Ernest Hemingway, describing bankruptcy, famously wrote: “It happens gradually and then suddenly.” The same applies to dictatorships. They create the illusion of permanence—until the façade crumbles and decades of repression give way to rapid collapse. Nowhere is this dynamic more evident than in the Islamic Republic of Iran, a theocracy that has ruled for 46 years through corruption, brutality and systemic mismanagement.
In recent weeks, a serious water crisis has propelled Iran into international headlines. President Masoud Pezeshkian himself warned that it is quite possible that water rationing will follow in Tehran. Some of Tehran's life-sustaining reservoirs are already below ten percent full.
The regime claims that this crisis is the result of uncontrollable natural forces. But experts overwhelmingly point to man-made causes: decades of economic mismanagement, dam-building and sabotage projects overseen by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the regime's chronic plunder of resources. The drought may be real, but the catastrophic scale of the disaster is the creation of the regime itself.
And the water crisis is just one of many. Fuel and electricity shortages sparked protests. The economy is collapsing. Unemployment is rising. Public services are failing. The environmental situation is deteriorating at an alarming rate. In November, a forest fire destroyed part of the ancient Hyrcanian Forests, a UNESCO World Heritage site that is home to many endangered species. Meanwhile, half the adult population lacks meaningful work, yet the regime pours billions into the IRGC, missile programs, regional militias and vast surveillance networks designed to suppress domestic dissent.
This convergence of crises exposes a truth that the vast majority of Iranians have long understood: the ruling elite views government not as a means of public service, but as an apparatus of repressive domination. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his supporters view power as something to be hoarded rather than used for the public good. Their instinct is not to solve crises, but to use them as weapons.
We in the UK – and other democracies – recognize that the role of government is to serve and empower its people. The Iranian people understand this too, and for many years they have been working to take back their country and build a secular, democratic republic based on the rule of law and equal rights for every citizen.
This became abundantly clear at a landmark gathering in Washington last month, when more than 1,000 Iranian-American activists gathered to discuss regime change and the path to a democratic future. I had the honor of speaking at the event and listening to the voices of the entire Iranian diaspora – women, youth, scientists, former political prisoners – all who united behind Maryam Rajavi's Ten Point Plan for a Free, Democratic Iran.
One of the most important components of this movement, often underestimated in Western media, is the work of the PMOI/MEK resistance groups inside Iran. These are organized, disciplined, and increasingly courageous networks of men and women who commit acts of civil disobedience, sabotage the regime's repressive infrastructure, and keep alive the flame of nationwide resistance despite extreme personal risk. Their activities range from disrupting state propaganda broadcasts to burning symbols of regime power and organizing protests. The existence and active expansion of the Resistance Units demonstrate both the depth of public opposition and the existence of a highly organized alternative to clerical rule.
This reality also exposes the falsity of Reza Pahlavi's claims – the so-called “Baby Shah” – that he represents the future of the Iranian people. The Iranian public strongly rejected both monarchy and theocracy. The youth leading today's resistance are not interested in replacing one form of dictatorship with another. They want democracy, not dynastic nostalgia; responsibility, not hereditary power. The streets of Iran are sending a clear message: the future will not be determined by exiled pretenders to a throne that was relegated to the dustbin of history in 1979 because of its brutality and rampant corruption.
The meeting in Washington discussed the roles of women, youth, minorities and scientists. Each conversation made it clear that Iran's multiple crises have brought different groups together for a common purpose. This unity has been visible in the country's three nationwide uprisings since 2018, culminating in the 2022 uprising, the greatest challenge to the regime since 1979. It took extreme brutality to suppress it, and the repression continues. Over the past three years, more than 3,000 people have been executed. At least 17 PMOI members are now on death row. And in July, a pro-government publication openly called for a repeat of the 1988 massacre of political prisoners, which killed 30,000 people, 90 percent of whom were PMOI activists.
The regime's obsession with eliminating PMOI is the clearest indicator of where it sees the real threat. And it’s right to be afraid. Its crises are multiplying. Its legitimacy has been lost. And Iranians have openly expressed confidence in NCRI's ability to lead the democratic transition.
As international media continue to cover Iran's water, economic and political crises, they must also recognize the inevitable conclusion: if these trends continue, regime change in Iran is not only possible, but inevitable. Dictatorships fall as Hemingway described: gradually, and then suddenly. Iran has already entered deeply into the “gradual” phase. “Suddenly” may come sooner than many expect.
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