and Moscow.
Days before Trump was due to arrive in South Korea for the APEC summit, North Korea fired two short-range missiles in what the regime called a successful test of a new “hypersonic system” aimed at bolstering its nuclear deterrent. Against this background, it seems to Trump that now is not the right time to bet on Kim again.
Did the ICE raid in Georgia last month cool relations with South Korea?
Last month immigration raid The actions of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents at a South Korean-owned electric battery plant under construction in Georgia have sparked widespread outrage in Seoul. About 300 South Korean citizens were detained amid allegations that they were working at the plant illegally. The South Korean public is unlikely to forget the incident anytime soon, but the country's President Lee Jae-myung has more pressing issues to discuss with Trump in Gyeongju, where they are expected to meet on Wednesday.
They include conclusion of a summer agreement invest $350 billion into the U.S. economy, which has been hobbled by disagreements over what form South Korean investment should take. As part of the agreement, the United States agreed to reduce tariffs on South Korean cars from 25% to 15%, the same level as those imposed on cars from Japan and the EU.
Some observers have suggested that Lee, who met with Trump at the White House in August, could use the lingering fallout from the ICE debacle to extract concessions from Trump. South Korean trade officials say they have made progress on trade in recent weeks but admit that “one or two” issues remain unresolved.
