President Donald Trump won in 2024 on the strength of the economy. He promised voters that he would lower prices on the first day, and people foolishly believed him. But what does he care? The candidate has one task – to be elected – and he managed to do it.
The same emphasis on cost of living issues also contributed to Zoran Mamdani's rise from relative obscurity to becoming New York's Democratic candidate for mayor. He put accessibility at the center of his campaign and beat out more established competitors. It's a model that Democrats will lean on during next year's midterm elections and into the 2028 cycle—not just because it works, but because it's right. If government doesn't exist to make people's lives better, then what's the point?
That's why latest Economist/YouGov poll should raise alarm bells among Republican strategists everywhere. Nearly half of respondents listed top concerns that reflect basic costs and conditions of daily life: inflation (24%), jobs (12%) and health care (11%). It's just that Republicans are weakest on these issues.
Trump broke through with some low income voters in 2024, taking advantage of anger over rising prices. But this anger did not disappear: it turned against him. His supporters still feel the pinch, and no slogan or scapegoat will fix that. Inflation is the only problem he can't talk to get outand it only gets worse.
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Beyond so-called illegal immigration, which remains a persistent conservative rallying cry, the Republican electorate is concerned about economic problems. And this is fertile ground for Democrats. And they don't have to win over all those restless voters—just a small portion of them will change the map.
Trump's approval rating remains deeply low (38% approve, 54% disapprove), with many conservatives unhappy with his performance. Meanwhile, moderates have largely abandoned it. Among those who voted for Trump in 2024, a significant portion—15%—now disapprove of the job he is doing. There's a gap big enough between disgruntled Trump voters and those who stayed home last time to matter.
Perhaps the most telling number in the survey shows how people view the economy itself. Only a small minority (19%) think the situation is improving, and even among Trump voters less than half they say the economy is getting better. Typically, supporters rally around their president, showing optimism due to their loyalty. Not this time. A significant portion of Trump's base believes the economy is heading in the wrong direction. This is new and dangerous for him.
It's no coincidence that roughly one in five Trump voters believe the economy is getting worse, disapprove of his presidency and cite inflation as their top concern. This cluster of discontent could be enough to derail the race or, just as importantly, reduce Republican turnout altogether.
Add to this the vast majority of independents who believe the situation is getting worse, and Democrats have a real opportunity to expand their coalition.
During the 2024 campaign, Trump's most effective ad featured Vice President Kamala Harris talking about gender confirmation surgery for prisoners. It was unsuccessful due to transphobia.survey shows that a majority of Americans support protecting transgender people from discrimination, but because it reinforced the perception that Democrats were talking about issues far removed from people's daily struggles.
Democrats won't make this mistake again. This cycle, their message will focus squarely on the economy, more so than even Bill Clinton's famous statement:It's the economy, foolWith Republican chaos sabotaging the economy from the White House to state legislatures, Democrats have more than just a chance to win next year.
