next year will be divided, with
in the country's two largest markets while growing in smaller centers, according to
Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd.
report for 2026.
The report, released Tuesday, showed the prices.
The fourth quarter of 2026 will decline cumulatively by 4.5 percent compared to the same period in 2025, and prices on the West Coast will fall by 3.5 percent, compared with an overall price increase of one percent in Canada.
But price increases are expected in several cities. Quebec leads the way with a cumulative price increase of 12 per cent in the final quarter of 2026 compared to 2025, followed by Montreal at five per cent and Regina at four per cent.
Meanwhile, prices in Ottawa, Halifax and Edmonton are expected to rise by two per cent, while prices in Calgary and Winnipeg are forecast to rise by 1.5 per cent.
”
will become more regional over time,” said Phil Soper, chief executive of Royal LePage, adding that “the pandemic has been a game changer in that people have been able to live where they want to to a certain extent.”
He said prices in Calgary and Montreal have risen faster than Toronto and Vancouver since the pandemic.
“Regional differences are at work, but they are normalizing, getting closer,” he said. “I expect it to be closed for another two to three years.”
Soper said there are several factors at work in Toronto and Vancouver that have led to lower prices.
Prices in Toronto
expected to decline by one percent
projected to decline by 6.5% by the end of 2026.
“There are deeper holes that need to be dug in Toronto and Vancouver, especially in the condominium sector. There's just so much inventory there,” he said, adding that the population will have to start growing again to drive price growth in that sector.
In Vancouver, where single-family home prices are expected to fall by five per cent and condo prices by three per cent, Soper said the “irrational exuberance” that has gripped that market during the pandemic is still “working itself out.”
Moreover, he said:
prohibitions for foreign buyers
impacted Vancouver more than any other city in Canada, as did a sharp decline in immigration.
“It’s a big city, but it’s nowhere near as big as Toronto,” he said. “These things have a greater impact.”
A special coincidence of circumstances
demand for housing has increased
in Quebec, Soper said, citing a combination of a housing shortage, difficult geography that makes construction difficult and a boom in some industrial areas such as high technology.
People tend to focus on house prices, but he said that
are the “biggest trend” and a leading indicator of where the market is heading.
“We started to see volumes pick up in Vancouver and Toronto over the summer because… we're obviously at the tail end of a long period of monetary easing,” he said. “So the message to consumers is that we are reaching normal interest rate levels.”
Soper also said he doesn't expect a return to the five-year fixed mortgage rates to the two or three percent that were offered at the height of the 2021 real estate boom.
• Email: [email protected]
