The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump

The second republican presidential primary debate passes in less than two weeks, so the time ends with applicants for the Republican Party To meet the qualifications of the Republican National CommitteeField to make debate on September 27, Each candidate must have At least 3 percent support in two qualified national surveys, or at least 3 percent in one national survey and in the same indicator in polls of two different states of early voting on August 1. Each candidate must also provide evidence that he has reached at least 50,000 unique donors in their campaign. And if they have surveys and donors, candidates will again have to sign a promise in order to support a possible candidate from the party 2024 if they want to participate.

When everything stops, there is a decent probability that less candidates will qualify than eight who was present at the first meeting of the party in AugustSix from this octomet, it seems, have donors and polls to make the second debate, and each of them signed the promise of the RNC for the first debate, so there is no reason to think that they no longer sign. Nevertheless, the governor of the Northern Dakota Dag Burgum and the former governor of Arkansas Asa Khatchinson can again experience qualifications under higher sills of September for polls and donors. AND Passing the first debate Despite the fact that he easily selects it – to save the signing of the promise of RNC – former President Donald Trump looks ready To abandon the second debatetoo much.

Fivethirtyeight analysis showed that the governor of Florida Ron landing and the technological entrepreneur with Vice Ramasva had at least 3 percent in each qualification survey (Trump too). Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, former vice president Mike Pence and former Governor from New Jersey Chris Christie met in almost all research, while Senior South Carolina Tim Scott got there about three fourthly from them. And not one of these six candidates showed any signs of complexity when it came to reaching 50,000 donor signs. Even a pence campaign that it was more difficult to attract donors than the majority announced in mid -August that he had enough unique participants to claim the second debate.

11 days until September 25, the qualification period, the survey threshold increases up to 3 percent from 1 percent, is the main obstacle to candidates who do not have qualifications. Burgum announced in late July that he had 50,000 donors, but the analysis of Fivethirtyeight showed that he reached 3 percent in only one national review, Survey in mid -August Aiova from Trafalgar GroupThe Burgum campaign can now say that he scored 3 percent in New Gampshire, based on or 2.5 percent that he received Another survey in mid -August Trafalgar or 4 percent that he reached in Early survey from CO/Effective On behalf of the New Gampshire magazine. We cannot exclude that RNC may consider the second survey Trafalgar, although RNC did not show any signs that he was ready to round the results of the survey It is reported with decimal places during qualification for the first debate. However, because CO/Effective I conducted a Trump survey in this cycleHis survey in New Gampshire is not taken into account In accordance with the RNC survey rule What excludes surveys conducted by organizations with a candidate or committee of candidates.

Nevertheless, regardless of whether he has surveys from one or two early states, Burgum struggled to reach 3 percent in national surveys. It is not surprising that Best of America Pac, Super Pac, supporting Burgum, 4 million dollars for advertising were reserved Between August 30 to September 24. Morning consultationI released data for seven nationwide polls from August 1, but Burgum collected more than 0 percent only once, hit 1 percent in a survey in mid -August This preceded the Super Pac advertising. In fact, Burgum reached 2 percent in only one national survey, in which at least 800 probable republican voters were selected from August 1, Kaplan Strategy Review It is carried out immediately after the first debate.

Meanwhile, Khatchinson needs more polls And Donors to make the scene, although it will probably reach 50,000 participants. Last week, the representative of the campaign said ABC News that Hatchinson is “very close” to the demand of the donor, and He received a surge at the last minute in the participants To get the right to the first debate. At the front of the survey, Khatchinson has something, that Burgum does not have: one national survey of 3 percent or better, thanks Examination of Kaplan strategies conducted before the first debateThe Hatchinson but did not exceed 1 percent in any potentially suitable nationwide survey conducted from the moment of the first debate. And he did not make the best in early state surveys, which makes it unlikely, that he will receive qualification polls from two different states to unite with his same national survey in order to comply with another RNC qualification route.

It is hard to imagine that any other Republican will have a chance to qualify for September debate. The former member of the House of Texas, it seems, will conduct one qualification survey from New Gampshira – Middle August Echelon Insights/Republican Partnership Review on the main street – But, like Burgum and Hatchinson, he tried his best to clear 1 percent in most polls. And while Herd can get to the mark of the donor 50,000his Public refusal to consider the issue of signing the promise of RNC Almost guarantees that it will not work. In addition, businessman Perry Johnson and the host of radio threatened the legal lawsuit Against RNA Affirming that This unfairly kept them from the stage. But even if Johnson and/or the elder can get 50,000 donors – Johnson claimed that I have a lot In mid-August-not, one of the candidates does not have a qualification survey for his name.

Finally, the presence of Trump – or its absence – is loosened in the process of debate. The former president interviews more than 50 percent in On average in the country FiveThirtyeightMake it a clear favorite to win the nomination of the Republican PartyNevertheless, the field nevertheless, while Trump's average value fell slightly after the first debate, he essentially recovered to his position before receiving, assuming that voters did not punish him for missing the event. It is not surprising that it is He seems to intend to miss the second debate and holding counter -testing that evening, as for the first debate When a pre -stretched interview Between Trump and the former owner of Fox News, Tucker Carlson was broadcast at the same time.

With the likely absence of Trump, the second debate again becomes a clash among the leading alternatives of the party, not one of which, seems, is not positioning a serious problem for Trump. Nevertheless, it is very important for these candidates to make the stage of debate, since the inability of qualifications can signal the donors that their campaigns really have no chance of success. Moreover, without Trump did not hold attention, the debate will provide other applicants for the Republicans with the opportunity To see and hear a large audienceThe field is a chance that candidates do not want to dilute, as it could perform in sterling. Could – change the course of their campaignField