Tdevelopment path for young people NFL defenders are cruel. They're being pulled into the deep end as franchises try to figure out if their investment is worth it before they're thrown overboard if things go wrong. The League is eating its youth. The path from potential franchise starter to career backup – or out of the league – has never been shorter.
And this path was accelerated almost deliberately. Part of this is due to the rookie salary scale, which allows teams to get rid of perceived mistakes early. This is also due to changes in grades. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson broke the mold for everyone. They redefined what a starting quarterback could look like, the skills needed and the rate of development.
College offenses became too open and gimmicky, resulting in quarterbacks fluent in college football but not versed in the mechanics of the NFL. So the league tried to fix it itself by drafting the toughest, most athletic prospects imaginable and then worrying about teaching them how to play quarterback later. He ignored the fact that Jackson and Allen (the latter raw, the former not) played professional passing games in college, shortening their learning curve when they entered the league. And trying to find the next Mahomes is like scouring baseball leagues looking for find the next Victor Vembanyama.
There were hits and misses. You know the names: Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, Zach Wilson, Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance. All were chosen to fit the post-Mahomes vision of the modern quarterback.
Herbert and Love have become success stories, although there is a caveat. Herbert would have been an ideal defender in any era – and he himself became a victim of an unstable environment. Love was allowed to slowly cook in the background during three seasons in Green Bay, backing up Aaron Rodgers. The rest was nothing. And they're all candidates for the NFL's next wave of success stories: the rebuilding project. Three of this season's early MVP candidates – Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones – were first-round picks and were rejected by the teams that drafted them, only to find success elsewhere thanks to a good system and professional experience.
Wilson is potentially already in the process of rebuilding territory by backing Tua Tagovailoa in Miami. Richardson's early performances with the Colts were tempered by injuries and allergies to the intricacies of the professional game. And then there's Lance, perhaps the most convincing of them all.
Lance was supposed to be the future for San Francisco 49ers. He fit the mold: 6ft 4in, with a live arm and wheels. The 49ers traded three first-round picks and one third-round pick to draft him. Teams traditionally don't put that kind of capital on a “maybe”; they do this when they think they have seen the next one.
But Lance has always been a mystery. He may be the purest expression of Josh Allen's NFL hangover – the belief that tools and temperament can overcome inexperience. Lance began playing in college in little more than a season, winning a national championship at the lower FCS level before leaving for the draft. He made only 99 passes. high school. In college, he played for North Dakota State, a well-oiled machine that runs a stripped-down version of the NFL offense. In theory, this made him better prepared than most proponents of the project style. In practice, this meant that it was hardly tested.
Still, the college numbers were stellar: 2,947 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, just one interception; another 1,300 yards and 18 scores on the ground. 49ers; the timing seemed right too. Jimmy Garoppolo was slowly falling out of plan. Selecting Lance for the team wasn't just a leap into an untested prospect. This represented Kyle Shanahan's stylistic shiftThe most doctrinaire offensive coach in the league. Shanahan saw what was happening in Baltimore, Kansas City and Buffalo and wanted to keep up. He was looking for a quarterback who could combine the rhythmic fundamentals of his offense with more vertical elements on the ground and in the air. Consider the Eagles on their way to the 2023 Super Bowl with Jalen Hurts. Lance, despite his modest resume, meet all requirements.
It didn't work. Lance's rookie hitting was promising, if uneven. By his second year, Shanahan handed him the keys. Two weeks later he broke his ankle and ended the year. Brock Purdy took his place. Shanahan abandoned the Lance experiment when it became clear that Purdy was more than a funny story and that he offered some of what the coach was looking for in Lance, but at a fraction of the price.
Being busted in the draft isn't just a matter of one player; it's about the opportunity cost of choosing that player over all the others. Make a redraft today and the Niners could take Micah Parsons or Ja'Marr Chase with the third pick. If they stood calmly in a draft and No if they traded, they could take Mac Jones, 2021 draft initial pick and now, ironically, the 49ers' starter while Purdy recovers from injury.
