WASHINGTON — President Trump made dozens of promises as he campaigned to retake the White House last year, from boosting economic growth to banning transgender athletes from women's sports.
But one promise seemed most important to many voters: Trump said he would not only bring inflation under control, but also lower food and energy prices.
“Starting the day I take the oath of office, I will rapidly lower prices and we will make America affordable again,” he said in 2024. “Your prices will go down, your gas prices will go down, and your heating and cooling bills will go down.”
He did not complete the assigned task. Gasoline and eggs are cheaper than a year ago, but prices for most other goods, including food and electricity, are still rising. The Labor Department estimated Thursday that inflation is 2.7%only slightly better than the 3% Trump inherited from Joe Biden; electricity increased by 6.9%.
And it has left the president facing a serious political problem: Many voters who supported him last year are losing faith.
“I voted for Trump in 2024 because he promised America first… and he promised a better economy,” Ebyad, a nurse from Texas, said in a Focus Group podcast hosted by Bulwark publisher Sarah Longwell. “It feels like all those promises have been broken.”
Since Inauguration Day, the president's job approval has dropped from 52% to 43% in average poll calculated by statistician Nate Silver. Approval of Trump's handling of the economy, once one of his greatest strengths, fell even lower to 39%.
It's dangerous territory for a president hoping to help his party maintain a slim majority in next year's House elections.
For Republican pollsters and strategists, the reasons for Trump's decline are clear: He overpromised last year and is now failing to deliver.
“The biggest reason he won in 2024 was his promises to reduce inflation and stimulate the economy,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres. “That's why he won over so many traditionally Democratic voters, including Hispanics. … But he couldn't succeed. Inflation went down, but it didn't go back.”
Last week, after deriding accessibility complaints as “democrat hoaxTrump has belatedly launched a campaign to convince voters that he is working to solve the problem.
But at his first stop, a rally in Pennsylvania, he continued to argue that the economy was already in great shape.
“Our prices will go down significantly,” he insisted.
“You're doing better than ever,” he said, implicitly dismissing voters' concerns.
He urged families to cope with high tariffs by cutting them: “You know, there are some foods you can give up,” he said. “You don't need 37 dolls for your daughter. Two or three are fine, but you don't need 37 dolls.”
Earlier in an interview with Politico, Trump was asked what grade he would give to the economy. “A-more-more-more-more“, he said.
The president weighed in on the issue again Wednesday in a nationally televised speech, but his message was largely the same.
“A year ago our country was dead. We were absolutely dead,” he said. “Now we are the hottest country in the world… Inflation has stopped, wages are rising, prices are falling.”
Republican pollster David Winston, who has advised GOP members of Congress, said the president still has work to do to win back voters who supported him in 2024 but are now disillusioned.
“When families pay the same price for a hamburger that they used to pay for a steak, there's a problem that can't be sugar-coated,” he said. “The president’s statements that ‘we don’t have inflation’ and ‘our food supply is down’ contradict voters’ reality.”
Another problem for Trump, pollsters say, is that many voters believe his tariffs are driving up prices, making the president part of the problem rather than part of the solution. A YouGov poll in November found that 77% of voters believed tariffs were contributing to inflationary pressures.
Trump's popularity has not declined; he still commands the devotion of his fiercely loyal base. “He's at the lowest point of his second term so far, but he's well within the range of approval for his first term performance,” Ayres said.
However, he has lost much of his support among independent voters, young people and Latinos, three groups of “swing voters” that put him in first place in 2024.
Inflation is not the only problem that undermines his position.
He promised to lead the economy into a “golden age,” but growth was uneven. Unemployment rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level in more than four years.
He has promised massive tax cuts for the middle class, but most voters say they don't believe his tax cut bill has done them any good. “It's hard to convince people that they got a tax break when no one's tax rates actually got cut,” Ayres said.
He has kept his promise to launch the largest deportation drive in U.S. history, but many voters complain he has broken his promise to focus on violent criminals. Silver's average approval of his immigration policies has fallen from 52% in January to 45% now.
A Pew Research Center poll in October found that 53% of adults, including 71% of Hispanics, believe the administration has ordered too many deportations. However, most voters approve of Trump's border security measures.
Republican pollsters and strategists say they believe Trump can reverse the downward trend ahead of the November congressional elections, but it may not be easy.
“You look at what voters care about most and propose policies to address those issues,” suggested GOP strategist Alex Conant. “It starts with prices. So you talk about permitting reform, energy prices, artificial intelligence. [artificial intelligence] … and legislation related to health care, housing and tax cuts. You could call it the Accessibility Act.”
“A laser focus on the economy and the cost of living is job number one,” said GOP pollster Winston. “His policies on regulation, energy and taxes should have a positive impact, but the White House needs to give them more consistent attention.”
“The people voted for change in 2024,” he warned. “If they don't get it – if inflation doesn't start to come down – they may vote for change again in 2026.”
