The president blamed for shattering Tanzania’s aura of stability

Tanzania remains reeling from the worst post-election violence in decades, a crisis that has shaken its long-standing reputation as a beacon of peace and stability in Africa.

It has also earned the country rare reproaches from regional and continental organizations.

The death toll is unknown, but families continue to search for or bury relatives killed after the recent controversial poll, which President Samia Suluhu Hassan won with 98% of the vote.

Samia, a soft-spoken leader whose calm and gentle demeanor initially inspired optimism when she took power in 2021 after the sudden death in office of her authoritarian predecessor John Magufuli.

But now the situation has changed.

“Samia has brought Tanzania into a bitter winter of protests, instability and uncertainty,” Professor Peter Kagwanja, a Kenyan political analyst, told the BBC.

The protests, led by young people, drew clear parallels with the global Gen Z mobilizations against entrenched leadership and ineffective governments.

Analysts say that while the unrest was unprecedented in Tanzania, it was preceded by a tense political climate marked by stalled reforms, years of simmering youth anger, power struggles within the ruling party and persistent harassment of opposition leaders.

“The protests were just the culmination of years of anger and grievance that had been building up among Tanzanians,” said Godfrey Mwampembwa, a Tanzanian-born political cartoonist popularly known as Gado.

Gadot's satirical cartoons portraying President Samia as authoritarian and intolerant of political competition were widely circulated on social media.

Veteran Tanzanian journalist Generali Ulimwengu described in his column that the recent elections were “a boiling point reached by public soups that had been cooking in the slow cooker for decades, undetected by a distracted government completely immersed in its gravy.”

Similar sentiments were echoed by Gado, who accused the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party of “burying its head in the sand” and being “deaf” to Tanzanians' growing calls for change.

“CCM has for years disenfranchised the masses and ignored the very institutions of government that keep it in power,” said the satirist, who lives in neighboring Kenya but closely follows events in his home country.

Charles Onyango-Obbo, a political commentator on East African affairs, agrees that the CCM “has long mistaken calm for maturity, but it was just age and arrogance hiding behind a proud history.”

“They confused the silence of the people with peace, not realizing that it was the peace of weariness,” he wrote.

Unlike other countries in the region, the CCM, which emerged from the Tanganyika African National Union, is a post-colonial liberation party that has a firm grip not only on the levers of power, but also on the psyche of the nation.

But it is the nature of this latest election that has revealed a shocking new side of Tanzania, a country long seen as fearful of protests, especially compared to neighboring Kenya.

In the months leading up to Election Day, the CCM government systematically eliminated any real competition, analysts say.

Two main opposition leaders were barred from running in the election: Tundu Lissu is in custody on charges of treason, which he denies, and Luhagi Mpina's candidacy was rejected on a technicality.

According to Professor Kagwanji, this act alone negated what Tanzania and its founding president Julius Nyerere stood for.

“You don't jail your opponents, you seek to get people's support against the opposition,” Professor Kagwanja said.

The 65-year-old president, affectionately known as Mama Samia, is now facing mounting allegations that he leads a repressive government responsible for the brutal crackdown on historic protests.

Her approach to leadership was initially admired both at home and abroad, as she allowed opposition parties to organize rallies and criticize the government without fear of serious consequences.

She promised to reopen Tanzania to the world through her doctrine of the 4Rs – reconciliation, resilience, recovery and reform.

Having been born and raised in Zanzibar, a semi-autonomous archipelago known for its humility and hospitality, it is not surprising that Samia has caused a sense of relief when she comes to power in 2021.

But analysts say that as Samia contemplated a second term, she began to view intra-party pressure within the CCM and a resurgent opposition as a threat to her ambitions.

Over the past three years, she has changed her cabinet several times and replaced military and intelligence chiefs in a move seen as weeding out her predecessor's supporters.

“Within the CCM, she has resorted to the Magufuli playbook of manipulating the party, centralizing power and creating a cabal of trusted loyalists as the new power base,” Professor Kagwanja said.

Samia's calculated political maneuvering, which earned her the nickname “Simba Jike” (Swahili for “lioness”) among her supporters, paid off as the CCM nominated her as its presidential candidate in January.

In the months leading up to the election, a wave of kidnappings, arrests and brutal killings of opposition members swept the country, dashing hopes for reform and reconciliation.

The political space has shrunk dramatically in the run-up to recent elections, which were marred by internet shutdowns and curfews.

According to the opposition, hundreds of people could have died as a result of the unrest after the elections. Authorities have not yet released an official death toll.

The violence was shocking for a nation that had cultivated an image of calm, consensus and order for nearly six decades.

“The myth of Tanzanian exceptionalism lies in ruins,” Mr Onyango-Obbo said.

In a defiant inauguration speech, Samia said the elections were fair and transparent but acknowledged that people had died during the protests. She blamed foreign actors for the deadly protests.

In a rare criticism, the African Union and the regional Southern African Development Community said Samia's election victory did not meet accepted democratic standards, citing ballot stuffing, repression and systemic failings.

The main opposition, the Party for Democracy and Development (Chadema), called the election results “totally fraudulent.”

“Samia’s goal was not to win elections. Instead, she had to win the hearts and minds of Tanzanians and East Africans so that she would be elected in a fair contest. Unfortunately, Samia chose coronation. It has closed all possibilities for a fair fight,” said Professor Kagwanja.

As she begins her second term in office, Samia faces growing international scrutiny that could undermine her legitimacy to lead the East African country, analysts say.

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