For for those who lived through the Cold War, the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989 was an unforgettable moment. Ominous guard towers with searchlights and armed guards, minefields in no man's land, the notorious Checkpoint Charlie border post and the Wall itself… everyone was thrown aside in an unusual, popular quest for freedom.
Less than a month later, on December 3, 1989, at a summit in Malta, US President George H. W. Bush and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev announced that after more than 40 years the cold war is over. Everyone agreed that this was a historic turning point.
Fast forward to December 2025, however, and one question remains: Will the Cold War—the West's multilateral global confrontation with Moscow and its allies—ever end? Under the leadership Vladimir Putin Over the past 25 years, Russia has returned to its familiar role as an aggressive, expansionist power pursuing Europe's borderlands. Ukraine, the Baltic republics, Georgia, Moldova and even Poland are again seen as property or spoils.
In retrospect, it seems that the “turning point” of 1989 was not entirely decisive. In fact, it has been turned on its head.
This phenomenon is nothing new. Subsequent generations usually believe that their experiences are unique, but historically, factually, and ideologically they are usually wrong. When major geopolitical shifts occur, they are breathlessly described as “historic” and “unprecedented.” Because history is understudied, because perspective is limited by the span of human life, because the same mistakes are repeated over and over again, important events are celebrated as watersheds, milestones, and epochal turning points. This is almost always not the case.
Think about Arab Spring 2010–2011a series of uprisings was heralded as a Middle Eastern democratic renaissance. These hopes were soon realized. Remember the events of September 11, which led the United States to declare a “global war on terrorism.” This was also considered unprecedented at the time. However, if there were any lasting changes, it was the damage done to international law, respect for sovereignty and human rights. Think about Afghanistan. Think Iraq. Both invasions are now widely seen as mistakes.
In a world fixated on sensational, supposedly seismic upheavals, the realization that many such events are false dawns—the products of national delusions, strategic miscalculations, and ahistorical delusions—is useful and reassuring. Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is disaster for Russia. Brexit has been both challenging and instructive. Now – too slowly – it's happening painfully inverted.
There is a lot to be said about continuity, and there is much more geopolitical continuity here than is usually allowed. Despite the discord, schisms and confusion caused by far right politicians promoting nationalist-populist panaceas, culture warriors campaigning to change the world, and unregulated online media fanning hot spots and spreading disinformation, the fundamentals don't change much.
Revolutions are overrated, inherently unpredictable, and usually accompanied by counter-revolutions. True turning points in history are actually quite rare – and difficult to spot. Leaders who truly change the world are even rarer. Donald Trump presents a case study.
According to Trump, he is Alexander, Charlemagne, George Washington, Napoleon and Mahatma Gandhi rolled into one. However, after a decade at the top of US politics, there are few major achievements. His peacekeeping is failing, his economic and trade tariff policies are faltering, his personal approval rating falls. Towering ego, ignorance, vulgarity and bottomless narcissism are Trump's only exceptional traits.
Right now, the global and domestic upheaval unleashed by Trump and Maga feels transformational. Their symbol is the new US national security strategy – authoritarian, anti-EuropeanCharter for the severance of the transatlantic alliance. There is a cry from all sides: “The old order is dying. Chaos is coming!” However, looking at the round, Trumpian's moment is fleeting. Trump, 79, has a maximum of three years left in office. Even if the Loyalist wins in 2028 (and that's a huge if), no heir can match his monstrous appeal. His coalition Mage gap.
Trump is said to have forever changed the way Americans view the world. But they said this about the “America First” isolationism of the 1930s, and that didn't last long either. Time will tell that the Trump era will be less a turning point than a bizarre aberration—a kind of Prohibition for populists. In the larger picture of history, Trump is a blot, an unsightly blot on the canvas.
At an alarming moment in world events, when tectonic plates are shifting (to repeat another melodramatic cliché), it is important to stay grounded, to maintain perspective. As 2026 trembles towards the door, nursing a hangover from the tumultuous year that just ended, try counting continuities and bridges rather than dwelling on earthquakes and chasms.
In the presence of free choice (that's the whole point), democracy, despite all its shortcomings, continues to be preferred control system all over the world. Divisive far-right and neo-fascist parties remain largely on the periphery; they don't rule. Authoritarian leaders such as Putin, China's Xi Jinping and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu have no recognized successors, not least because they fear usurpers. When they are gone—and that won't be for long—successor governments may opt for reform, as they did after Stalin and after Mao.
Most countries still support the UN and respect international law. Music, film, theater and the arts in general continue to unite and connect the peoples of the world, as does sport, the great global equalizer. Religious faithIn the broad sense of the word, it acts as a timeless, superhuman unifying force, despite the distortions of extremists. And the pursuit of knowledge and understanding, through schools, universities, scientific research, historical research, books, scientific research and technological innovation, advances inexorably with each new generation.
If there is one wish for 2026, it is that there will be no great geopolitical twists, epic spasms or watersheds in 2026 (with possible exceptions for the defeat of Putin and the resignation of Trump). Most people, given the opportunity, would surely choose to live their lives peacefully, seeking to improve their lot and the lot of others, free from meddlesome, deceitful politicians, divisive dogmas, shameful fanaticism, competing great power hegemony, and recurring conflicts.
Let there be no news – let nothing new arise, as the old wistful Spanish saying goes. For a still hopeful, dynamic world haunted by the fear of another cold (or hot) war, this would be a gift and a blessing.
