As a result of Trump's policies, the IEA halved its forecast for U.S. renewable energy growth by 2030 to about 250 GW. Carbon Brief analysts estimate that by 2030, as a result of Trump's policies, the country will emit 7 billion tons more CO₂ equivalent than if the country had met its obligations under the 2015 Paris Agreement, from which he is withdrawing.
The decline in renewable energy growth comes as the nation's demand for electricity rises due to the growth of data centers, many of which are seeking gas or nuclear power plants because they need constant, reliable power.
Gas turbine manufacturers are struggling to meet demand, and construction of new nuclear power plants is often delayed.
Retail electricity prices have already risen 5 percent since July, according to the Energy Information Administration, and some experts warn they could rise even more if supplies are constrained. “The writing is on the wall,” says Paul Lescano, director of energy and renewable energy for CBRE’s real estate group.
Renewable electricity advocates say the U.S. is missing out on the revolution in cleaner, cheaper technology sweeping the world, with some comparing it to the aging cars on Cuban roads.
But the relationship between renewable generation and consumers' energy bills is complex. Free solar or wind power means the wholesale price of electricity generated from renewable sources is lower, but developers still need to recoup their investment and grid operators may have to step in to ensure continuity of supply when wind and solar are weak.
“Even as the cost of generating electricity from renewables falls, consumers may not see an immediate or proportional reduction in their bills, raising questions about the impact of renewables on electricity affordability,” the IEA said in its latest report.
More broadly, the U.S. focus on fossil fuels and shift away from support for clean energy is further ceding influence over the future global energy system to China.
The US is trying to tie its trading partners to fossil fuels, pressuring the EU to buy $750 billion of American oil, natural gas and nuclear technology during his presidency as part of a trade deal, derailing an initiative to begin decarbonizing global shipping and pressuring others to reduce their dependence on Chinese technology.
But falling prices for solar panels in particular speak for themselves in many parts of the world. Experts warn that the U.S. attack on renewable energy could cause long-term damage to its competitiveness vis-à-vis China, even if the Trump administration is followed by one more favorable to renewable energy.
“China has come a long way in terms of competitiveness,” says Antonio Cammisecra, chief executive of ContourGlobal, an independent power producer.
“The US is capable of recovering, but it will take time.”
Additional reporting by Ahmed Al Omran and David Pilling. Data visualization by Jana Tauszynski.
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