Welcome to the online version From the department of politicsThe information ballot, which presents the latest reports and tests of the NBC News Politics team from the White House, the Capitol Hill and the campaign.
In today's issue, Steve Kornaki finds out why the Blue Wave, it seems, does not materialize (for now) for democrats in the intermediate elections next year. In addition, the suspension of the government will last seven days.
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– Adam Wolner
There are no signs of a blue wave, as during the first term of Trump.
Analysis of Steve Cornaki
The blue wave, which interrupted the first term of the president of Donald Trump, could be seen from afar. This time the signs are not so obvious.
By the fall of 2017, in the first year of Trump’s stay in power, the Democrats gained a significant advantage in the general vote in the congress. On this day in 2017, according to the data The average value of the Real Clear Politics surveyThe leadership of the Democrats amounted to 7.8 points. This is an advantage that will more or less last next year, the culmination of which will be the receipt of 40 seats in the intermediate elections of 2018, which gave the Democrats control over the House of Representatives.
Today, on the contrary, The average value of the RCP He has democrats for only 3 points in a general vote. This happens even despite the fact that the general rating of the approval of Trump's work is at the mark of 40 to 40 (similar to his first time) and since he continues to receive negative ratings for how he copes with the economy and inflation.
However, the views of the opposition of Trump today look completely different than eight years ago. In anticipation of the 2018 intermediate elections, the Democrats showed the best (and significantly) better results than the Republicans, according to the party image. This time another story.
Earlier this year, democrats registered their The lowest positive rating in the history of our NBC News surveywhich has more than three decades. Similar results were obtained in other studies.
A significant factor is self -identified democrats expressing adverse views on their own party. This is internal disappointment – in combination with other data showing that these voters want more confrontation positions on the part of their party leaders – helps to explain why the Democrats in Washington supported the suspension of the government.
It also raises the question of what other new tactical or ideological steps can be taken by the leaders of the democrats in order to calm their electorate, and whether a wider electorate will be susceptible to them. During the first period of Trump, independent representatives were less negative about the democrats than the Republicans. Now it is more like washing.
Of course, in order to regain the House of Representatives next year, the democrats do not need a wave; A clean win of only three places will do its job. But the Republicans can ultimately increase this number to unambiguous numbers thanks to the efforts to redistribute the constituencies in the middle of the decade.
As a rule, the opposition party can count on support in the medium term, acting as a means of protest against any discontent that voters want to express to the White House. But in today's atmosphere of strong polarization, some voters who want to express their dissatisfaction with the opposition party can also be found.
Closing, day 7: Trump enhances pressure, as MTG breaks with his party in Obamacare
The White House raised bets on the suspension of the government’s work, since it entered on her seventh day with the project of the memorandum, which states that the dismissed federal employees have no right to delay wages, the White House spokesman Caroline Livitt told NBC News.
A note for the first time published AxiosDespite its own efforts of personnel management September leadershipIt states that federal workers will receive salaries retroactively after quarantine cancellation.
The memorandum also contradicts the law of 2019, which requires the payment of wages to federal workers. The law, called the “Law on Fair Appeal with Public Administrations” from 2019, states that all federal employees, regardless of whether they are sent on vacation or are considered necessary and work without payment, must receive back wages after the end of the quarantine.
Answering the question about the position of the White House about salary arrears, President Donald Trump answered reporters: “I would say that it depends on what we are talking about.” Trump also compared the closure of with “Kamikadze attack“Democrats.
The idea of refusal to pay wages caused an intra -party reaction. Senator Tom Tillis, Rn.C.Having called it a “terrible message” and “bad strategy”.
Speaking about the divisions of the Republican Party: Member of the House of Representatives of Marjori Taylor Green, a Republican from Georgia, broke with her party, urging Obamacare to take measures to avoid raising insurance premiums. Sahil Kapoor News.
IN Long post for xGreen, the extreme right activist Maga, made it clear that she was not in the congress when the law was adopted in 2010.
“Let's say it is possible more pleasant: I'm not a fan,” she wrote. “But I am going to go against everyone in this matter, because when this year the validity of tax benefits expires, my own insurance premiums for adult children in 2026 will double, like all wonderful families and hardworking people in my area.”
“Not a single Republican in the leadership spoke with us about this and gave us a plan for how to help the Americans cope with the doubling of their insurance premiums !!!” Green added.
Answering the question of our colleague Ryan Noble about the comments of Green, the speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson, the Republican from Louisian, replied that she was not part of the committees in jurisdiction and “it is probably not aware of some of them.” He added that “everyone has the right to his own opinion,” but “not everyone knows everything.”
At the airport: The delays in flights throughout the United States stretched on the second day, since the Federal Civil Aviation Department was preparing to increase the lack of personnel at airports against the background of closing. Matt Lavaites and Crings Semashko write.
Maya Rosenberg and Jay Blackman Also pay attention that federal financing of air travel in rural areas will end on Sunday if the quarantine continues.
In the States: Some governors use public funds to leave popular national parks open to tourists. Reporting Rakel Coronella Urist.
🗞️ Other main news today
- ⚖️ SCOTUS: The Supreme Court, it seems, was ready to support the disputing of freedom of speech in the law of Colorado, which prohibits convertible therapy aimed at young people who question their sexual orientation or gender identity, which will probably have national consequences. Read more →
- 🪑 in a hot seat: Prosecutor General Pam Bondi answered senators' questions about the deployment of the National Guard and the arrests of immigrants in the US cities, indictment regarding the former director of the FBI James Komi and files related to Jeffrey Epstein. Read more →
- 🇨🇦 Oh Canada: Trump said that there is “mutual love” between the United States and Canada, but “natural conflict” during a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the White House. Read more →
- 📱 Sprint until November: In the last weeks of the Virginian Governor's race, the Republic of Republican Wins, Wins Erl-Sirs, is trying to connect Democrat Ebigail Spanberger with a fuss about the cruel texts that appeared from the candidate from the Democratic Party to the post of General Prosecutor. Read more →
- 🗳️ If Tuesday: Voters are sent to extraordinary primary elections to take the place of the former member of the House of Representatives of Mark Green in the dark red 7th district of Tennessee. Trump intervened at the last minute, supporting Matt van Epps, a former commissar of the Department of General State Services. Read more →
- ➡️ Explanation: This week, Trump repeatedly proposed using the broad presidential powers granted by the Law on the Uprising, “if necessary”. That's what it is →
At the moment, this is all that is in the policy department. Today's newsletter was compiled by Adam Wallner.
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