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Where do we start with how weird this NFL season has been?
How about this: Kansas City missed the playoffs for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, finishing a dismal 6-11 after averaging about 13 wins and sweeping seven straight AFC Championship games. As for the other five favorites to win the Super Bowl heading into the season, Baltimore and Detroit were eliminated, Buffalo failed to win its division for the first time in six years, and Philadelphia looked like a shell of the team that rolled to the championship last year.
Meanwhile, New England has soared from 4-13 over the past two years to 14-3, upsetting the Bills for the AFC East title, the perennially disappointing Chicago Bears improved by six wins to steal the NFC North, the sleepy Carolina Panthers took the NFC South (with a sub-.500 record), and 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers led Pittsburgh to the AFC North crown.
Wait, that's not all. The top spots are occupied by Seattle and Denver, each led by quarterback Sam Darnold and Bo Nix, respectively, who have never won a playoff game. And the favorite to win the MVP award is 37-year-old Rams QB Matthew Stafford, who missed most of training camp with back pain.
Needless to say, the road to the Super Bowl looks more open than it has in recent years. Here's a look at the first round of the playoffs, which begins this weekend when the six division winners take on a wild-card team while the top-seeded Seahawks and Broncos enjoy a bye.
Los Angeles Rams (12-5) vs. Carolina Panthers (8-9) – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET: All signs point to an explosion. The Rams, a 10.5-point favorite, are arguably the deepest team in the league and have the top-ranked offense, bolstered by Stafford and superstar receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Carolina has emerged as the standard winner of a disorganized NFC South and has the worst quarterback in the playoffs in diminutive Bryce Young. However, the Panthers play at home and beat Los Angeles 31-28 just six weeks ago.
Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) vs. Chicago Bears (11-6) – Saturday, 8:00 pm ET: The NFL's oldest rivals have somehow only met twice in the playoffs, so there are surprisingly few memorable moments between them. A primetime showdown at Soldier Field could fix that. First-year Bears head coach Ben Johnson has worked wonders with talented but erratic QB Caleb Williams, who went 5-12 as a rookie last season, but the second-seeded Bears are actually one-point underdogs against a Packers team that returns star QB Jordan Love and workhorse running back Josh Jacobs. recovering from injuries.
Buffalo Bills (12-5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) – Sunday, 1:00 pm ET: With Mahomes and other leading AFC quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow missing the playoffs this year, everyone continues to say that reigning MVP Josh Allen has “no excuses” if he doesn't reach his first Super Bowl. But the team around him this year is not as good. The Bills' defense has fallen apart, and the glaring lack of talent at receiver puts too much pressure on Allen and star running back James Cook, who led the league in rushing. Jacksonville did the opposite, surrounding Trevor Lawrence with quality receivers and creative new head coach Liam Cohen, who turned their record from 4-13 to 13-4 and won the AFC South. It's arguably the best match of the weekend, with bookmakers viewing it as the top pick and the over/under of 51½ points being the highest on the board.
San Francisco 49ers (12-5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) – Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET: The Eagles were a wrecking ball last year, crushing opponents with Saquon Barkley's 2,000-yard rushing team and ferocious defense en route to destroying Kansas City in the Super Bowl. But the game's MVP, cornerback Jalen Hurts, has looked shaky the last couple of months as star lineman Lane Johnson (the real MVP?) has been sidelined with a foot injury. The good news for grumpy Philly fans is that Johnson is back in practice and the five NFC East champions are favoring a Niner team that overcame a ton of injuries to earn a wild card thanks to a stunning rebounding season from fantasy football MVP Christian McCaffrey.
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) vs. New England Patriots (14-3) – Sunday, 8:00 pm ET: The Patriots took an incredibly soft schedule and ran with it, going from worst to first in the AFC East and winning their first division title since the Belichick-Brady era. And they appear to have found another great coach-QB combination in Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye, who has emerged as a top MVP candidate in just his second year in the NFL. The Chargers are dangerous with a powerful quarterback in Justin Herbert and a smart head coach in Jim Harbaugh, but they haven't won a playoff game in seven years and never seem to be able to get out of their own way. New England enjoys a 3½ lead.
Houston Texans (12-5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET: Say what you will about Rodgers (and we do), but he proved a lot of people wrong by recovering from two disastrous years with the Jets and leading his new team to a surprising division title at an age when most players had long since hung up. However, retirement might look a little more attractive on Tuesday morning after Rodgers faces a tough Houston defense that has allowed the fewest yards in the league. The Texans don't have much firepower on offense (young QB C.J. Stroud has struggled and receiver Nico Collins is their only real star), but their D is fearsome enough to make them three-point favorites on the road.
Other football news:
* The Miami Dolphins fired head coach Mike McDaniel today after finishing 7-10 and losing the playoffs for the second year in a row. Known for his creativity and out-of-the-box behavior, McDaniel went 35-33 in four seasons with Miami and lost both playoff games.
* The college football semifinals begin with No. 6 Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin dumped in late November for LSU, where he will face No. 10 Miami. No. 1 Indiana takes on No. 5 Oregon on Friday night.