Two years after the draft, Lance was traded to Dallas for a fourth-round pick, a rounding error compared to the fortune the 49ers spent to get him. He hardly played. When he did, he looked exhausted, unable to get up to speed in the league. In his final preseason appearance with the Cowboys, he made five picks. Then, last offseason, he signed a one-year, $6.2 million deal with the Chargers to back Herbert and go through Jim Harbaugh's quarterback school.
Lance has now earned $36 million in his NFL career, meaning he cost his teams just over $7 million per start. But if there was ever a perfect place for Lance to develop, develop and become an asset rather than dead weight, it's the Chargers. Sitting behind Herbert, there is no pressure on him unless there is an injury. Harbaugh is one of the best quarterback developers of his generation. Harbaugh can do X's and O's with anyone. But like O'Connell, he understands that the development extends beyond this area. A year in Harbaugh's kitchen could put Lance in the running for the next guy this offseason.
The league's mistake wasn't finding quarterbacks who could perform miracles. It was the belief that magic, once clicked, could heal everything. Mahomes, Allen and Jackson break through defenses not because they step outside the lines, but because they have also mastered the intricacies of the position. They follow a script for 80% of the shots and then improvise the remaining 20%. The NFL, after seeing the fireworks, abandoned the fund.
Lance is a case in point. The Niners looked at his potential and moved on when it became clear how long it would take him to become even a competent starter if he were ever to reach that level. They gave away the young player partly because of his struggles on the field, but also to clear the deck for Purdy.
The pendulum swung back. The pursuit of profit is exciting. But Darnold, Mayfield and Daniel Jones have proven that experience has value in having an adult in the room. They know how to get in and out of a crowd. They saw every defense. They know where the blitz is coming from. They can change the defense, line everyone up and keep things running smoothly. At the very least this is work. But this season they were more than just caretakers; they changed the situation.
The search for the next Darnold or Mayfield is the latest trend. The Jets went their own way this year, signing Fields after he showed signs of life in Pittsburgh. He fit that mold as a former first-round pick who fell early to a poorly managed franchise. But despite a solid performance against Cincinnati last week, Fields doesn't look like he has a good chance.
There will be others. Richardson is the most likely. Bryce Young, maybe. Caleb Williams if the Bears remain lost in the desert. Even Trevor Lawrence, if Jacksonville gets tired of waiting for his potential to be realized. Perhaps it's Mac Jones, who was retained in New England after a successful rookie season. Jones turned his Niners career around by superbly filling in for the injured Purdy. He's shown enough this season that there will be interest on the trade market this offseason, although San Francisco won't give him away lightly.
From the draft class, Lance became a forgotten man. Fields and Mac Jones have a chance to start again. Lance is still waiting. His last significant snaps came in the preseason, when he made his way through the Hall of Fame and scored two touchdowns. “He didn’t have a lot of playing experience,” Harbaugh said later. “We’re trying to give him that and he’s done well.”
Lance is only 25, younger than Saints rookie Tyler Shaw, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. “Twenty-five years old. It's just the fattest part of the bat in life. For a quarterback, that's the fattest part of the bat,” Harbaugh said of Lance.
The NFL has a tendency to destroy careers. You're either a guy or you're not. But the truth is that careers are rarely linear. It took Alex Smith almost ten years to find the right place. Geno Smith disappeared and then re-emerged as a quality starter in Seattle. Mayfield played on the scout team in Carolina before becoming the Bucs' starter.
Lance showed Harbaugh enough in the preseason to win the Chargers' backup job. He has played some mop-up minutes this season. If he's needed down the road, he could play a starting role sometime next year. Even a year on the bench working with Harbaugh gives him more stability than he has had since college. He had problems in the pros, but buried somewhere in the rubble was an interesting player.
Taking him as the next rebuilding project this offseason would be a nice win for someone.
