Seven weeks ago the Jaguars were still What team: loose, entertaining, unreliable. One that could light a quarter on fire and then spend the next three destroying it. Now they are a wagon.
After beating the Broncos on Sunday, the Jaguars have won six straight. They won 11 regular season games for the first time since 2007. And with two winning games to end the season, they have a solid path to the No. 1 seed as the AFC potentially goes through Jacksonville.
It's a bit of a twist. Just a couple of months ago, Jacksonville managed to muzzle a lead in Houston, slipping to 5-4 and losing four of five. In most Jaguars seasons, this is when the floor drops. A murmur begins. Then the leak, the struggle, the familiar feeling of drifting. You know how it goes. If there's one unifying thread in Jaguars football, it's that their best teams find new ways to disappoint.
But this is no ordinary Jaguars season. Instead of folding, they hardened. A smart trade and a well-timed bye week gave the Jags a chance to catch a break. By adding wide receiver Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline, first-year head coach Liam Cohen was able to overhaul his offense. He doubled down on the team's power play, leaned on Meyers' reliability and allowed Trevor Lawrence to play his more natural style of throwing the ball downfield and picking it up with his feet.
With a revamped offense and a stifling defense, the Jags crushed the Chargers, although they did see a healthy dose of Trey Lance at quarterback. Then they calmed down and beat the league's dregs: the Cardinals, Titans, Riley Leonard-led Colts and the tanky Jets.
Beating the bottom half of the AFC is one thing. But Sunday was different. Led by strong play from Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars marched into Denver and demolished one of the league's best teams with a 34-20 victory that shocked the Broncos and the entire playoff picture.
Lawrence was a constant. He completed 23 of 36 passes for 279 yards, three touchdowns, ran for another and rarely looked inconsistent against a defense designed to embarrass defenders. A week earlier, he crushed the Jets with the best performance of his career. But the exposure of the hapless Jets is easy to dismiss. Doing it in Denver at this point says more about where Lawrence and the Jags are at.
It wasn't a failure from the start. Denver matched Jacksonville's shot for shot in the first half and third quarter to tie the game 17-17.
The turning point came on the Jaguars' first play back from halftime. Two penalties did the damage. First, Lawrence's rough pass call flipped the field position. Then, in the end zone, Jadeja Barron was flagged for pass interference while attempting to recover on Parker Washington. The noise intensified. Lawrence calmed things down by running untouched into the end zone for a 24-17 lead.
From that point on, the Broncos never recovered. There was no second-half wizardry from Bo Nix, no late push to save the day. Denver lost three games. Jacksonville scored again. A fumbled pass between Nix and Jahleel McLaughlin led to the Broncos' first drive, which the Jaguars turned into a field goal. When Nix took a throw down the sideline late in the fourth quarter, Jarrien Jones intercepted it to effectively end the game.
Cohen was brought to Jacksonville to explore Lawrence's potential. He was the promised prince, the number one overall pick with huge potential. The couple's early results were difficult. There was obvious tension. Cohen's formulaic choreographic style did not mesh with Lawrence's freewheeling style. The Jaguars struggled to line up. They struggled to take pictures. They committed more penalties than any other offense in the league. Once the ball was in play, the passing game was hampered by drops, Brian Thomas Jr.'s regression and an inability to figure out what to do with Travis Hunter. Despite the loud firepower, Cohen built his unit around a run-oriented offensive line and tight end Brenton Strange. It wasn't the flame-throwing attack that was envisioned when one of the league's best offensive minds teamed up with Lawrence's untapped potential.
Now those early teething problems are gone. Meyers brought a sense of reliability. He does all the dirty work of a receiver: blocking, attacking the middle of the field, creating space for others and making tough combat catches. Since acquiring Meyers The Jags rank 8th in EPA/Play. and fifth in rollback success rate. Sometimes all it takes is a receiver who knows where to be and catch the ball.
And Lawrence went supernova. In his last four games, he has thrown 13 touchdowns with zero turnovers. He is encouraged to use his legs more and regularly makes incredible throws.
There is also something else. There is an order to his game – control. Even at his best, Lawrence always played with some degree of chaos. He makes complex things look easy and simple things look difficult. But in a tight system with reliable pass catchers, he found his mojo. He plays in the midfield, where he has had problems throughout his career, and rarely puts the ball in danger.
Pair a revamped offense with a defense that thrives on turnovers, and the Jaguars suddenly look like a legitimate contender.
The win improves Jacksonville to 11-4 with games remaining against the Colts and Philip Rivers-led Titans. The idea of the conference playoff road passing through Jacksonville is no longer a punch line.
