Tweather in Belem, wrote The Guardian's environment editor offers a useful metaphor for the UN climate talks taking place in a Brazilian city. The sunny morning begins with blazing optimism before clouds gather over the Amazon and the deluge begins. Cop30 followed the same pattern. It started sunny – the agenda was agreed upon on the first day. The storms were shelved until later “consultations” on climate finance, border carbon tariffs and how to close the gaping gap between national climate commitments and the Paris Agreement's safe path. They are waiting for the second week of Cop30.
There will likely be more than just squalls. International Energy Agency confirmed Last week it was announced that the era of fossil fuels was ending. The annual report says the world will peak in coal, oil and gas production this decade, followed by a decline. Economist Fadel Kaboub, who advises developing countries on climate issues, asserts this is not “because of political will, but because the economics of renewable energy are winning.” Africa could produce about 1,000 times more electricity than it will need in 2040, he said, and that electricity could be exported. However, on a global scale, hydrocarbon consumption is falling too slowly. The fight for money and a just transition matters at Cop30.
The debate is how to keep temperatures to just 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Global South pushes agreement Article 9.1which says rich countries “must provide” the funds developing countries need to transition to a green economy. Rich states return to text article 6which covers carbon markets. Developing countries want the world's rich historical emitters to provide money, mostly for adaptation and ideally in the form of grants. The rich counter that the focus should be on market opportunities to reduce emissions through newly industrialized states. load sharing and government funds mixed with loans as well as private capital. This is not a technical quarrel. This is a fight over who will pay for a managed and equitable transition away from fossil fuels.
The amounts at stake are staggering. Last year, developing countries argued For $1.3 trillion a year for climate finance, the minimum they say is needed to finance resilience and basic infrastructure. What they got was promised $300 billion by 2035, most loans or “mobilized“private finance”. last data shows that a third of the funds materialized. Worst, ActionAidAn analysis of about $19 billion in climate aid over a decade found that less than 3% supported a “just transition” for workers and communities.
Clouds will gather over Belem. The test will be whether this year's UN summit can improve on the situation last year. The absence of Donald Trump – or anyone from his administration – may actually help. Negotiating group of G77 developing countries plus China pushed “just transition mechanism” to formalize climate cooperation, green technology transfer and channeling support into debt-free financing. They are backed up Brazil, South Africa and India. Developed countries claim that this risks delay in achieving climate goals.
Earth led by due to a 2.6°C rise in temperatures this century, leaving the world dangerously unstable but an improvement on the 3.6°C temperature trajectory a decade ago. Richer countries spend billions on their government bond holders but scream poverty when it comes to coughing up the climate emergency they largely created. Cop30 will either see the global North accept that it can – and should – pay its fair share, or it will watch rich countries continue to wring their hands while the planet burns.
