It's not in President Donald Trump's nature to highlight the negative – at least when it comes to his own actions or plans – and for now it puts him at risk of appearing out of touch with Americans who are struggling to make ends meet.
“We had the greatest economy in the history of our country,” Trump said of his first term in an interview with Norah O'Donnell on CBS's “60 Minutes” a week ago. “But my second term undoes everything.”
Two days later voters crushed Republican candidates and ballot declines in Virginia and New Jersey, results that strengthened NBC News poll showing that a large majority of voters – about two-thirds – believe the president has failed to deliver on his promises to curb inflation and improve the economy. The common slogan of Tuesday's winning Democratic candidates, both progressives and centrists, was “affordability.”
One only needs to look at Trump's predecessor to see the danger for the president. President Joe Biden ignored inflation early in his only term, then his administration dismissed it as “transitory” effect government spending during the Covid-19 pandemic before trying to minimize political consequences loss of public trust.
For Trump, who has called himself a “fan” for the country, his handling of the substance and messaging about availability represents a bet that he's on the right track—and can quickly prove it—even if most American voters don't think so right now. Biden thought the same thing.
“Trump has enormous risks,” said Newt Gingrich, a former House speaker and Trump ally. He is betting that his economic policies, including tariffs, tax cuts and investment in the U.S., will create a “boom of extraordinary proportions” by next summer, Gingrich said in an interview.
“If that's true, the Republicans will have a very good year in 2026,” Gingrich said of next year's midterm elections. “If this is not true, Republicans will have a very difficult 2026.”
Like Trump, Biden has argued that the overall economy is strong even as taxpayers are hurting. And like Trump, Biden has watched his party's fortunes change at the ballot box a year after his own election.
“As our economy has begun to recover rapidly again, we have seen some price increases,” Biden said in July 2021. “Some people have raised concerns that this could be a sign of persistent inflation. But that is not our view. Our experts believe, and the data shows, that most of the price increases we are seeing are expected to be temporary.”
That November, 12 months after Biden beat Trump in Virginia by 10 percentage points, Republican Glenn Youngkin won the state's governorship by 2 percentage points. On Tuesday, Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, won Virginia by about 15 percentage points. NBC News exit polls showed that the economy was the top issue for 48% of voters — more than double the 21% who chose health care, which was the second-ranked topic.
Trump, who raises hundreds of millions private dollars build the White House Ballroom and hosted a “Great Gatsby” themed party Halloween Party in the midst of an ongoing government shutdown, said this week that the costs of everyday life are not something he wants to do.
“The reason I don't want to talk about affordability is because everyone knows it's a lot cheaper under Trump than it was under Sleepy Joe Biden, and prices have come down significantly,” he said of his predecessor in a call with reporters last week.
Trump is frustrated because he doesn't believe he's getting the credit he deserves for efforts to lower prices, said one senior White House official, who acknowledged the administration hasn't done a good enough job of communicating on affordability issues.
It is clear that other Republicans are following voters' lead. In announcing her candidacy for New York governor on Friday, Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik put the issue of affordability top of mind. Instead of blaming Trump, with whom she is close, Stefanik turned her attention to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is seeking re-election.
“The No. 1 issue is affordability,” Stefanik said in an interview with WHAM Radio's Bob Lonsberry. “New York is the most unaffordable state in the country because of Kathy Hochul’s leadership.”
And even if Trump won't acknowledge it, his aides say the White House is paying attention to the hardships families across the country say they are experiencing.
“The president is very interested in what's going on, and he recognizes as much as anyone that the economic turnaround takes time, but all the fundamentals are there, and I think you'll see him very, very focused on prices and the cost of living,” White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair said. told Politico.
But that too poses a challenge for Trump, who controls consumer prices, which rose 3% in the 12 months ended at the end of September. He has the biggest megaphone in the country, and his own words, which are very similar to Biden's, can drown out anything his aides say.
Many Democrats who served in the Biden White House remember a president who disagreed with voters about the strength of the economy and paid the price for failing to acknowledge the electorate's feelings.
“Economic statistics can be great, and in President Biden’s case they were,” Democratic strategist Adrienne Elrod said in a text message exchange. “But when prices are too high and the messenger keeps saying, 'No, you're wrong, the economy is actually fantastic,' the messenger starts to lose the trust of voters.”
Elrod, who worked for Biden on the campaign trail and in the White House, said Trump is making the same mistakes as Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, who took his place at the top of the Democratic ticket in 2024.
“You have to meet voters where they are—never forget President Clinton's effective use of the phrase, 'I feel your pain,'” she said. “Our failure to do this in 2024 is ultimately one of the reasons we lost the presidential election, and Trump's failure to do it now is one of the reasons he is constantly underwater with voters on the economy.”
