‘Thursday Night Football’ prediction, odds: Buccaneers vs. Falcons picks from expert on 22-11 run

The NFC South opens Week 15 of the NFL. Atlanta Falcons visit Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. Both teams are struggling, with Atlanta losing seven of its last eight and Tampa losing three of four. The Falcons defeated Seattle 37-9, eliminating Atlanta from postseason contention. The Bucs, meanwhile, just upset New Orleans 24-20 on Sunday. This rivalry is as even as it gets, as the teams split their 64 all-time matches 32-32.

Kickoff will take place at 8:15 pm ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The Bucs won the Week 1 meeting 23-20 on the road. Tampa Bay is a 4.5-point favorite on DraftKings in the latest Falcons vs. Buccaneers odds, and the over/under for the total points is 44.5. Before you make a choice between the Buccaneers and Falcons, make sure check out Thursday Night Football predictions from SportsLine NFL expert Larry Hartstein.

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A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. Hartstein tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. He is coming off a down 2024 NFL season at SportsLine that puts him at 967-821 all-time on NFL sides and props (plus 13.8 units), including 593-518 ATS. Entering the 2025-26 season, he has been profitable in five of six seasons, going 659-564 ATS (plus $3,556 for $100 players).

In addition, Hartstein has gone 21-11-2 on his last 34 picks involving the Falcons, returning well over $800. Anybody following his NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. 

Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Falcons vs. Buccaneers and just locked in his picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Buccaneers vs. Falcons:

Why the Falcons can cover

The Falcons have covered in each of their last three tips to Tampa, and Atlanta is 5-2 ATS overall over these teams' last seven matchups. Atlanta's pass rush has come on strong as of late, averaging 4.5 sacks over the last six games, which is also notable in terms of Atlanta covering as the Bucs are 2-5 ATS when Baker Mayfield is sacked multiple times in a game this season. Speaking of Mayfield, his struggles are a big reason for Tampa's recent woes as he has under 200 yards in four straight games, with more turnovers (five) than passing touchdowns (four) over that stretch. See which team to back at SportsLine, and bet Mayfield to go Under at DraftKings here:

Why the Buccaneers can cover

Tampa's defense can take away what Atlanta does best on offense, and that's running the ball. The Bucs have the No. 8 run defense and have contained Bijan Robinson, as he's averaged just 45.5 rushing yards, at under 4.0 yards per carry, over his last four versus Tampa. There's also the motivation factor in this game, as Tampa is tied with Carolina for the NFC South lead, so it has plenty to play for. Meanwhile, the Falcons were eliminated from any postseason possibility last week, making it unlikely the team will rush Drake London (knee) back to the field after missing the last three games. That would make Atlanta's offense even easier to contain as he had more catches (8) than all other Falcons' wideouts combined (6) in their Week 1 loss to Tampa. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Bucs vs. Falcons picks

Hartstein has analyzed Falcons vs. Bucs from every angle and he's leaning Under on the point total. He has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine, and you can bet the Under at DraftKings:

Who wins Bucs vs. Falcons, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Bucs spread you need to jump on, all from the expert that is 21-11-2 on his last 34 Atlanta picks, and find out.