Using artificial intelligence to determine congressional districts where independent candidates are likely to win, an organization called the Independent Center aims to disrupt the two-party system.
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Artificial intelligence is changing the way many Americans approach problems. Students turn to ChatGPT to do their homework, newlyweds ask it to plan their trips. People are even turning to chatbots for advice about their personal lives. And now the organization suggests that AI is the key to changing American politics. NPR's Barbara Sprunt brings us this report.
BARBARA SPRANT, BYLINE: Brett Loyd, a political operative who used to work as a pollster for Donald Trump when he was a candidate, opens his laptop and shows me an artificial intelligence tool that he believes will change the face of traditional politics.
BRETT LOYD: We look at tens of thousands of social media posts. It's very polarized right now, right? And can we come in and see what the center is talking about? We can look into this – age groups, party groups, any issue we have.
SPRANT: Loyd runs a nonpartisan data firm and oversees polling and research for the Independent Center, an organization that studies independent voters. His goal is to elect a handful of independent candidates to the House of Representatives next year. This is an audacious goal in a system that has not produced a new independent candidate in 35 years.
LOYD: To give up the donkey and the elephant and actually just run a common sense campaign – now people think, well, yeah, that's cute, but it doesn't work. When did we try this?
SPRANT: He's using this artificial intelligence tool to understand voters' key concerns and find districts where an independent candidate might emerge.
LOYD: We go and look at the level of voter participation. Which counties in America really have low turnout? Because these people don't want to go to the ballot box.
SPRANT: He's also looking at districts with younger voters, which he says resonate with the independent movement.
LOYD: When I say “Gen Z” and “millennials,” people keep rolling their eyes and they sound like children. Well, in the next presidential election, these children will make up more than half of the electorate.
SPRANT: Adam Brandon is a senior adviser at the Independent Center and formerly ran the conservative grassroots group FreedomWorks. He says that unlike traditional polling methods, AI tracks what people are saying in real time.
ADAM BRANDON: The survey is a snapshot in time. On Tuesday at 11 o'clock when you got the call or you were in the focus group, that's how you felt. But then you went home and saw something, and your views – we can look at it.
SPRANT: He says those trends helped identify 40 districts that an independent candidate could win.
BRANDON: And it actually showed up areas that I didn't think were tapped.
SPRANT: They plan to hire about 10 people and are also using this tool to find candidates. Here's Lloyd.
LOYD: I want to know who in this industry, in this sector, has the most social media posts or the most followers. And he can give me a list of five, ten people. Now 50% of them can be Republicans or Democrats. Fifty percent of them might be people who would be ready to have that conversation.
SPRANT: Loyd says the AI ​​also looks for people who are active in their community, perhaps sitting on the school board or volunteering.
LOYD: They don't typically promote themselves, but their actions leave a trail, and we asked our AI to find that trail.
SPRANT: Brandon points to one case where a candidate was planning to run in his home district until the AI ​​showed that a neighboring district was a better choice.
BRANDON: Another area 30 minutes away, perfect. And that's what they're going to do.
SPRANT: One of the criticisms Loyd says they'll have to overcome is the idea that independent candidates are spoilers, siphoning votes from other candidates without enough support to win outright. Loyd calls this an outdated criticism.
LOYD: In the 1950s, you could buy vanilla or chocolate. When strawberries were introduced, the only people who thought, damn, strawberries are now a choice for the American people, the only people who were unhappy with them were those who sold vanilla and chocolate.
SPRANT: He points to low approval ratings for both parties.
LOYD: This is not good. If everything was great, people would be happy, and there wouldn't be such a big rush to declare yourself independent in the last 10-15 years. We didn't create this. We just said there should be more opportunities.
SPRANT: Last year, Gallup found that a record 43% of Americans described themselves as independent.
DAVID BARKER: There are a huge number of people who can't stomach either side.
SPRANT: This is David Barker, professor of government at American University.
BARKER: For the first time in a long time, a majority of Americans identified as independent. And this appears to signal a rather important shift.
SPRANT: And at a time when House power teeters on a knife's edge, winning even a few seats could ruin either party's chance of winning a majority and end the way the House operates.
Barbara Sprunt, NPR News.
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