The analyst who predicted the Witcher 3 expansion would release in 2026 told me they were “100 percent sure.” [CD Projekt Red] will release significant new content this year.”
I wrote to Noble Securities analyst Mateusz Chrzanowski after the company's report said: “We expect the next paid expansion pack (DLC) for The Witcher 3 to release in May 2026.I wanted to know how confident Chrzanowski was in this prediction and what it was based on.
If you remember, I asked a similar question to Boris Nepelak, another person credited with starting the rumors about this surprise Witcher 3 content release. Nepelak confirmed this information and said it had been verified by several independent sources.
Chrzanowski, whose information I'm told comes from publicly available sources and conversations with CD Projekt Red, seems equally confident. “I am 100 percent confident that CDPR will release significant new content this year,” Chrzanowski told me, “as the stimulus program is still 700 million zlotys short.” [GBP 144m]”
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This “incentive program” is at the heart of Chrzanowski's reasoning. It is part of the salary of CDPR's key employees, usually management, and is designed to incentivize them by granting additional shares if certain financial goals are achieved. Prosper, earn wealth, in general.
To qualify, CDPR must earn PLN 2bn (£412m) in cumulative net profit between 2023 and 2026, PLN 3bn (£617m) between 2024 and 2027 and PLN 4bn (£823m) between 2025 and 2028, Chrzanowski explained. And this is the first threshold bracket on which special pressure is applied. “Currently 700 million zlotys [£144m] needed to reach the first threshold as there are only five quarters left,” Chrzanowski said. “This implies a need for much more than just another update or version for a niche platform.”
But what does CDPR have that it can release? Since then, the company has not released any new games. Cyberpunk 2077 extension Phantom Freedom at the end of 2023, although this brought Cyberpunk 2077 will be coming to Switch at the same time as the console's release last year, and it seems to have worked out very well. Cyberpunk 2077 continues to sell surprisingly well. passing the 35 million sales mark last year and holding on just as strong as highest grossing game on Steambut it will take more than that to make up the shortfall in the stimulus program. However, the next announced game in development is The Witcher 4 won't be released until 2027and probably not any time soon. In other words: after the first threshold ends, the bracket ends.
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By the way, CDPR mentioned this incentive program in its earnings call late last year.when he said there was a “chance” he would release new content to help reach the first milestone. “Given our current progress, there is a possibility that new content hinted at in recent calls and reports could be released next year, which would impact our results and increase the likelihood of meeting the revenue requirement for the first round of the stimulus program.”
“In 90 percent of cases we are talking about an add-on to The Witcher 3”
This is precisely what lies behind Chrzanowski’s prediction. “In 90 percent of cases, we are talking about an add-on to The Witcher 3,” Chrzanowski said. “This is a natural direction in terms of the required scale of income. However, a witcher themed game such as Miracle Worker (Fool's Theory's latest production) would also be possible. Remember, The Fool Theory was built on veterans of The Witcher.
I rewatched The Miracle Worker in 2024. and was inspired by this. In terms of presentation it was a bit dated or rather limited to what a small team could achieve, but interestingly it was different. It told a story set in Warsaw, Poland, at the turn of the 20th century—a setting I had not played in before—that revolved around a magician known as the Miracle Worker: a man with the ability to read people's minds and fight the real demons living there. It was strategic, thoughtful, authentic and unique.
Naturally, my interest was also heightened by The Thaumaturge being the debut game studio hired for The Witcher 1 remake. We know the remake has stalled a bit as 'Fool Theory' helps The Witcher 4 The team is struggling with Unreal Engine 5, which will also use the remake of The Witcher 1 – CDPR's Red Engine is left behind. But according to rumors, Fool's Theory will also create a new expansion for The Witcher 3.
“It's worth noting that CDPR doesn't mince words,” Chrzanowski added, “so having such a strong indication of new content in the report and during the conference is reassuring, especially since claims that the incentive program's goals have been achieved have been around for a long time. The Miracle Worker premiered in March 2023, so The Witcher has been a priority ever since. The team grew from 60 to 100 people. However, some support the development of The Witcher 4 and are waiting for the creation of joint assets.”
This is a compelling argument, but there are still many reasons for skepticism. If there was something in development as significant as an expansion for The Witcher 3 (something that would be comparable to the existing Witcher 3 expansions Hearts of Stone and Blood and Wine), would CDPR risk not doing it in-house? Previous additions have been lavish and famous. But doing it in-house would mean rebuilding a team that moved almost 10 years ago and was working on old technology, and is more than fully committed to making The Witcher 4. It may have been tasked to Fool's Theory.
It also begs the question of what the expansion would be like if it were in development. Geralt essentially retired at the end of Blood and Wine, and The Witcher 4 is led by Ciri. Presumably Ciri's story will be told in The Witcher 4, does this mean Geralt will return? Wouldn't this be confusing in terms of stealing Ciri's thunder? Or could it be a game about someone else entirely – for example, about the sorceress Yennefer? How big will it be and how much will CDPR charge for it? Questions, questions. Let's hope we get answers, and soon.