MVP of the week
Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers. Sunday was a good reminder of what Herbert looks like when he's not under constant siege. Despite their 12th offensive line option of the season, the Chargers limited the Cowboys' pressure rate to 39%, which says as much about the Cowboys' pass rush as anything. But for a quarterback who was regularly pressured by more than half of his defenders, it must have seemed like an easy day's work for Herbert. It definitely looked like it. Even with a broken right hand, Herbert torched Dallas, completing 23 of 29 pass attempts for 300 yards and two touchdowns in a 34–17 victory. He added another 42 yards and a score with his legs.
Video of the week
“Chaos.” That's how Aaron Rodgers described the crazy ending to the Steelers-Lions game that gave Pittsburgh a 29-24 road win.
In an effort to win the game, the Lions moved the ball to the Steelers goal line. They confidently scored a touchdown with 25 seconds left before the ball was called back due to an offensive pass interference call. Detroit then missed three throws in the end zone, leaving them with their fourth loss of the game — and possibly the season. Jared Goff hit Amon Ra St. Brown near the end zone, who was pushed back before passing the ball back to his defender at the eight-yard line. Goff picked up the pitch and dove through the plane to score the winning score. But the play was again called back for OPI, overturned the touchdown and ended the game, but not before the head referee did his best WWE impression, taunt the Detroit crowd that they won. “13 years ago, I was part of a game that was so chaotic,” Rodgers said after the game. “However, there were also substitute judges.”
Statistics of the week
And now for the throw of the year:
59.6 yards. That's how long Caleb Williams' touchdown strike to DJ Moore flew through the air. Saturday night's finale was a classic. The Bears came back from behind and found a way back to beat the Green Bay Packers. win 22-16 in overtime. Six times they conceded the last two minutes of normal time and six times they came away with a victory – more than any team has managed in a single season since the merger. This time they needed to overcome an offside kick (only their second recovery this season), a failed Packers punt and a laser from Williams to get the job done.
Football is better when the Packers-Bears rivalry is alive and well. And there's a good chance we'll see a third matchup in the Wildcard round.
Elsewhere in the league
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The playoffs are taking shape. So far, five teams have won: the Seahawks, Bears, Eagles, Rams and 49ers. In the AFC, only the Broncos and Patriots have won, with seven more spots remaining open.
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After a disappointing loss to the Seahawks on Thursday, the Rams fired special teams coach Chase Blackburn. Special teams have played a role in three of the Rams' four losses this season, with constant breakdowns in the kick and return game. This is the first season coaching change Sean McVay has made in his career. “We've been focused all week on getting back down the field and on the left side,” Seahawks returner Rashard Shahid said after his touchdown that sparked Seattle's comeback. “We knew they had a weak spot on their special teams and we were able to get past the punt team and make big plays.” The Rams rank first in offensive and defensive DVOA through 16 weeks, but rank 30th in special teams DVOA. You can't ignore one phase of the game and expect to win close playoff games.
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This streak, stubborn as always, continues. The Steelers won their ninth game of the season in Detroit, meaning Mike Tomlin secured his 19th straight winning season as a coach. Questions about Tomlin's future are getting louder – even at home there are chants of “Fire Tomlin” – and he continues to answer the only way he's ever known: by winning.
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NFL will be investigate the confrontation between Steelers wide receiver DK Metcalf and a Detroit fan. Metcalf appeared to punch a Lions fan after words were exchanged near the end zone. Metcalf told former NFL wide receiver Chad Johnson that the fan called Metcalf a racial slur and insulted his mother. “My words don’t matter because it was on camera,” said a fan Detroit Free Press. When asked what his name was, the fan replied, “My name is 'Big.' Detroit Lions Fan Ever, who was attacked by DeKaelin Zacharius Metcalf. “What, my full name isn't DeKaylin Zecharius Metcalf,” he said. “He doesn't like his government name. I called him that and then he grabbed me and tore my shirt.”
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If you want a reminder of the greatness of Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs came out on top in a blowout loss to the Titans. After Mahomes was lost for the season, the Chiefs looked unprepared and disorganized, losing 26-9 to one of the league's worst teams. The Chiefs lost backup quarterback Gardner Minshew to an anterior cruciate ligament injury in the first quarter, forcing former undrafted quarterback Chris Oladokun into action. But despite Oladokun minimizing mistakes, the Chiefs looked lifeless on offense. Next up is the Christmas Day game against the Broncos. Gather the family around!
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The Buccaneers' season is winding down. With a 23-20 loss to the Panthers, Carolina now takes sole possession of the division lead in the NFC South. The two will face each other again in a couple of weeks in a game that could decide the division and their playoff hopes. But the Bucs are in free fall. They have lost six of their last seven matches and appear to be short of ideas on how to turn the season around.
