Pall analysts will warn that “we need more data” when discussing whether the recently released figures herald genuine trends or whether we are simply reacting to statistical noise. Don't get me wrong: overreacting to posts is a wonderful (and lucrative) click generator in the dopamine-hungry age of social media. But it rarely provides analysis that truly informs voters.
That's why it's useful to look back at where we've been and where we are from time to time, to see if previous interpretations are correct. Back in August, shortly after Pierre Poilievre was duly elected Member of Parliament for Battle River Crowfoot, I wrote for The Walrus: “Every move this fall—in the House of Commons, in public communications and even on social media—will be scrutinized as if it were part of an updated brief that will be submitted for consideration. [at the national convention] in Calgary.” At that convention, in January, delegates will vote on whether Poilievre will remain leader.
In its year-end federal poll, Leger measured more than just opinions of the prime minister. Mark Carney and his government, but also public impressions of the Conservative leader, including whether he should continue to lead his party. Let's study these numbers. First Carney, then the man who hopes to replace him.
TCarney government ends 2025 in a position that can best be described as fragile but stable. Nationally, 51 percent of Canadians approve of Carney's performance as prime minister, compared with 38 percent who disapprove—a decent net approval of +13 for any fourth-term government.
Regionally, Carney has strong approval levels in Ontario (net +22), Atlantic Canada (+27), Quebec (+10) and even the Prairies (+15). The numbers in the Prairies may be a bit of an anomaly (current polling averages don't show the Liberals doing well in the region, for example), but other regions form the backbone of the 2025 Liberal coalition, and this data from last year shows that Carney personally remains the one holding it together, as Carney's own numbers dwarf those of his party.
The picture is even more complex in British Columbia, where the Liberals won a respectable twenty seats in April. Last month, a Leger poll showed Carney's approval in the province at +11, but those numbers have since fallen, with 46 per cent approving of Carney's government but the same percentage disapproving. Net zero approval in a province so important to the Liberals' success should raise alarm bells at party headquarters. What's happened? Statistical noise or direct impact of the Canada-Alberta memorandum of understanding on potential pipeline connecting Alberta with the Pacific coast? We need more data.
As for Alberta, it remains Carney's toughest region, with 40 percent approval versus 49 percent disapproval (net -9). The MOU could yet change minds in 2026, but it's too early to tell.
Carney's approval also signals a clear recovery from early fall declines. His approval dropped to 47 percent in early October amid pre-budget tensions and Cabinet turbulence. By the end of November, it had risen above the 50 percent threshold again.
Again, recent political events may not yet be fully recognized by the public, so caution is warranted. However, the overall trend suggests Carney ended the year stronger than he started the decline.
If Carney numbers show stability, Poilievre's numbers show stagnation. Leger asked the commissioners: “Overall, how satisfied are you with the way the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, is fulfilling his role?” Nationally, 31 percent of Canadians are satisfied with his performance, while 53 percent are dissatisfied. For a leader preparing for a mandatory review, these are sobering numbers.
Only in Alberta does Poilievre have a positive satisfaction rating (+9). Even this difference is modest by historical conservative standards. Elsewhere, its scores are startlingly low: 32 percent satisfaction in British Columbia (net -24), 31 percent in Ontario (net -23) and a steep net rating of -38 in Quebec.
Therein lies the political paradox that defines the Conservative Party at the end of 2025: national voting intentions still show the Conservatives hovering around 40 per cent, often statistically tied with the Liberals.
338Canada's seat forecast continues to show the Conservatives competitive in key regions and within striking distance of the Liberal incumbents. However, Carney is gaining some support from voters outside the Liberal base, while Poilievre remains deeply disliked by voters outside the Conservative Party.
Léger found that 78 percent of Conservative voters were satisfied with Poilievre, versus just 15 percent dissatisfied—a net +63. However, among Liberal voters, the Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party, Poilievre's favor barely registers. In contrast, Carney has +18 overall approval among NDP voters (55 percent approve, 37 percent disapprove). And while Carney's approval among Bloc supporters is a weak -24, he is miles ahead of Poilievre among the same group, where a whopping 73 percent are dissatisfied (net satisfaction -58).
Unpopular leaders can win elections even if the incumbent is even less popular. But that is not the case here: among the general electorate, opinion polls in 2025 agree that Carney's numbers are vastly superior to Poilievre's.
Tbrings it Fast forward to January, when Poilievre faces a vote of confidence at the National Conservative Convention in Calgary. Léger asked: “Do you want Pierre Poilievre to remain leader of the Conservative Party of Canada or to resign?”
Half of respondents (49 percent) want Poilievre to leave, while only 32 percent want him to stay. East of the Manitoba-Ontario border and in British Columbia, most would prefer the Conservatives replace their leader.
But management decisions are not made by the general electorate. They decide members: activists and volunteers who tend to be much more ideologically aligned with the leader than with the public at large. The gap between Poilievre's domestic support and his public image has become a defining feature of his leadership and could certainly influence the results of the January vote.
Breaking down responses by party preference, Leger found that 78 percent of Conservative voters want to stick with Poilievre, versus just 13 percent who want him to resign.
While these results are not unanimous, they clearly indicate that the majority of Conservative voters intend to support their leader. Given the likelihood that party membership is even more favorable to Poilevre than the voter base, he could walk away from the Calgary convention with decisive support – perhaps even in the 90 per cent range.
Léger's data paints a picture of the two parties entering 2026 from sharply opposed positions. The Liberal coalition assembled under Carney could be seriously disrupted if the New Democrats rally around their new leader next spring or if soft-nationalist voters in the Montreal suburbs return to the Bloc. The duct tape holding this coalition together is Carney's personal popularity, a notoriously short half-life glue in national politics.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives, led by a man whose unpopularity is matched only by his persistence, remain electorally competitive. despite their leader. But beyond party members making decisions in Calgary, another vulnerability arises: caucus management.
As Ian Fleming famously wrote in Goldfinger“Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is an enemy action.” The loss of Annapolis MP Chris d'Entremont to the Liberals could be seen as a fluke. The announcement of the resignation of Edmonton-Riverbend MP Matt Genero remains vague and could very well be coincidental. But the floor crossing between Markham and Unionville Rep. Michael Ma last week now moves that pattern into more dangerous territory.
Whether the party will act on the warning signals is another matter. He will have a clear opportunity to replace Poilievre in January, but Conservative voters appear to have little appetite for it. If anything, the numbers suggest they are willing to follow him through hell and high water.
