The home affordability crisis — not fake news

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Homeowners vote red. Tenants vote blue.

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Will President Donald TrumpWill a 50-Year Mortgage Make You a Red Voter?

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That's what the president hoped Saturday when he floated the idea of ​​extending the usual 30-year mortgage terms to 50 years.

It turns out that this idea is smoke and mirrors. But at least Trump acknowledges that housing affordability is a real crisis and not fake news.

“Accessibility” was a campaign slogan that produced big victories on Election Day, and most of the winners were Democrats.

Buying a home is becoming increasingly impossible. According to the National Association of Realtors, the average age of first-time home buyers has barely reached 40. Many women are worried that they'll hit a brick wall and won't be able to have any more children, and they still can't afford their first home.

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In 1991, the average age of those buying their first home was 28, but in the last few years this has become a pipe dream for people even in their 30s. The implications are enormous, not only for starting a family, but also for voting.

Renters' preference for Democrats is nearly double, according to the American National Election Study. Homeowners are twice as likely as renters to identify as “strong Republican,” reports Aziz Sunderjee, an economist who analyzed the data over several decades.

Since the 1970s, renters have been slightly more likely to vote Democratic than Republican, but they have shifted sharply to the left over the past 20 years.

Making homeownership achievable is smart policy.

Ensuring homeownership is more than just good policy. For Republicans, this is smart politics.

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In New York, people in their 30s who make good money (up to $120,000 or more, according to economic reporter John Carney) can't take the step toward homeownership. In mayoral elections there is strong support for democratic socialists elected mayor Zohran Mamdani came from areas of Brooklyn populated by “mobile professionals who make do with cramped rental apartments and roommates.” They have “no hope of buying a house,” Carney reports.

Stunned by the election results across the country last week, Trump floated the idea of ​​the 50-year mortgage on Truth Social, posting side-by-side photos of himself and Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who developed the 30-year mortgage after the Depression to provide relief to homeowners.

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A 50-year mortgage makes no sense because it is prohibited by, among other things, the Dodd-Frank Act. But there are tangible steps to help first-time buyers get into the market.

Lower mortgage rates will help. Many current homeowners, especially seniors who would like to downsize, are locked into their current homes because they are financed at low rates. If they sell and buy a new property, they will have to pay higher interest rates. So they wait, removing urgently needed supplies from the market.

Trump has been urging Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell throughout to lower interest rates. It has already done so twice, in September and October, and some are predicting another increase in December.

The problem of supply and demand

But in the long run it is a supply and demand issue. To increase the supply of new homes for sale, builders must be confident that buyers will be able to pay the price. According to the National Association of Home Builders, homebuilder confidence stood at 37 out of 100 at the end of October. What will boost their confidence? Job growth and consumer confidence.

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WITH End of government shutdownLabor market data will soon be available again. The builders will be watching.

In the meantime, politicians will be watching the polls. Behind the polls is widespread dissatisfaction that the American dream of homeownership is far from being realized. Republicans hoping to make a mark in next year's midterm elections better pay attention.

Meanwhile, Democrats know where their votes lie: renters. In many states, Democrats are pushing cities with predominantly single-family housing to build multifamily housing, including rental apartments for low-income families. Trump calls it “the Democrats' war on the suburbs.”

In Connecticut, leftists backing Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont are pushing a bill this week that would dictate how much affordable rental housing will be built in each region of the state. Forcing smaller Connecticut towns like Easton or Wilton to build apartment buildings and accommodate a large influx of renters would increase property taxes as towns would have to build sewer lines, bus lines and more schools. The higher property taxes become, the further out of reach purchasing a single-family home becomes, especially for first-time homebuyers.

But Democrats are ignoring these objections. They know the fundamental truth. The more renters move to a red city, the more likely it is that city will turn blue.

– Betsy McCaughey is the former Lieutenant Governor of New York State and the chair and founder of the Committee to Reduce Infection Mortality.

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